Cheltenham Festival Tips: Horse Racing Tips for Wednesday

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Value Bet Cheltenham tips: Wednesday, March 13

1pt e.w. First Street in 2.50 Cheltenham at 25/1 (NON RUNNER)

1pt e.w. Unexpected Party in 4.50 Cheltenham at 16/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 14/1 General

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Sit tight in Grade 1 races

The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase rarely fails to capture the imagination and, for all that we have an odds-on favourite in last year’s Arkle winner El Fabiolo, Jonbon, Captain Guinness and a back-to-form Edwardstone should help put on a spectacle befitting this race’s great history.

Jumping issues have been cited as the favourite’s potential downfall but the fact remains, he’s yet to genuinely look like falling and Willie Mullins’ horse taking his chase record to seven from seven looks by far the most likely outcome to the day-two feature.

Punters may try to spice things up by looking for an angle ‘without the favourite’ but there’s no point in forcing it, and I feel much the same when it comes to Mullins’ hot-pots Ballyburn and Fact To File in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle and Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase respectively.

I was all for opposing Ballyburn in the Sky Bet Supreme, had he gone that way instead, as the two-mile race he won at the Dublin Racing Festival was much more of a test than might have been the case due to the bad ground and omission of the last flight. He also got his own way out in front on that occasion, but I’m less inclined to take on the favourite over what looks like being his ideal trip at this point.

Fact To File is very short and I can see why some will be trying to get him beaten, but Broadway Boy was the one I was hoping to get on side in some capacity before his late defection.

Henderson has keys to cracking Cup

Once again, it’s the handicaps where I’m playing and FIRST STREET is a long-time fancy for the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle.

Trainer Nicky Henderson hasn't had a great time of it but things can change for the better just as quickly and, with bookmakers pushing his horses out in the market, I'm keeping the faith.

Henderson has also won the Coral Cup four times in the past - more than any other trainer - most recently with Dame De Compagnie in 2020. There was a hint of controversy at the time of that race as prior to her success at the Festival, connections of Dame De Compagnie won an appeal over a 2lb ‘collateral form’ rating rise, something the appeals committee must have been doubly regretting after not only she landed the Coral Cup but the horse who had boosted her form from earlier in the season (Indefatigable) also went on to land the Martin Pipe.

There's a certain symmetry going on with First Street as the horse was initially bumped up 5lb (to 146) for his respectable 10-length third behind Lossiemouth in the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham on Trials Day, yet he lines up here off 143 – the official handicapper having revisited the overall merit of the form after subsequent defeats for Rubaud and Guard Your Dreams, the fourth and fifth from Cheltenham.

Either way, it’s a dangerous-looking mark for his first start back in handicap company this season, the seven-year-old having essentially been pot-hunting (also ran in the Christmas Hurdle behind Constitution Hill) after a miserable effort when beaten at 1/7 on his chasing debut in November.

The current 143 is only 1lb higher than when second to State Man in the 2022 County Hurdle, while he won last season’s Gerry Feilden off 146 so has clearly got every chance if right back on song, and it just looks like he’s been crying out for a return to this longer trip too.

First Street was successful over two miles and five furlongs at Warwick as a novice way back in August 2021 and I’m amazed it’s taken so long for a return to further, having been third to stablemate Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel Hurdle here last January on his only other attempt at an intermediate distance since.

Henderson has two others further down the weights in Lucky Place and Doddiethegreat, with Nico de Boinville booked for the latter, but First Street can boast a heavy-ground (according to Timeform) win on his CV from earlier in his career and I’ll stick to my guns and Paul O’Brien’s mount, who has undergone another minor wind operation since his last outing to put him right for the big day.

Skelton to strike again in handicaps

Coko Beach is the horse I’ve been itching to back in the Glenfarclas Chase but I’d be doing the name of the column a disservice if I recommended him as a bet at a third of the price he was a week ago, while the race looks likely to be lost to the weather anyway.

I’ll move straight on to the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase and Maskada is a good starting point as she may not have made the step up to Listed/Graded level this time around after signing off last term with victory in this race, but she returns off just an 8lb higher mark.

That might be enough to anchor her, but she did beat Dinoblue by over six lengths, with another three back to 2022 winner Global Citizen, so I can’t rule out a repeat if this has been the target all along which wouldn’t come as a surprise.

Last month's Leopardstown one-two, Madara and Path D’oroux are obvious players here and ground conditions are going to be fine for that pair, but at more than twice the price I’m going to recommend Dan Skelton’s UNEXPECTED PARTY each-way.

He loves getting his toe in too and while this season has been a bit tricky since beating Knappers Hill in a Listed novice event first time back at Chepstow, the handicapper has suddenly offered him a massive chance again.

Bumped up to 146 from 142 after the Chepstow success, he ran an eye-catching fifth behind Ryanair-bound Stage Star in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, but was then pitched into Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at Sandown and Ascot, before returning to Cheltenham with a low-key handicap effort over the intermediate trip on Trials Day.

Held up towards the rear, he never got into much of a rhythm for Fergus Gillard that day as Ginny’s Destiny bossed proceedings on the front end, but he just didn’t give his running for whatever reason and shouldn’t be judged too harshly.

Eased 3lb on the back of it, Unexpected Party has never run in a handicap chase off a mark as low as his revised 138 and, fresh from a subsequent break and down in distance with Harry Skelton back on board, I’m anticipating a much better showing from the lightly-raced nine-year-old.

Published at 1600 GMT on 12/03/24

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