Cheltenham Gold Cup day tips: Best value bets for Friday at the Festival
It's Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup day and Matt Brocklebank is among the winners after The Nice Guy won the Albert Bartlett. Get his best bets for the remainder of the card.
- Matt's Value Bet column, published on the eve of all major race televised meetings, was +39pts for the first two months of 2022 - he also tipped Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase runner-up Funambule Sivola each-way at 50/1, and Coral Cup third Ashdale Bob each-way at 22/1.
Value Bet Cheltenham tips: Friday March 18
1pt e.w. Bua Boy in 2.10 Cheltenham at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt win The Nice Guy in 2.50 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Hes A Hardy Bloke in 5.30 Cheltenham at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Freedom To Dream in 5.30 Cheltenham at 25/1 (General)
Already advised
No standout in Gold Cup
Despite midweek rain no doubt boosting the confidence behind Protektorat and Royale Pagaille, the 2022 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup looks all about the Irish again and A Plus Tard appears well capable of exacting his revenge on stablemate Minella Indo from last year.
Granted, the latter has presumably taken his time to come to hand and looked on the verge of a return to peak form when second in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown, but the Savills Chase looks more likely to produce the winner here.
Galvin emerged on top over Christmas but I’m far from sure the runner-up was at his very best, given the proximity of Kemboy and Melon just behind the front two, and perhaps the monster comeback performance in the Betfair Chase had just taken its toll.
He’s been freshened up since and looks a very fair price around 7/2, for all there are more attractive bets to be had elsewhere on the final day of the Festival.
Oh Boy - what a price
Best of the lot – at the prices at least – is BUA BOY who surely shouldn’t be the outsider of the field in the McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle.
Trained and ridden by Denis Hogan, he’s progressed nicely over the past couple of seasons, landing a bit of a touch at the Galway Festival in July 2020 and very nearly repeating the dose last summer when just denied by Arcadian Sunrise, the front two pulling five lengths clear of The Little Yank, who has won a couple of races since and was third to Good Time Jonny at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival last month.
Arcadian Sunrise went on to win a big Flat handicap at York’s Ebor Festival so it’s a classy enough piece of form and Bua Boy looked a touch unfortunate. He’s been lightly raced since then but went down fighting behind useful mare Dysart Diamond at Listowel in September, before heading over for a crack at the Greatwood Hurdle on the Old Course here in November.
He couldn’t get into it from well off the pace that day, especially after making a mistake three out, but as a result he comes into this on much better terms with not only winner West Cork, but also the likes of Tritonic and Cormier, who have won competitive handicaps since.
Adagio, Camprond, Glory And Fortune and Marie’s Rock are others to have advertised the Greatwood form subsequently, whereas Bua Boy has been put away all winter before an eyecatching prep in a conditions event at Leopardstown earlier this month.
He had no real right to get close to 145-rated winner Whiskey Sour off level weights and duly didn’t, but he kept on for a never-dangerous third after the race was over in earnest, and the seven-year-old comes here a relatively fresh animal.
The BHA handicapper couldn’t go overboard with his mark as he’s already had a look at him this season and a rating of 135 looks perfectly manageable for a horse who should get a strongly-run race run to suit on the New Course this time.
The Nice selection
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle looks quite open and while Ginto, Hillcrest and Minella Cocooner all bring excellent credentials to the table, the one I can’t keep my eyes off is Willie Mullins’ THE NICE GUY.
His profile is so far removed from a typical Albert Bartlett horse, plenty of punters will skip right over him but it was fascinating to hear after his maiden hurdle win at Naas in January that he was actually in training all last season, Mullins just didn’t think he was quite ready to take to the track.
This year he’s come from nowhere to beat a trio of Gordon Elliott-trained rivals in a Fairyhouse bumper, followed up when conceding a stone in weight to useful mare Dorans Weir in a Leopardstown bumper, then won first time out over timber.
The horse he beat eight lengths into second last time emerged from another decent Naas maiden which threw up dual subsequent winner Daily Present, while The Nice Guy also had stablemate Ramillies back in third and the reopposing grey has himself since bolted up in a Punchestown maiden.
The selection pulverised them at Naas, travelling strongly and jumping efficiently to justify very cramped odds, and he looks a massive talent for the future – most likely over fences.
Whether he’s quite ready for a gruelling test of stamina like this is open to debate but Mullins reckons he could be up to the job and I wouldn't be surprised to see him absolutely love the move up to three miles given he’s from the family of former Festival winner and stout stayer Massini's Maguire.
The Brits could be completely outclassed by a strong wave of Irish juveniles in the JCB Triumph Hurdle but having already made the case for Porticello antepost, I’m now drawn to his Gary Moore stable companion Teddy Blue (25/1), who remains something of a blank canvass.
A good ground winner over a mile and three-quarters on the Flat in France, Teddy Blue showed inexperience when beaten first time out over hurdles on heavy going at Lingfield but immediately left that form behind when second to Knight Salute at Kempton.
I'm convinced he'd have beaten Milton Harris’s horse with a neat jump at the last, but he bundled it badly which took away all of his momentum. The second was rallying on the run-in to his credit and looked an unlucky loser on the day.
He’s still racing far too keenly which could all change in a big-field race with more depth to it, but he’ll clearly need another major personal best to be seriously competitive here.
I won’t be getting involved in the Hunters’ Chase and will be watching the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase with interest given this column’s long-range stance on Mount Ida (40/1) for the Grand National.
Take two in Martin Pipe
There are plots everywhere you turn in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle but that includes a couple of outsiders, as well as the obvious ones towards the head of the betting, and I’m keen to have both running for me.
The first is Peter Fahey’s FREEDOM TO DREAM whose form behind Minella Cocooner could obviously have received an almighty boost by the time the Festival finale is run.
No matter how that one fares in the Albert Bartlett, Freedom To Dream looks well capable of making his presence felt from a mark of 135, having been second to Appreciate It in a Leopardstown bumper in 2019 and returned from a layoff with three promising runs earlier this season.
His Punchestown maiden win over Sam’s Choice could have worked out a bit better, admittedly, but he didn’t look out of place in Grade Two company at Limerick after that and the Dublin Racing Festival effort was precisely what you’d have wished for when it comes to a third qualifying run.
He travelled sweetly down on the inside most of the way and was right there matching strides with the principals just before the turn for home, when made to look a touch one paced. That's understandable in a top-class race but the run represented another small step forward and he’s now getting 8lb from reopposing DRF third Hollow Games.
On top of Freedom To Dream’s overall form chance, you’ve got to love the booking of Liam Harrison for him as Fergal O’Brien’s conditional has a very tidy record (3-10) around Cheltenham and continues to impress with the way he goes about his business.
The other one who has been on the radar since the same Leopardstown meeting is HES A HARDY BLOKE.
Noel Meade’s horse caught the eye in a major way when eighth in the big two-mile handicap hurdle on the Sunday, having to come widest of all into the straight and clearly not seen to best effect as a result.
Eoin Walsh wasn’t hard on him once his chance had gone in the straight, still finishing a couple of lengths ahead of last weekend’s Imperial Cup winner Suprise Package, and he runs off just a 3lb higher mark here.
He's been kept to two miles until this point as a hurdler but did win a three-mile point in his youth and his full-brother Empire Steel has winning form over three miles and beyond too, so there could be significant improvement to come for the step up.
Published at 1300 GMT on 17/03/22
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