Alex Hammond Blog and Tips including Arc de Triomphe

By Alex Hammond

Horse Racing

Sun October 01, 2023 · 2y ago

Sky Sports Racing presenter Alex Hammond looks ahead to the superb action from ParisLongchamp and Newmarket this weekend.

I’m back from some quality downtime with family and friends and feel fresh and raring to go. That R&R will come in handy because it’s hard to know where to start this weekend, with top quality action from Newmarket, and world class racing from ParisLongchamp with the prestigious Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe the crème de la crème of stellar weekend.

Saturday at ParisLongchamp offers a very tasty hors d’oeuvre to the main event on Sunday. Trueshan won the Prix du Cadran in 2021 and will be popular to repeat the feat after his win in the Doncaster Cup, but I’m taking him on with EMILY DICKINSON (who also had the Arc as an option).

With Ryan Moore required at Newmarket on Saturday, Frankie Dettori has been called upon to ride this filly for Aidan O'Brien. Frankie is riding with freedom and flair since he announced this would be his final season riding. He has risen to every challenge this year and has won races others would not.

Like Trueshan, Emily Dickinson will enjoy the soft ground, and whilst it’s not going to be a bog in Paris, it should be soft enough for both. The trip suited O’Brien’s filly when she was fourth in the Gold Cup at Ascot but the ground there was too lively, so conditions should be ideal on Saturday.

Frankie may have a tougher task in the big one on Sunday. He heads to the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with six previous victories under his belt and relies on Free Wind to provide him with a seventh. She not out of it, but I imagine if he were able to pick anything in the field, it wouldn’t be this girl as a first choice.

Favourite with Sky Bet is ACE IMPACT at 3/1. If you haven’t yet been caught up in the hype, let me fill you in. He’s trained in France by Jean-Claude Rouget (he of Sottsass winning fame in 2020) and has an unblemished record. He dismissed his rivals in three lower grade races until taking the leap into Group 1/classic company in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) where he made light work of a classy field.

He was given a little break after that, came back in a Group 2 at Deauville in August where once again, he did what was required. His run up to this has been less arduous than most but he does have some boxes unchecked. The mile and a half trip is an unknown, as it the track. He has speed to burn and a finishing kick that would take your breath away, but he needs to settle over this new trip.

He could burn them off if he does, in an Arc that won’t rely quite as strongly on stamina as it has recently, given the recent pleasant conditions in Paris. I really like him and think he’s the one to beat, but what about some of his other rivals?

Aidan O’Brien is bidding to defy the stats that say a St Leger winner can’t go on to win the Arc in the same season. Continuous didn’t appear to have too hard a race at Doncaster and that was borne out as he lost just a couple of kg, which he has subsequently put back on. Of course, the vibes coming out of Ballydoyle are positive, but he may not have enough toe to beat the likes of Ace Impact if it’s a speedier renewal of the Arc on better ground than we’ve seen for a few years. He’s a 5/1 shot.

Hukum (9/2 second fav) and Westover (6/1) can be mentioned in the same section here after their ding dong tussle in the King George at Ascot in July that saw the former prevail by just a head from the latter. Hukum is a dependable soul, Westover less so. It could be that neither colt has been helped by the draw.

Hukum is very wide in fourteen, and Westover is in one. Westover is a free going horse who needs to get some cover, so one could be a nightmare. That sounds dismissive of Westover, and that’s not my intention. There’s plenty to like about him and he is becoming more tractable as he matures.

Feed The Flame is the final horse in single figures in the betting at 8/1 and he can’t be dismissed after his encouraging trial in the Prix Niel. He was beaten there by Fantastic Moon who reopposes, but I’d hope he’s able to turn that form around here. He was settled in last that day and his pacemaker did more useful work for the eventual winner, who sat in second and was in a better position to pounce when the early leader capitulated. Feed The Flame stayed on with no chance of reeling them in.

Sir Michael Stoute tried something new with Bay Bridge last time out when stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time in his fourteen race career. It did the trick, and there could be more to come now he has proven it’s within his range.

In summary, I’m an enthusiastic follower of Ace Impact and the well deserved hype hasn’t passed me by. I have taken some of the 3/1 and hope that it looks value at around 3.15 Sunday afternoon.

Frankie may find it hard to add to his record six Arc wins, but he may sign off with a winner courtesy of Kinross in the Qatar Prix de la Foret. The pair teamed up to win this twelve months ago and are even money favourite to repeat that performance.

Let’s give Newmarket a quick mention because there are a few horses I’ll be watching from afar at HQ. The first race on Saturday is the Juddmonte Royal Lodge where Aidan O’Brien’s Capulet is 15/8 favourite with Sky Bet. The firm are giving us money back if your horse finishes second or third, so I’m going to take him on with GHOSTWRITER who is a 9/2 shot.

The Clive Cox trained juvenile is unbeaten in two starts and I was lucky enough to see him win at Ascot where he won last time out. He gave weight to all his rivals there and it looked an impressive performance. He’s sure to come on for that (mentally at the very least) because he was acting quite babyish in the paddock beforehand. As he becomes more professional, he’ll be even more of a force, and I hope that day is now.

I won’t be jumping ship from RELIEF RALLY in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes having followed her at Royal Ascot (unlucky second) and beyond. She has continued to progress, and this move into Group 1 company was the natural next step.

She may well be at her best this season as she’s not the biggest, so William Haggas is making hay while the sun shines. She’s 2/1 favourite with Sky Bet.

The second Group 1 of the day at Newmarket is the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes where VANDEEK takes on River Tiber again after the pair finished first and third in the Prix Morny last time out. French super filly Ramatuelle split them at Deauville.

Aidan O’Brien reported that his Coventry winner River Tiber had suffered a muscle strain in the run up to the Deauville Group 1, so you’d imagine he’d have more to offer here. Having said that, Vandeek is unbeaten in all three of his outings to date and he’s getting better and better. Vandeek is 7/4 favourite with River Tiber a 2/1 shot.

The big betting race is the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap at 3.40.

I’ve had a little each way wager on BOPEDRO at 14/1 with Sky Bet. David O’Meara is handy at producing these handicappers for specific targets and this horse won on his only start on the Rowley Mile (over a mile), he got no run at Leopardstown last time out and he’s versatile ground wise.

He's not had many chances beyond a mile, so hopefully he’ll stretch out successfully over this extra furlong.

Published at 1630 BST on 29/09/23

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