Best value bets for Cheltenham: Preview & tips for Sunday November 14
Value Bet tips: Sunday, November 14
1pt win Botox Has in 2.55 Cheltenham at 20/1 (bet365)
Rouge Vif could spring small surprise in Shloer
The third and final day of Cheltenham’s November Meeting is clearly lacking when it comes to number of runners and attractive betting opportunities but it looks potentially just as informative as days one and two with some really promising novices on show and a small but select field lining up for the Grade Two feature – the Shloer Chase.
Queen Mother Champion Chase one-two Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra are joined by Paul Nicholls’ vastly experienced Politologue and his new stablemate Rouge Vif in what promises to be a fascinating little race.
Nube Negra probably has more gears than Henry De Bromhead’s mare, who held on grimly at the Festival in March, and he could be better suited by the underfoot conditions but I’d be very wary of Rouge Vif, who has had a breathing operating since ending last season with a bit of a whimper.
He’s much better than he was showing last term and will definitely be ready for the day as his opportunities could be limited over the winter when the ground turns against him.
Moore has a likely type for Greatwood glory
I can just about resist a small play on the outsider of the Shloer party, especially with a race like the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle to get stuck into a little later on the card.
The Shunter made them all look silly when dotting up 12 months ago and it’s no surprise to see very respectable Irish representation again through Jesse Evans, Tudor City, Bua Boy and Advanced Virgo.
Bua Boy, trained and ridden by Denis Hogan, arguably offers the best value based on his strong Listowel form when last seen in September (Advanced Virgo behind and better off at the weights here) but the BHA assessor hasn’t taken too many chances with a mark of 136 and it’s highly unlikely he’s got as much in hand as The Shunter did last year.
I think the prize could stay at home this time around.
Dan Skelton’s returning West Cork and the Nicky Henderson-trained novice No Ordinary Joe are the obvious ones who have found their way to the top of the betting having been available at much bigger prices in the antepost market, but BOTOX HAS shouldn’t be underestimated for trainer Gary Moore, who won this with Numide in 2008.
Moore also landed the Paddy Power Gold Cup couple of years ago with Baron Alco for the same owner as Botox Has, and this horse’s Cheltenham record is pretty eyecatching with form figures of 211PU. The one blob came in the Coral Cup at the Festival this March, when sent off a well-backed 17/2, but clearly wasn’t able to reproduce his best on the day.
Prior to that he’d looked on a realistic mark when sixth behind Creigneiche at Ascot when running from 144 and the handicapper has been quite quick in dropping him to 140, just 2lb higher than his official rating when winning by four lengths over this course and distance last October.
That came in a conditions race so it’s not like he was defying a mark of 138 as such, but he was pretty impressive on good ground and beat the now 138-rated The Pink’n by four lengths (giving him 4lb), with the now 164-rated chaser Allmankind (who was conceding Botox Has 4lb) a further three and a half lengths away in third.
It’s a strong piece of form and he was a staying-on second to Allmankind here in their juvenile days too so is hardly a flash in the pan, and Moore has booked 5lb claimer Niall Houlihan, fresh off the back of his Cheltenham breakthrough on the yard's Editeur Du Gite on Friday, to ease the burden further. He should get a strong pace to chase with Camprond and Galice Macalo likely to be kept company by Chris Gordon's Mount Windsor.
The one small issue is that this seemingly comes as a bit of an afterthought following a fall at Plumpton on his chasing debut, but horses switching discipline are often overlooked in these races and it’s hoped last month’s heavy tumble hasn’t dented his confidence as the Moore yard remains in great form generally and Botox Has has loads in his favour on paper.
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Published at 1530 GMT on 13/11/21
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