Cheltenham Festival tips: Best value bets for Tuesday March 14 including Ultima Handicap Chase
Our man looks to follow-up Saturday's 11/1 winner with three fresh bets at big prices on day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced +99.40pts profit.
- His winners this year include Aucunrisque in the Betfair Hurdle at 14/1 and Saturday’s 11/1 Wolverhampton pick Dubai Station.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday, March 14
1pt win Chasing Fire in 1.30 Cheltenham at 25/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. The Big Breakaway in 2.50 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt win Romancero Le Dun in 4.50 Cheltenham at 40/1 (General)
Already advised antepost
1pt e.w. Chasing Fire in 1.30 Cheltenham at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
Man may get close to new prince of hurdling
A hugely exciting day in store for the start of the 2023 Festival, headlined by Constitution Hill against State Man in the Unibet Champion Hurdle.
It’s been deemed something of a mismatch in many quarters, last year’s Sky Bet Supreme winner already being compared to the great Champion Hurdle winners of yesteryear, but underestimating the Willie Mullins-trained State Man would be dangerous and – while stopping short of feeling compelled to have a bet – I’d have the big two in the Tuesday feature a touch closer in the market than the 4/11 and 100/30 available with most firms.
There are better betting races elsewhere on the card, although they don’t include the Sporting Life Arkle in which El Fabiolo looks the right favourite in light of his brilliant Irish Arkle effort, on top of Jonbon’s messy Warwick success in the Kingmaker.
I’m not in any way convinced the return to Cheltenham is suddenly going to see Dysart Dynamo in a much better light, but he’s hardly one to be laying either so it’s another big race I’m happy to sit out and watch from the sidelines as I don’t think Saint Roi will jump well enough to be a major player from off the pace.
Fire could blow hot for Olly Murphy
The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a different matter and I’d argue if you’re not having a good look at opposing a favourite who was last of five on his most recent start then you’re doing yourself a disservice as a punter.
Facile Vega looked quite a long price to even make the Festival in the immediate aftermath of his February flop at Leopardstown, and I won’t be won over by positive vibes emerging from the yard in recent days.
That’s not to say he can’t win – of course he can. Facile Vega has the strongest form in the book and he was brilliant in the Champion Bumper here 12 months ago so the track evidently holds no fears. It will be interesting to see how he’s ridden but Paul Townend may look to sit further back on this occasion and that could complicate matters.
There are some interesting alternatives at bigger prices, not least Facile Vega’s stablemates Il Etait Temps and the lightly-raced Diverge. Barry Connell’s Marine Nationale is bit of a stunner and will no doubt win a few over in the parade ring, but the same can also be said for long-range fancy CHASING FIRE and there’s no way I’m deserting him now.
I have him down as the best jumper in the field bar none, and although he’s officially one of the lowest rated on account of having not been tested at Graded level to this point, his super-slick manner of getting from one side of an obstacle to the other will stand him in good stead on this steep rise in class.
Granted, he jumped a little to the right at the final flight on his latest outing at Sandown and his three starts over hurdles so far having all come on right-handed tracks, but I don’t see the course being a major problem for him (he won a bumper going left-handed for what that’s worth).
Whether he’s quite mature enough will all be revealed on the day but I’m confident he’ll be quick enough to keep tabs on the pick of the Irish as he’s got a classy Flat pedigree and evidently has loads of natural pace.
He shapes like he’ll relish a strongly-run race and, as long as the ground isn’t completely bottomless which seems highly unlikely, I reckon he’ll give them all something to worry about with his accurate and efficient jumping technique.
The one with a touch of class in Ultima
THE BIG BREAKAWAY probably isn’t the most reliable jumper in the Ultima Handicap Chase but he’s never been too far off Graded class at his very best and might be able to finally hammer that point home under a big weight in a competitive race such as this.
He’s evidently had physical problems since last tasting success in a course and distance novice event way back in November 2020, but he’s not been over-raced during that time and Joe Tizzard, who recently confirmed that an issue with his shins was holding the giant chestnut back in the past, looks to have finally got to the bottom of those ailments.
The Big Breakaway, fourth to Envoi Allen here in the Ballymore three years ago, has never run better than when second in the Coral Welsh Grand National over Christmas and that came on the back of a head second to Fontaine Collonges at Haydock in November, the front two pulling 11 lengths clear of subsequent winner Rapper on that occasion.
The handicapper has kept nudging him up but I’m convinced a revised mark of 151 is not beyond the eight-year-old, whose proven stamina will be a serious asset in the conditions on Tuesday.
Seemingly quietly fancied for the Randox Grand National next month, he’s less likely to get his ground at Aintree and there’s plenty to like about the freshness angle with him here too, his lifetime form after a break of 75 days or more out of action reading 1413F32.
He rates a good each-way bet with so many extra places on offer.
Tough to take on Mares' Hurdle principals
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle is quite tempting with 10 runners and the odd firm going four places but it just looks an extremely tough race and for all that Honeysuckle has been the best mare around for years now, I’m not sure that’s going to be the case anymore. Stablemates Marie’s Rock and Epatante round out a quality trio at the top of the market.
Wide-margin Naas winner Echoes In Rain was a bit unlucky (hampered two out) to be only fifth 12 months ago and she could bridge the gap on Marie’s Rock, but the bottom line is I found it hard to oppose Nicky Henderson’s ace who is right at the peak of her powers as an eight-year-old.
Le Dun lurking under low weight in Boodles
The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle lends itself to a win-only dart as we’ve had six winners at 25/1 or bigger over the past decade and it can’t be an easy one for those on the other side of the fence to price up.
ROMANCERO LE DUN is among the outsiders of the lot and could be worth a chance.
Considered a three-mile chaser in the making by trainer Jane Williams, I’d love to see him sent out in front where he can hopefully put plenty of them under pressure with his jumping and you’d imagine every drop of rain that falls would play to his strengths as connections will be desperate to turn this into a proper test at the trip.
Having said that, Romancero Le Dun was sharp enough to beat 80-rated Flat recruit Admiralty House when defying a penalty at Ludlow to make it 2-3 over hurdles (unseated David Noonan at the first on debut at Warwick).
Ludlow (sharp, right-handed) didn’t look his bag at all, having won well at the more galloping Exeter prior to that, and it’s not hard to see Cheltenham really suiting him.
Romancero Le Dun might not be anywhere near quick enough but he’s sneaking in here under a low weight with an eminently workable initial handicap mark of 119, and I can’t let one with his sort of profile go unbacked at such long odds in a wide-open race.
Preview posted at 1600 GMT on 13/03/23
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