Royal Ascot rolls onto day three and our Matt Brocklebank tackles four competitive races this afternoon.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 134pts profit, while he's over 40pts up for the year.
Value Bet tips: Thursday, June 22
1pt win Cloudbreaker in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
1pt win Benacre in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 28/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win Theoryofeverything in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 22/1 (NON-RUNNER)
1pt win Oviedo in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 33/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Toimy Son in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 66/1 (William Hill, Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Big Ben to thrive in Britannia
Charlie Johnston’s three-year-olds have been absolutely flying along recently and the yard has sent out 15 winners from 57 three-year-old runners (26%) this month alone - backing them all to a £1 level stake would have put you over £30 in front.
Johnston runs three at big prices in the Britannia Stakes, although Urban Sprawl looks tailor-made for a return to Goodwood for the big meeting there next month, while Finn’s Charm is up against it under top weight on Thursday.
The stable’s third runner is BENACRE, who was sent off favourite to beat Finn’s Charm off level weights in the German 2000 Guineas when last seen and now receives 5lb from his stable companion. He also has the assistance of Jamie Spencer for the first time, which is never a bad thing on the straight track at Ascot (he’s won this race four times for four different trainers over the years).
Benacre has been ridden positively to this point, but a more patient approach looks like being employed here based on the jockey booking, and he’s surely well-handicapped from a mark of 96 having pushed Shouldvebeenaring close in the Listed King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket on his penultimate start.
Shouldvebeenaring has since split hot Commonwealth Cup favourite Little Big Bear and Tuesday’s King’s Stand winner Bradsell in the Sandy Lane at Haydock, earning a revised rating of 112, so Benacre is thrown in on the face of it.
The trip to Cologne for the Classic obviously didn’t go to plan, but I’m giving the son of Australia another chance over this stiff mile which should play more to his strengths.
He actually holds an entry over 10 furlongs at Newmarket next month (the valuable July Festival contest Mark Johnston has farmed over the years) and no doubt his future will lie over longer trips, but he’s obviously shown plenty of boot in mixing with some talented six and seven-furlong horses earlier in the campaign and I want him onside here before he goes up in distance.
Having a second string to the bow in the Britannia is perfectly reasonable and I’ll take the hint that THEORYOFEVERYTHING is the sole contender for John and Thady Gosden, who must have had a bunch of suitable candidates and rely on this lightly-raced individual for a race Gosden senior won four times back in the day.
Unraced as a juvenile, Frankel colt Theoryofeverything made a striking impression when winning a Doncaster novice on his belated racecourse debut on the opening weekend of the season, since when he’s improved to finish third in the Greenham, before taking a backward step on handicap debut when last sighted.
That most recent effort came at Chester when looking ill-at-ease around the tight turns and basically screaming out for a step up to this longer trip, something backed up by his quality pedigree.
The handicapper obviously wants to see a bit more of him before dropping him in the weights for finishing last of seven as the 7/4 favourite on the Roodee, and I’d be inclined to agree that he’s still sitting on a whole heap of potential in spite of that low-key final run.
With Dettori required to ride the Ralph Beckett-trained Quantum Impact for owner Marc Chan, Benoit De La Sayette takes over on Theoryofeverything and it may be a perfect match as the promising young rider, who has already snared a major Ascot handicap courtesy of Vafortino in last year’s Victoria Cup and earlier this season won the Lincoln on Migration, is fast becoming a bit of a master when it comes to delivering his mounts at the right time. And as I’m sure Spencer himself would maintain, timing is half the battle in this type of cavalry charge.
Cloud could burst into life up in trip
The Ribblesdale Stakes looks all about the supplemented Al Asifah, who really could be anything and is already a general 12/1 for the Arc de Triomphe.
For those desperate to take her on, I couldn’t put anyone off Warm Heart as a sporting alternative as I felt she maybe just wanted it that bit more than Bluestocking when they met at Newbury a month ago, and I see no real reason why the Beckett horse is so much shorter in the market.
I’ll give the Group 2 a miss, personally, but will lean on that very same Newbury race for a bet in the King George V Stakes as CLOUDBREAKER ran a new PB to finish fourth that day, finishing less than three lengths behind Warm Heart at the line.
Her trainer Charlie Fellowes has always held her in the highest regard and was speaking in Classic terms at the beginning of the season. She’s not come up to that level, but ran with credit when third over 10 furlongs on her handicap debut two starts back considering the ground was unsuitably soft.
She won her novice on a quick surface at Newmarket last July and evidently appreciated getting back on some better ground at Newbury, for which she’s due to go up another 4lb in the weights in future. That means she’s officially well-in for this assignment and the step up to a mile and a half could unlock further improvement given she’s a daughter of the great Sea The Stars.
Fellowes also applies cheekpieces on Thursday and he’s had five winners (from 45, admittedly) in the first-time-out in the same headgear before now.
Murphy mount catches the eye
The Gosdens have a very good chance in the Buckingham Palace Stakes too with Unforgotten but his price is plenty tight enough, perhaps predictably with Frankie back in the Godolphin blue, and preference is to take a chance on TOIMY SON, who will be David Menuisier’s first runner at Ascot this week.
Toimy Son was snapped up for £160,000 at the St-Cloud horses-in-training sale in the autumn of last year, having previously been trained by Yann Barberot, for whom the horse won three times including a Listed race over seven furlongs at Longchamp last spring.
The runner-up that day was Txope, who won a German Group 2 on his very next start before being sold to America for 1.2m euros, so Menuisier clearly has a very talented horse on his hands if the trainer is able to rekindle the fire at some stage.
He’s not shown a whole heap in three starts for his new stable but the BHA mark has taken a sharp dip as a result and he’s now able to run off 99, having arrived with a mark of 108. A 9lb drop for three quick runs looks generous given this colt’s back-class and the first-time blinkers are now enlisted in a bid to spark something positive.
A high draw may prove beneficial too with Cruyff Turn likely to set a good gallop towards the stands’ side rail, while the booking of Oisin Murphy is clearly encouraging as from nine rides for Menuisier in the past, he’s had two winners, two second and two thirds. It all adds up to an attractive each-way bet at big prices.
Bethell raider completely overlooked
Elsewhere on the day-three card, the Gold Cup and the Hampton Court Stakes are the other Group races and the market looks about right in the former, with Coltrane having fewest questions to answer in terms of trip, track, ground and general well-being.
He’s very much earned a crack at this race following his easy Sagaro Stakes win and looks dead uncomplicated which is a significant asset when it comes to the Gold Cup.
The betting for the Hampton Court is dominated by the two Gosden horses in the George Strawbridge silks, Torito and Epictetus, and I loved the way the former went about his business at Epsom earlier in the month.
The horse being totally underestimated in the betting, though, is Ed Bethell’s OVIEDO, who was third to Chaldean in last year’s Acomb at York and was back to his best – and more – when hacking up from a mark of 96 in a Redcar handicap late last month.
Bethell is making considerable waves on the northern circuit this season, a lot of his horses flying through the grades once getting their head in front, and it’s fascinating to see Oviedo running at pattern level rather than waiting for Saturday’s three-year-old-only Golden Gates handicap.
The Redcar race was his first go at the mile and a quarter distance and he absolutely loved it, while he’s now won both starts he’s had on good to firm ground so the forecast looks favourable to say the least. The general 33/1 is too tempting to miss.
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Published at 1500 BST on 21/06/23
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