Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Betfred Derby day at Epsom June 3
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has five tips for Derby day including four at Epsom, where a son of Frankel is fancied, and one at Doncaster.
The Verdict tips: Saturday, June 3
1pt win Marie’s Diamond in 12.50 Epsom at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Military Order in 1.30 Epsom at 9/2 (General)
1pt win Miss Brazen in 2.45 Epsom at 12/1 (bet365, 11/1 General)
1pt win Mokaatil in 3.20 Epsom at 12/1 (bet365, 11/1 General)
1pt win Struth in 4.00 Doncaster at 13/2 (Hills)
Military coup in the Derby
A fascinating Betfred Derby awaits us on Saturday afternoon, or just after lunchtime really, as a 1.30pm kick-off due to the FA Cup Final has been scheduled at Epsom. Let’s hope that’s the only disruption to the great race.
Favourite Auguste Rodin looks very short on the back of his 2000 Guineas flop and last year’s Vertem Futurity win at Doncaster, form that hasn’t worked out at all, while connections’ confidence in him might not be as strong as it seems after the late switcheroo regarding San Antonio.
He’s opposable and so is midweek plunge Arrest, who won in a bog at Chester, Frankie Dettori’s reservations about fast ground at Epsom straight after the Chester Vase not stopping his army of supporters from backing his final Derby ride.
It’s a different looking Derby with only one son of Galileo in the field – Ralph Beckett’s inexperienced Artistic Star who has attracted support at big prices – but we’ve been witnessing the passing of the baton for a few years now with Frankel the apparent heir as far as Derby domination is concerned.
He has a chance with Arrest, but he has a better one with MILITARY ORDER, the full-brother to Frankel’s previous Derby winner, Adayar, and he’s very reasonably priced at 9/2.
His Lingfield win looks the best of the trials to my eye, the way he nipped around the inside at that track boding well for the test at Epsom and he saw off a nice sort in Waipiro, doing his best work at the finish looking like he had plenty left in the tank.
He’ll appreciate the test of stamina and the faster ground is expected to be no problem, judging by both his polytrack win and Adayar’s ability on quick conditions.
Prior to Lingfield, his Newbury novice victory has plenty of substance to it, too, as he looked to beat two smart colts in Exoplanet and Chesspiece when his stamina came to the fore, so he’s got a very solid overall profile comparative to this field.
Charlie Appleby has won two of the last five renewals and he could’ve aimed a handful of colts at this race, while his slight dip in form relative to his always-excellent strike-rate is nothing more than a minor concern.
Drawn well in nine, Military Order is taken to come of age under William Buick on the biggest stage of all.
The Verdict: Back MILITARY ORDER in the Derby
Diamond bet in the Diomed
Even earlier than the Derby is the Group 3 Betfred Diomed Stakes and this could throw up a funny result in a small field where several have to prove themselves on faster ground.
MARIE’S DIAMOND looks the interesting one at a big price as he’s well proven on faster conditions and he could easily get the run of the race out in front under Hollie Doyle.
He didn’t look to particularly enjoy his visit to Bahrain but was back to form at York last time out when doing much the best of those up with the pace, beaten just a head in a tight finish.
That looked a very good handicap and I don’t think Marie’s Diamond has anywhere near as much to find as the official ratings suggest, especially in a race where track position could be as important a factor as ability.
He has unsurprisingly been backed in from 25s on Friday, but the 16/1 available remains on the big side.
The Verdict: Back MARIE’S DIAMOND in the Diomed Stakes
Dash in for Epsom specialist
After the two ITV1 races the handicaps take centre stage and the Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap is as enticing as ever with the maximum field of 20 lining up.
It would be no surprise to see Recon Mission go well from stall one but with a furious pace guaranteed it’s another Epsom specialist I like in MOKAATIL.
The winner of this race two years ago off a mark of 82, he also scored over the course and distance on faster ground from the same mark last spring before finishing fourth in the Dash from a perch of 87.
A winner at Sandown last August off 85, he’s back to that mark here and has had a very different preparation after just one previous run this season, but he should be primed for this with the cheekpieces back on.
Irish apprentice Sean D Bowen takes the ride and Mokaatil has a great record under 7lb claimers, winning for Angus Villiers, Harry Davies and Connor Planas under the same concession.
That’s largely down to because he’s a straightforward ride granted a fast pace and he’ll certainly get that here, so he’s a huge player if he gets the breaks again.
The Verdict: Back MOKAATIL in the Dash
Taking the Mick in the 3yo Dash
The Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap looks a nice addition to the meeting and with a smaller field of 14 for this one it has a slightly different feel to it especially with the early pace drawn low.
That should allow Tom Marquand to pick a passage through on MISS BRAZEN from stall three and I can’t resist her at double-figure prices for this race given the way she travelled at York last time in a race where several of her rivals reoppose (including favourite JM Jungle).
Sent off at 25/1 on the Knavesmire, she traded at 2.52 in-running on Betfair which tells you all you need to know, so it’s no wonder Mick & David Easterby have looked for one of the few sprint tracks even quicker than York.
Easterby has a really good record in 3YO-only five-furlong handicaps (29/174 at 16.67% since 1997) and it would be no surprise if this daughter of Brazen Beau is last off the bridle again here, while she has won at quirky tracks in the north like Thirsk and Beverley and she likes quick ground, too.
I don’t think the handicapper has got hold of her yet granted the right circumstances and everything might just drop kindly for her in this race.
The Verdict: Back MISS BRAZEN in the 3yo Dash
Struth mate, don’t miss Donny dazzler
Finally, James Doyle isn’t at Epsom for Derby day but up at Doncaster where he rides STRUTH for Charlie Johnston in the Chris Shaw’s 60th Birthday CMT Ltd Handicap over the extended 1m6f.
The Johnston yard have targeted some of their most progressive stayers in this race the last few years, namely Lynwood Gold (3rd) in 2018, Themaxwecan (2nd) in 2019, Dancing King (1st) in 2021 and Achnamara (2nd) last year.
Three run from Kingsley Park this year but Struth looks the one on the back of his game win at Chester last time where he found plenty for pressure to win nicely.
He’s only gone up 5lb to 91 and stamina looks his strong suit, so he is expected to thrive over the extra distance before going onto better things later in the campaign.
The Verdict: Back STRUTH in the 4.00 Doncaster
Preview posted at 1615 BST on 02/06/23
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