The second leg of the autumn double comes under the spotlight and our man has a couple of big-priced recommendations for the Cesarewitch.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season 2022
1pt win Frankenstella in Cesarewitch Handicap at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Inchicore in Cesarewitch Handicap at 25/1 (General)
Willie Mullins has a lot of juggling to do when it comes to his Cesarewitch Handicap team, next Sunday’s Irish version a major stumbling block when it comes to have an antepost bet on anything from Closutton for Newmarket.
Mullins has a dozen still entered but most also have the Curragh option beforehand, including Galway Festival winner Echoes In Rain, who is among the market leaders for both events.
She’ll be a massive player if coming to the UK, with Mullins having trained three of the past four winners, but there are other serious Irish horses to consider too, not least the Emmet Mullins-trained Cape Gentleman (14/1), who one would assume will be aimed at this race given his only other entry at the time of writing is in Wednesday’s Kerry National Handicap Chase at Listowel.
It’s a waiting game with him, too, but the bottom line is that the Cesarewitch could cut up massively over the coming days and, as a consequence, there are two home-trained runners who are worth getting on side early ahead of the two-and-a-quarter-mile feature on October 8.
The first is Alan King’s mare INCHICORE, who was pushed out to 25/1 from 20s by Paddy Power and Betfair following her comeback run at Doncaster’s St Leger Festival, which looks generous.
Granted, in finishing third to Going Gone in the Mallard (replay below) she wasn’t quite at the same level as when winning at Goodwood in May or when beaten two lengths into fourth over an inadequate trip (1m4f) at Haydock in July, but the run was presumably needed after a 71-day break.
The summer recess was almost inevitable really given this horse’s preference for cut in the ground and King is on record stating “there could be a really big handicap in her on soft ground.”
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Conditions haven’t been ideal for a while then, but Inchicore was still sent off the 11/4 favourite when the ground looked to have come in her favour on Town Moor, which strongly suggests they think she remains on a workable mark (left alone on 97). She stayed on well to be third, doing best of those who were held up, and ultimately had to mount her challenge more towards the middle of the track and away from the front two who were on the far rail.
It was a very creditable display and her form with subsequent York winner Ahorsewithnoname from Newbury back in the spring reads particularly well with this race in mind as Nicky Henderson’s horse – to whom Inchicore was trying to give 12lb in weight – is no bigger than 8/1 for the Cesarewitch, while Inchicore’s stamina looks more assured anyway, particularly if it comes up testing.
The other one to have on side at this stage is FRANKENSTELLA for trainer John Quinn, who is having a remarkable season thanks to the sprinting exploits of Highfield Princess.
This mare is obviously at the other end of the spectrum in terms of distance, but the five-year-old daughter of Frankel still has very few miles on the clock and, much like Inchicore, she’s definitely been kept fresh for an autumn campaign.
She peaked as a three-year-old with a York win in September 2020 and there was loads to like about her one-length defeat of Saturday’s Cesarewitch Trial winner and all-round solid yardstick Rajinsky in bad ground at Haydock last May.
She’s been restricted to just the two outings so far this year but built on her York third (behind Ahorsewithnoname) to post a career-best effort in second to Alfred Boucher over the extended two miles at York’s Ebor Festival.
The winner went on to just miss out in the big one that Saturday, so the form looks classy and Frankenstella has only gone up 2lb. That looks a crucial rise as it could see her just sneak in at the bottom of the Cesarewitch and if that’s the case – and some substantial rain does come in time – then her current odds (also 25s) will look like excellent business.
Published at 1500 BST on 18/09/22
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