Our Ben Linfoot answers the key questions ahead of Irish Derby weekend at the Curragh where Lambourn and Kalpana could star.
Can the Betfred Derby form be turned on its head at the Curragh?
Lambourn is a strong favourite for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at the Curragh but those he beat at Epsom are coming back for more with Lazy Griff, Tennessee Stud and Pride Of Arras all possibles to line up against him again on Sunday.
Aidan O’Brien’s son of Australia is odds-on across the board to double up and become the 20th horse to win both races and there’s little doubt the stiff 1m4f at the Curragh should play to his strengths.
At Chester he showcased himself as a strong stayer at a mile and a half in the Chester Vase and, while he got the run of the race at Epsom under a superbly-judged front-running ride from Wayne Lordan, his dominance was there for all to see.
Tennessee Stud is the biggest danger to him from Epsom, Joseph O’Brien’s horse coming from the rear to finish well in the straight. He was a length behind the runner-up, Lazy Griff, who received a much more prominent ride, at the line.
The positions between the second and third could well be reversed under different circumstances on Sunday, while Lazy Griff might not run unless there is sufficient juice in the ground in any case, with the weather forecast largely dry after Wednesday.
Pride Of Arras has the most to do and Ralph Beckett will be hoping the more conventional track sees a stark improvement from the son of New Bay, but the evidence that it was an unusually weak and unreliable Dante Stakes is there before us until proven otherwise.
Indeed, you can’t argue with the odds-on quotes about Lambourn and the market has very much latched onto Tennessee Stud as the main danger, but I’d expect the Epsom winner to confirm the Derby form this weekend.
Any other dangers he should look out for?
Only Green Impact. The rest of the field looks likely to be made up of inferior stablemates but Jessica Harrington’s son of Wootton Bassett is a very interesting rival stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time.
He beat Delacroix a couple of times as a two-year-old and he wasn’t beaten too far in the 2000 Guineas despite being outpaced and getting unbalanced a little in the dip.
Last time, at Leopardstown, he beat a field of solid Listed horses over nine furlongs after making all and that looked a nice bridge to a first crack at a mile and a half.
There’s hope he will stay this far in his pedigree, as he’s out of a Galileo mare who stayed 1m5f and if he improves for the distance he could give Lambourn a real race, for all that Aidan O’Brien’s horse has the form edge at this stage.
How’s the Group 1 Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes shaping up?
Really nicely. Amazing to think Aidan O’Brien has won this race just once in the last eight years, with 2/5 chance Magical in 2020, but he could enhance that recent record and win his sixth renewal overall with Whirl.
The Oaks second proved she stayed a mile and a half with a really good run at Epsom, but judging by both that performance and her Musidora romp at York it could well be that 10 furlongs will be her optimum distance.
She gets 12lb from the older fillies on the weight-for-age and could be joined in the race by fellow three-year-old and stablemate Bedtime Story, who bounced right back to form with a career-best second in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last time out.
The two to beat in the race, however, look to be the British-trained fillies Kalpana and Estrange.
David O’Meara’s Estrange looked oh so good at Haydock in the Group 3 Lester Piggott Stakes over 1m4f last time out, the striking grey more than hinting she’s top class with a dominant win on what was just her fourth career start.
She could well have the gears to cope with the drop back to 10 furlongs on Saturday and connections of Kalpana will be hoping she can strike at the highest level over this distance before she goes back out in trip for races like the King George and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
For me, Andrew Balding’s filly is the one. She looked unlucky on her seasonal reappearance behind Los Angeles in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, finding trouble in the run, and back against her own sex she could be too classy these rivals, for all that she may well prove her very best form over 1m4f later in the campaign.
Are any other British raiders set to make the trip over?
The aforementioned Kalpana, Estrange, Lazy Griff and Pride Of Arras could headline a potentially strong UK challenge and there are plenty of others worth noting amongst the entries.
On Saturday, Hilary Needler third Artista could run for Ollie Sangster in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes, while on the same afternoon Karl Burke’s Bolster may go for the Group 3 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai International Stakes, this year run in honour of the late Kevin Prendergast.
Bolster was fourth in the same race last year, behind Jan Brueghel, but he’s been a bit below his best form in two starts this campaign and might need a combination of 10 furlongs and softer ground to return to his peak level.
Stablemate Native Warrior could have a big say in the Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap over a mile on Sunday, the four-year-old slowly building back towards his best form after two runs at Doncaster and Windsor so far this term.
He could extend Wathnan’s good recent run, while Burke will be hoping the seven-furlong trip can help Toomuchforme after her struggles over six at Newmarket and Chester on her last two starts.
Charlie Johnston could load Thunder Wonder and Urban Sprawl onto the horsebox with Lazy Griff and Roger Varian’s Russet Gold can bid for Listed success in the Jebel Ali Racecourse & Stables Dash Stakes.
Perhaps it’s Ed Dunlop’s Skukuza, though, who holds the best chance from the UK team. The Blue Point colt won a mile handicap in great style here on Irish Guineas weekend and he moves up to Listed class for the Colm McLoughlin Celebration Stakes.
Is there a horse on the betting radar for the meeting?
No prices yet away from the features but I think Bolster could be up against it in the Group 3 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai International Stakes run over 10 furlongs on Saturday and Joseph O’Brien’s Trustyourinstinct could be the one here.
Like Bolster, he ran in the race last year and he was beaten a neck in second, splitting recent Epsom winners Jan Brueghel and Ecureuil Secret.
Unlike Bolster, he looks to have improved again this term and there was loads to like about his Listed win over 1m4 at this track on the Irish 2,000 Guineas card.
O’Brien could have a strong hand here with Galen, Sons And Lovers and Scorthy Champ in there as well, but Galen had a tough race in second behind Haatem in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot, Sons And Lovers was fifth in the same race and there are stamina doubts about Scorthy Champ.
With all that in mind, it could be Trustyourinstinct time.
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