Our man casts his eye over the quality action on day one of Royal Ascot and picks out the best bets at the prices on offer.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 134pts profit, while he's over 40pts up for the year.
Value Bet tips: Tuesday, June 20
1pt e.w. Mutasaabeq in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pts win Certain Lad in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 50/1 (General)
1pt win Berkshire Rocco in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 18/1 (General)
A marathon, not a sprint
I was reminded recently of the importance of discipline in all forms of betting, and there’s no doubt it’s the one weapon in any punter’s arsenal that should be exercised as much as possible.
It’s also arguably the most difficult to execute, of course, and discipline can often be tempered given the hype and general excitement of top-quality competition around the major racing festivals, but with five days and 35 races to go at throughout the week at Royal Ascot, I’ll be doing my best to pare back if in any doubt, and remain as price-sensitive as usual.
That’s easier said that done, though I doubt any of Frankie Dettori’s rides will be featuring in this column given the almost unrivalled attention he’s going to receive from start to finish at the meeting which means so much to him.
Dettori kicks off with one of his big rides of the week in Inspiral going for the Queen Anne Stakes on her seasonal comeback; in fact, days one and two could be the Italian’s best chance of really striking fear into the bookmakers as things look a little tougher heading into Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
But as for Inspiral, she’s undoubtedly very talented and I wouldn’t be too concerned that she missed the Lockinge after coming to hand a little later than one or two others in the Gosden yard. She won the Coronation in brilliant fashion here first time up 12 months ago, and I can excuse the QEII flop when last seen as she didn’t really look on it from the moment the stalls opened.
There's gold in them thar Hills
Inspiral must be afforded massive respect but on the subject of excuses, I do think the market is out of line in behind the filly and it’s not hard to make a solid each-way case for MUTASAABEQ if you look beyond his Newbury run.
The Lockinge was a tepid effort on the face of it but it was interesting to hear his trainer Charlie Hills suggest the run probably came too soon after his fantastic Newmarket win, when conceding 3lb to Native Trail and Light Infantry and hammering them by three lengths.
That form is only fractionally shy of the performance Modern Games put up to win the Lockinge itself, and it’s worth remembering Mutasaabeq was also required to go to the racecourse for a stalls test during the 15-day gap between the bet365 Mile and Lockinge, so he’d had a busy time of things.
Having won on his debut at two, and again first time out as a three-year-old, four-year-old and five-year-old, this horse obviously needs a bit of time between races to be seen at his best, and I’m hoping the month since Newbury has allowed Hills to freshen him up enough for this major test – one which should suit him down to the ground, which seems likely to remain on the quick side in spite of the forecast sharp showers.
If he’s back on song, and there’s still room for a bit of further improvement in the blinkers which he’s worn only three times, I’d have him as one of Inspiral’s main dangers so he’s very much on the radar at current prices.
It could be a memorable day for Hills, who unleashes rising star Cicero’s Gift onto the major stage in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
I’ve made no secret of just how impressed I’ve been by this son of the same stable’s former champion sprinter Muhaarar, and the way he devoured the ground when asked to quicken in a conditions race at Goodwood the day before the 2000 Guineas was something to behold.
The Classic winners Chaldean and Paddington are quite closely matched but I’m not sure it’s an unsurmountable standard they have set for anything coming through the grades and Cicero’s Gift’s form has worked out positively.
We’ve seen in this race loads of times down the years that top-class colts can emerge from much cooler waters to make a name for themselves, the likes of Without Parole and handicap winner (at the time) Palace Pier springing to mind, along with Maljoom and My Prospero who ran massive races in defeat 12 months ago. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Cicero’s Gift could prove himself to be among the leading milers around as the year goes on.
Lad fancied to pop up at huge price
I’d be reluctant to oppose Highfield Princess in the King’s Stand Stakes as she’s unquestionably one of the top sprinters on the planet and it’ll be fascinating to see if John Quinn wants to turn her out again at the weekend should everything go to plan on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, the booking of Dettori for Manaccan some time ago has seen that one’s price dry up and the closest I came to a bet in the race was Desert Cop, but that feels a bit like forcing something that isn’t quite there, which would represent a stumble at the very first hurdle from a discipline perspective.
There are two good staying handicaps to get stuck into but the Listed Wolferton Stakes is just as competitive and loads can be given some sort of chance.
I’m keen to see a bit more of Poker Face, who could step forward nicely from the Huxley Stakes effort if held up off the strong pace here, but I can’t resist a small bet on complete outsider CERTAIN LAD.
Stop the footage of last year’s race (replay below) with a furlong and a half to travel and you’d be almost sure he’d go on to finish in the first four, but he was too keen for his own good early on, having blown the start when anticipating the the stalls opening, and that early freshness ultimately took its toll as he weakened to be eighth.
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He’s had a couple of runs to put him right this time around (came here after just the one run 12 months ago) and showed he’s still got plenty more to offer when third under a big weight in a Chester handicap last month.
Jack Channon will have been working back from this target again all along and Certain Lad, who is only a few pounds behind the best of these on adjusted Timeform ratings, is definitely being overlooked in the market as a largely exposed seven-year-old. There’s a strong pace on which should at least help him settle into things through the early stages this year.
Balding stayer on a very fair mark
Willie Mullins has made things difficult in the two big staying handicaps on the card – or perfectly simple if you enjoy steaming into short-priced favourites at the Royal meeting – and in truth I’ve found it close to impossible to take on last year’s runner-up Bring On The Night in the Ascot Stakes.
He’s only 4lb higher than when narrowly beaten by Coltrane, form which reads exceptionally well in hindsight with the winner now among the favourites for Thursday’s Gold Cup, and although not seen since, a long layoff has never stopped a Mullins horse showing its true colours.
Vauban, who could go off ridiculously short for the Copper Horse Handicap if Bring On The Night has already won, is a different proposition as he’s not run on the level in Britain or Ireland and has had a slightly frustrating jumps campaign which saw him bump into stablemate State Man three times and Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.
His BHA Flat mark of 101 could be very generous but he’s unproven on fast conditions too and, at the prices, I’m perfectly content to take him on with Andrew Balding’s BERKSHIRE ROCCO.
He’s got strong form on all types of ground including a course and distance victory in Listed company as a three-year-old. Life has been tougher for him since then but he did add to his tally when beating Rainbow Dreamer in a good conditions event over two miles at Southwell in January this year.
He backed that up with a creditable second at Kempton the following month and while unable to show his best in two subsequent starts, the soft ground at Newmarket last time didn’t appear to play to his strengths.
That race has thrown up five individual subsequent winners so it’s form to follow without question and I reckon Berkshire Rocco, who went off favourite, is worth another chance back on a sound surface off 1lb lower on only his second ever run in a handicap.
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Published at 1500 BST on 19/06/23
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