Matt Brocklebank had an 18/1 winner at Lingfield last Saturday - don't miss his value selections for Doncaster and Cheltenham this weekend.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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- Following all Matt’s selections to recommended odds/stakes since taking over the column in June 2020 would have produced over 140pts in profit.
Value Bet tips: Saturday, January 27
1pt e.w. Prairie Wolf in 12.40 Cheltenham at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4 20/1 General)
1pt win Hitman in 1.15 Cheltenham at 8/1 (888Sport, 15/2 General)*
1pt win The Newest One in 2.40 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Sail Away in 3.15 Doncaster at 14/1 (General)
Irish invasion yet to come...
It typically pays to err on the side of caution when it comes to gleaning significant Cheltenham Festival pointers on Trials Day, and this year looks no different.
Yes, there have been plenty of Trials Day winners down the years who followed up at the big show six weeks later, and a race like the opening JCB Triumph Trial looks sure to have a massive bearing on the real thing, but keep this in mind when the revised Festival quotes come flooding in through Saturday afternoon - there are only five Irish horses declared at this meeting, and they include odds-on shot Lossiemouth in the Unibet Hurdle.
On top of that, you'd be mad to completely rule her Willie Mullins stable companion Capodanno out of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase, and then we’ve got the wily Emmet’s Noble Yeats under Harry Cobden in the McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle, plus a couple of Gavin Cromwell runners elsewhere on the card. Cromwell has a 25% strike-rate (11-44) at the track over the past five season, don’t forget.
If this select handful of Irish raiders clear off with two or three of the eight races this weekend, then it goes without saying that it won’t be looking great for the Brits come mid-March.
Anyway, enough doom-mongering from me and onto the more positive factors including the decent weather forecast and prospect of good to soft ground, which is always a relief as we’re hopefully going to avoid the swathe of non-runners that can occasionally blight this day’s racing.
Cheltenham's two big betting races contain just the one Irish horse between them and seeing as the Cromwell-trained Railway Hurricane is among the complete outsiders in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, this often-informative contest seems a safe place to kick-off.
Paul Nicholls has unquestionably found the key to Ginny’s Destiny – and not been massively complimentary towards the horse’s former trainer Tom Lacey in the process by all accounts – but I’m happy to oppose him off 6lb higher than when winning here on testing ground at the last meeting. Both of his Cheltenham victories this term have now come on soft and he was obviously fortunate to beat subsequent Grade 2 winner Grey Dawning after that one’s late mistake last month.
Tightenourbelts has to be of interest back in a handicap after bumping into the phenomenon that is Il Est Francais in the Grade 1 at Kempton, but he is a full stone higher than for his Ludlow win at the start of the year, and it’s not like he’s been missed in the market here either.
I wouldn’t want to have been laying Sue Smith’s horses at Cheltenham in recent seasons – she’s 3-9 on the chase course here (+35.00 level stakes profit) during the past five years – and it’s quite interesting to see Charlie Deutsch having his first ride for the stable on lightly-weighted PRAIRIE WOLF.
This horse won just once from 11 starts over hurdles but it’s not unusual for something extra to click into place when Smith sends them novice chasing, and that definitely looked to be the case with Prairie Wolf at Doncaster last month.
Building on an encouraging debut over fences at Market Rasen in November, the seven-year-old could be called the winner a long way out on Town Moor and his jumping late on was deadly accurate.
He officially ended up winning by just a length but that’s only due to being eased right down close home and it would have been more like six or eight had he been kept up to his work, on which basis a subsequent 6lb rise looks more than fair, especially as the third Imac Wood won well off the same mark at Hereford last Monday.
At home on a sound surface, having won on good ground over hurdles last February, and clearly open to lots more improvement, he’s sneaking into this at the right end of the handicap and should appreciate the true end-to-end gallop in a race of this nature. I like him a lot and will back him accordingly each-way.
Point and shoot with fresh Nicholls runner
The Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase is – for the 10th year in succession now – Irish raider-free and I can happily boil this down to just a couple on the prevailing ground.
Had the mud been flying, then Bill Baxter, Easy As That and Grandeur D’Ame would have been high up on the shortlist, but as it stands they’re not really in my thinking at all, and this could be between Victtorino and HITMAN.
Venetia Williams' horse is a progressive six-year-old and, after back-to-back three-mile wins at Ascot during November and December this season, I’m pretty sure he’ll be up to defying his revised mark of 146 at some stage. In fact, a total rise of 8lb for those victories in traditionally warm races looks generous on the face of it, and he probably wasn’t seen to best effect last time after it turned into a bit of a crawl-and-sprint scenario.
Victtorino is down in trip and very much respected but Hitman only has to give him 5lb if you factor in Freddie Gingell’s claim and he’s without doubt the horse to beat based on his excellent run when third in the Ryanair Chase last spring. He only missed out on the runner-up spot behind Envoi Allen that day due to Shishkin’s late burst in the closing stages, and I can excuse his subsequent effort when running flat in the Melling at Aintree.
The comeback effort in the Old Roan Chase, a race in which he was beaten a head off a mark of 159 first time out last season, is less forgivable but it obviously wasn’t his true running and he’s since undergone another breathing operation which may offer some sort of back-fitting explanation.
His record first up after wind surgery reads a win and two seconds, so that bodes very well, and Nicholls is absolutely mustard with these fresh-as-paint handicap chasers who have been lined up for a target.
Eased a couple of pounds to 156 following the most recent Aintree flop, he’s on a very fair mark again even without the claiming rider and while he handles most conditions, a sound surface helps him travel better which makes sense given the physical issues he must have had.
Hitman is entered for the Ryanair again in March so must have been showing the right signs again in his homework and he looks well worth backing at current odds, or anything north of 6/1.
One of two on Town Moor card
Up at Doncaster, THE NEWEST ONE looks a bet in the Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle.
No matter the state of the ground, this race always becomes an extraordinary slog as they tend to get racing a hell of a long way from home and experience can count for plenty, but even on official ratings The Newest One is right up there with the pick of these rivals so I'm a little surprised by his price.
The 2020 winner of this race, Ramses De Teillee, had run a bunch of times over fences and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge looks a bit of a failed chaser in truth having won just once from 10 runs over the larger obstacles.
He ended last season running well in defeat back over timber and has kicked on again this term, following home Buddy One at Cheltenham first time back before winning a novice event by 19 lengths at Chepstow in early-December.
He wasn’t quite up to that level against some progressive handicappers back at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but still left the impression he had more to offer as a hurdler and I like this as a target as he almost made all here in a three-mile handicap hurdle last March.
The ground was riding on top that day too so while this season’s form is all with cut, he’s clearly versatile and Finn Lambert – who won on him two starts ago – is back in the saddle. I’d imagine his instructions will be to sit handily and try help turn it into a proper test of stamina, in which case a few of his rivals could start to crack.
Set sail again with Saturday Skelton
SAIL AWAY looks to represent a spot of value in the SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase.
Like stablemate Jay Jay Reilly who won the Lanzarote at a huge price, Dan Skelton’s representative looks a bit of a good ground specialist and I won’t be letting this one go unbacked having been left kicking myself at Kempton the other week.
It’s fair to say Sail Away hasn’t stood much racing but when he’s on song he’s looked quite smart and that’s usually been in the latter stages of the season once the sun’s come out.
Perhaps it won’t be April and May until he hits top form again this year, but I’m willing to overlook his two runs in December, especially the last one when eight of the fences had to be omitted, and he’s crept down to a mark just 6lb higher than when a dominant winner of a novices’ handicap at Ayr in the spring.
The 11-length second that day, Forward Plan, won a nice pot here at Doncaster last month off the same mark while the third, City Chief, has been mixing in good company at Cheltenham and Warwick so there’s no doubting Sail Away’s talent and it’s hoped the better ground, genuine jumping test and the fact Skelton’s horses are going better now than pre-Christmas anyway, will help get him back in the groove under 3lb claimer Tristan Durrell.
The current odds look perfectly reasonable in a typically open edition.
Published at 1600 GMT on 26/01/24
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