Cheltenham Festival clash: Champ Kiely versus Hermes Allen in Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
By Matt Brocklebank
15:22 · MON February 06, 2023
Our expert weighs up the potential battle between recent Grade 1 winners Hermes Allen and Champ Kiely in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.
It's that point in the season when the pre-Cheltenham pecking order becomes far more well established among the novice hurdlers and within the space of just eight days we've seen a whole lot of life injected into the market for the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, the Grade 1 over two and a half miles on the Wednesday of the Festival.
On the final day of 2022, Hermes Allen was cut to 4/1 from 9/1 (later clipped another point) after barely breaking sweat en route to winning the Challow at Newbury, while on Sunday Champ Kiely was an even more significant shortener after he was slashed to 7/1 from around 16/1 in the wake of his all-the-way success in the Lawlor's Of Naas.
Stepped back up in trip after a disappointing odds-on defeat when too keen for his own good in the Royal Bond over the minimum trip, Champ Kiely was given an astute ride out in front by Danny Mullins, tactics the same jockey has executed plenty of times in nice races over the years, including on the very same horse when skipping clear of Brazil and five others in a Grade 3 at Tipperary in early-October.
Paul Townend attempting to hold him up early on in the Royal Bond clearly back-fired but he was still beaten less than five lengths on that occasion and, after reverting to front-running at Naas, the horse duly settled much better and turned the tables on Gordon Elliott's Irish Point, who had finished a couple of places ahead of him in second at Fairyhouse.
One thing that detracted from Sunday's race quite considerably was that the two hurdles in the home straight had to be omitted due to the low sun, leaving it well short of the jumping test it had promised to be.
Champ Kiely clearly had a favourable shot at things with that factor in mind too, able to pick his way around the dolled-off obstacles without the added issue of other horses around him, but I'd still be willing to take a positive view of the form in general.
And - regardless of price for the time being - that's just about the bottom line when it comes to trying to split Hermes Allen and Champ Kiely for a race like the Ballymore.
Year on year we get towards the crux of the campaign and are tasked with weighing up Irish Grade 1 novice form with that in Britain, and for me there is no contest.
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Hermes Allen is rated 144p with Timeform and Champ Kiely is likely to be pushing 150, having gone into the Lawlor's on 142p. Hermes Allen has beaten a 125-rated mare who won a minor race at Hexham on her previous start, while Champ Kiely has beaten a Grade 1-placed improver and wide-margin (albeit flattered) Grade 3 winner back in third.
The strength in depth in Ireland in this division in particular has gone through the roof in recent years, the last five Ballymores all heading that way (eight of the last 10), and you'd be hard pressed to suggest Hermes Allen will blow them all away on March 15.
Champ Kiely - as well as the likes of Irish Point, Good Land and possibly Impaire Et Passe - will probably get another chance to enhance his claims further in the top-class 2m6f novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival next month, with Hermes Allen already bound "straight for Cheltenham".
Throw those revised odds back into the mix and the Nicholls horse currently makes next to no appeal.
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