Our form expert has two bets for Boxing Day's ITV racing action at Kempton Park and Wetherby.
The Verdict: Friday December 26
1pt e.w Epic West in 12:45 Kempton at 12/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
2pts win Knappers Hill in 13:35 Wetherby at 5/1 (General)
Market right to home in on Jango
It’s unusual for Willie Mullins to bring one big gun over for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, never mind two, but there’s no doubt the presence of his Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File has turned what would’ve been a good renewal into a vintage one.
And with the going Good to Soft (Good in places) the ground is what you might call typical at Kempton with the weather set fair, meaning we have a perfect storm of quality field and quick conditions which could be timely considering the politics surrounding the future of Kempton Park.
Either way, it’s good to see two of the best of the Irish staying chasing clan come and have a go, as they’ve been winning it with their B-team in recent years.
That suggests all Fact To File or Gaelic Warrior have to do is turn up to claim the trophy, but a few factors make things more complicated than that.
For starters the Mullins stable form is a bit iffy, three winners at 9% in the last fortnight, while Gaelic Warrior might want softer ground and Fact To File might be better over two or three furlongs shorter. Both were beaten at Christmas in Ireland last year.
Class could see either of them through, but they did have hard races in the John Durkan so I’m not surprised to see Jango Baie disputing favouritism with the Mullins pair. Given this is Nicky Henderson ground and after he had a perfect prep at Ascot, he is my idea of the winner, but I want a bit more bang for my buck than 11/4 in the circumstances.
I’ll happily sit the day’s feature out and enjoy it, particularly with lots of other races to have a go at.
The Verdict: No bet in the King George
Epic dice throw in Kempton opener
Things could start very nicely for Henderson with Noble Park in the opening Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over the extended 2m4f after the start he has made to his chasing career.
Two from two since going chasing, the 26-length runner-up to him at Lingfield, Vanderpoel, has since gone in at Ascot, so his chance is there for all to see and an 11lb hike in the weights might not stop him.
On the other hand, it might, and I think one of his main threats comes from the Jamie Snowden stable in the form of EPIC WEST who is making his debut over fences.
The Snowden yard have had an exceptional start to the season and they still remain in great form, while these novice handicap chases are always a rich source of winners for him.
Indeed, backing all of Snowden's chasing debutants in novice handicap chases is a profitable system, +£11.77 to £1 at Betfair SP, his overall record with such horses 15 wins from 80 at 18.75%.
Meanwhile, this horse showed real promise as a novice hurdler, his two wins at Carlisle and Plumpton coming on ground Timeform recorded as Good to Soft, so he should be right at home on the conditions.
Those victories were over two miles, so he’s clearly got gears for a three-mile point-to-point winner, but it looks significant he goes straight in at 2m4f and a bit for his handicap chase debut.
His half-brother Complete Unknown won a handicap chase around this course and distance for Paul Nicholls by 16 lengths off a mark of 142, so this sort of a test might just be in his genes and at double-figure prices he’s worth a bet despite never having jumped a fence in public.
The Verdict: Back EPIC WEST in the 12:45 Kempton
Knap hand for Nicholls at Wetherby
Talking of Nicholls he looks to have spotted an excellent opportunity for his KNAPPERS HILL in the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby where hot favourite Konfusion has a bit to prove up 10lb in the weights.
Nicholls wouldn’t be a regular at Wetherby’s Christmas meeting given he has usually got bigger fish to fry at Kempton, but he has had six winners from 15 runners (40%) over this two-day meeting at the Yorkshire track down the years so it’s worth noting when he takes one north at this time of year.
One of those winners was Nozic in this race back in 2008, when ridden by a certain Harry Skelton claiming 5lb, and interestingly that horse was having his second run back after a mega absence of 603 days.
Knappers Hill returned from 742 days off the track last time in a red-hot Graduation Chase at Haydock won by King George hopeful The Jukebox Man, with Grand National favourite and last weekend’s Ascot winner Iroko in second.
It proved to be a tough assignment for Knappers Hill and he drifted in the betting, but he shaped well for an awful long way and was only beaten eight lengths despite getting tired in the closing stages.
To my eyes it looked like he retains all of his old ability (three times a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and fences) and taking in a small-field handicap like this over a flat and left-handed three miles off a mark of 145 looks the perfect stage for him to go and prove it.
The Verdict: Back KNAPPERS HILL in the 13:35 Wetherby
Preview posted at 11:45 GMT on 24/12/25
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