Arc de Triomphe tips: Who will win Europe's premier Flat race on Sunday?
Our team of experts nail their colours to the mast ahead of Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp.
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1)
When: 3.05, Sunday October 1
Where: ParisLongchamp
First prize: £2,528,31915
Going: Good to soft
TV: ITV & Sky Sports Racing
Ace Impact (David Ord)
The only question mark over ACE IMPACT going into the Arc is will he stay? The pedigree offers every encouragement, as does the way he’s been finishing his races over 10 furlongs. The bigger concern is what happens in the first two as he needs to settle better than he has been, but if he switches off and gets home then his Group One turn of foot can settle the Arc by sweeping him past Hukum and Westover.
Hukum (Ben Linfoot)
HUKUM looks the bet in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for Owen Burrows. His wide draw in 14 isn’t one you’d pick but he can cope with the hand he has been dealt either by staying wide, like Frankie Dettori on Golden Horn, or by dropping in under Jim Crowley. The full-brother to Baaeed has the best form at the trip in the race for my money, his superb King George win at Ascot the best showcase of his talents, and he can confirm the form with Westover who can be headstrong in the early stages. Hukum is a seasoned pro these days, tactically versatile and very straightforward, and he can stay on the strongest to ensure a defining day for his trainer, jockey and owner.
Continuous (Matt Brocklebank)
CONTINUOUS was kicked into touch by Ace Impact in the Prix du Jockey Club but since that day at Chantilly in June, the winner has been wrapped up in cotton-wool and is yet to be tested over a mile and a half, while Aidan O’Brien’s representative has become a battle-hardened colt who appears to be flourishing in the autumn of his Classic campaign. He obviously wasn’t the finished article in the Dante or the French Derby but the trip to Royal Ascot appeared to put a few hairs on his chest and it’s hard to fault his performances in the Great Voltigeur and St Leger. He obviously stays this trip strongly but he’s got a nice change of gear now too and he’s perfectly happy on any ground too. I accept Leger winners have a poor record and O’Brien’s Arc strike-rate with three-year-olds isn’t exactly earth-shattering either, but I’d prefer to treat each horse individually and this son of Heart’s Cry might just be a true champion in the making.
Westover (Graeme North)
If you are looking for a reason to oppose either Ace Impact or Continuous you’ll be keen to know that no horse untried beyond ten and a half furlongs has won the Arc this century and that only one of the thirty three-year-olds Aidan O’Brien has run in the race has made the first three. That said, the older horses had the clear advantage in the key middle-distance formline from the summer, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and the simple truth may well be that the first two from that race, Hukum and WESTOVER, are a notch above either Ace Impact or Continuous. That’s not reflected in the market, however, with preference at the odds for Westover at a tasty price back on what promises to be a faster surface than Ascot from an inside draw.
Hukum (Greg Spink)
This looks a deep renewal of Europe's premier middle-distance prize and HUKUM is fancied to remain unbeaten this term having taken notable scalps in the Brigadier Gerrard at Sandown (beating Desert Crown) and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (beating the reopposing Westover). Stall 14 does complicate things a touch, but he’s as straightforward and tough as they come so at around odds of 6/1, Owen Burrows' 6-y-o can cap a fine season for the Shadwell operation and notch a third career Group 1.
Westover (Kieran Clark)
He might’ve only finished sixth in last year’s renewal - when possibly blunted by the very soft ground - but WESTOVER has returned better than ever this campaign and boasts some of the strongest form on offer. He chased home the world-class Equinox on his reappearance in Dubai and, following a success at short odds in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, then posted a career-best when going down fighting behind Hukum in the King George, proving himself a top-class middle distance performer. With a high draw casting doubts over the claims of his Ascot conqueror and the longer trip not guaranteed to suit the unbeaten favourite Ace Impact, he looks the value play at 7/1, likely to be ridden fairly close to the pace with it historically proving hard to come from too far back.
WATCH: Hukum beats Westover in the King George
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Hukum (Billy Nash)
The fact that no six-year-old has ever won the Arc is clearly a cause for concern but I think HUKUM can buck that trend on Sunday. He is clearly getting better with age, comes here on the back of a career-best effort in the King George and this race has been his main target all year. The forecast good ground should be fine and a wide berth is not the death knell some people are making it out to be, Torquator Tasso, Found and Golden Horn all having won from a double-figure draw in recent years.
Hukum (Andrew McLaren)
There’s been a lot made of HUKUM's draw in stall 14 but he’s a tactically versatile, uncomplicated horse so Crowley can do what he wants with him from his wide berth (Dettori on Golden Horn, anyone?). We know he stays the trip well, but he seems to be getting faster as he gets older so shouldn’t have any issues if it gets tactical, which is a possibility, and for me he’s the one they all have to beat.
Westover (David Johnson)
The King George looks to hold the key to the Arc and WESTOVER is the best bet. He’s much more the finished article as a 4-y-o, has form as good as any, comes here on the back of a career-best and stays a mile and a half very well. His inside stall possibly isn’t ideal, though very low is preferred to being stuck wide and he must go well granted a clear run.
Hukum (Lewis Tomlinson)
Whilst the obvious acknowledgement needs to be made that stall 14 is closer to being a negative than a positive, I still think HUKUM - the best 12-furlong horse in Europe to my eyes - makes most appeal at the current prices. Certainly, horses from similar draws have won stronger renewals of the Arc in recent years and the lengthy run to the first bend is surely sufficient for Crowley to minimise any potential damage on a horse who is straightforward enough to adopt any tactics his rider sees fit. He’s always been a strong stayer at the trip, but his defeat of Desert Crown on his comeback showed both tactical speed and a fine turn of foot, whilst in terms of opposition, I’d be inclined to suggest there’s less depth to Hukum’s opposition than when edging out Westover in the King George, so a replication of that effort may be enough to cap a stellar season.
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