Ayr tips: Best value bets for Ayr Gold Cup day Saturday September 23

• The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced 144pts profit, while he's more than 52pts up for the year.
• Value Bet tips and guide prices are now available to qualified, logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, from 3pm before the full column appears on the main Sporing Life website and App at 4pm.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 23

1pt e.w. Bernardo O’Reilly in 2.25 Ayr at 16/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Fast And Loose in 2.25 Ayr at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Ramazan in 3.35 Ayr at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Already advised

• 1pt win Orazio in 3.35 Ayr at 12/1
• 1pt win Ramazan in 3.35 Ayr at 20/1

Double down on long-term fancy

I’ve been open to the idea that Orazio could be a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper ever since his Ascot win on soft ground in mid-May. Trainer Charlie Hills was making all the right noises about the son of Caravaggio - tried at Group 2 level as a juvenile before picking up an injury that forced him to miss the whole of 2022 - and while things haven’t worked out in the Wokingham or the Stewards’ Cup this term, it’s no surprise punters have latched onto him again ahead of Saturday’s Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup.

Unraceable ground (the meeting abandoned shortly after the race) was understandably put forward as the excuse for his Goodwood flop, having shown up fairly well on a relatively lively surface at Royal Ascot in June, and he might just have his ‘Goldilocks going’ (good to soft at the time of writing) this weekend.

Orazio's pedigree suggests he’ll stay seven furlongs in time, despite having yet to be tried over that far, though he should be ideally suited to Ayr's stiff six providing he gets something to aim at towards the stands’ side rail (drawn 23 of 25).

If the middle-to-far side is where the thick of the action ultimately unfolds - and there does appear to be a concentrated bunch of pace horses housed in stalls five to nine - things could get tricky for Jim Crowley, who isn’t exactly riding with heaps of confidence since coming back from his lengthy suspension anyway.

With Significantly - another possible pace angle if reverting to his usual tactics - breaking from stall 14, I’m a little lukewarm on Orazio at the overnight prices and reckon fellow long-range fancy RAMAZAN (drawn in 12) is the one to be backing now we have extra places to play with.

He's one of just two three-year-olds in the line-up but he's got a dozen races under his belt now so looks hardy enough for an Ayr Gold Cup and he’s definitely still on an upward curve.

Encouragingly, he held his form deep into last season when beaten just a length in a hot edition of the Goffs Million at the Curragh on this corresponding weekend last year, and I loved the way he turned away his rivals when back to winning ways on Chepstow’s Racing League card last month.

Ramazan is up to a mark of 101 now but that's still perfectly manageable given he had the likes of Magical Sunset (now rated 107), New Endeavour (112) and Killybegs Warrior (104) behind him in the aforementioned race at the Curragh, and he won cosily enough from a mark 98 last time out.

The son of Kodiac is expected to cope well with a drop back from seven furlongs with some ease underfoot, and no doubt trainer Richard Fahey has been eyeing this meeting ever since Ramazan was narrowly denied in a nursery here when sent off 9/4 favourite last September, before his excellent Irish effort the following weekend.

WATCH: Click here for the full Ayr Gold Cup preview

O'Reilly ready to go in again

The Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap is wonderfully wide-open and you’ve got to respect the claims of Woven, BERNARDO O'REILLY, Jump The Gun and Aplomb, who all finished in the first six last year.

Jump The Gun has been well found in the market after last week’s Doncaster second, while Aplomb has been eyecatching - to say the least - in his two starts since resuming from a summer break and has clearly slipped to a dangerous mark.

However, this is Aplomb’s jockey Stefano Cherchi’s first ever ride at Ayr so that's definitely at the back of my mind. Compare his course experience, or lack thereof, to that of someone like Danny Tudhope, who has ridden over 100 winners at the track, and you can see why Bernardo O'Reilly’s trainer Richard Spencer has turned to Tudhope for the first time since his third on the same horse here 12 months ago.

Bernardo O’Reilly has been a cracking servant for connections, winning his seventh race when swooping late under Hayley Turner at Doncaster in April this year. Despite running well in all four starts since that success, he’s still only a couple of pounds higher and returns to the Silver Cup off 2lb lower than when running on for a place last season.

He's obviously a bit of a hostage to fortune, and endured a nightmare trip when denied a clear run of things at Windsor last month, but they’re often spread across the track in these big-field sprints at Ayr and, having been handed stall 1, Tudhope will probably have his mind made up already that he’s going to arrive deep into the race towards the far side.

That's plausible, on paper at least, with Cairn Gorm in 2, Fast And Loose 3 and Danzan 5 looking some of the more likely to cut out the running and set things up for the closers. Bernardo O’Reilly, along with favourite Gulliver, is one of the old boys of the party as a nine-year-old now but he’s evidently still got plenty of talent and looks a shade over-priced as this meeting will have been on his agenda all year.

Quick to excuse recent Fast flop

Kevin Ryan's FAST AND LOOSE – one of the aforementioned horses expected to be ridden more prominently - is also worth backing at a big price. He missed out by a short head in the Bronze Cup last year when fitted with blinkers for the first time and it’s interesting to note the same headgear returns on Saturday after a couple of runs in cheekpieces since resuming from an 81-day break.

The first of those outings yielded a creditable third behind Tinto at Redcar and while the latest run ended in a complete blob at Thirsk, he lined up here last term just 12 days on from a similarly limp display at York.

He’s essentially a typical hit-and-miss sprint handicapper but he’d be much shorter in the market here had he not run at Thirsk and I’m willing to overlook it on price-grounds given the latest headgear switch and the fact Ryan is a past master when it comes to this meeting (won five Ayr Gold Cups and one Silver among many other races down the years).

Published at 1600 BST on 22/09/23

Click here for the full Value Bet record

Learn more about Sporting Life Plus

Combining Sporting Life's instinctive eye for profit with Timeform's unrivalled racing data and analysis, Sporting Life Plus provides you with the very best betting insight, every day. Click here for qualification criteria via the Sky Bet Club and to log in.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org