Aintree tips: Best value bets for Friday April 14 day two of Grand National Festival
Two each-way bets at big prices for our Matt Brocklebank as he looks ahead to day two of the Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 116pts profit.
- Last year's winners included Desert Crown in the Derby at 25/1 and Noble Yeats at 50/1, while this year he's tipped Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1 and Saturday winner Tiger Jet at 16/1.
Value Bet tips: Friday, April 14
1pt e.w. Off Your Rocco in 2.20 Aintree at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Numitor in 4.05 Aintree at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
There’s clearly no better jockey than Paul Townend right now and plenty of punters will be putting their faith in Willie Mullins' main man when it comes to the two principal races over the National fences at Aintree this week.
Townend, who has produced stunning rides on Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup, Carefully Selected in the Thyestes and I Am Maximus in Monday’s Irish Grand National already this season, has stayed loyal to Haut En Couleurs in Friday’s Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase, and it’s not hard to imagine the six-year-old running another massive race with a strong pace to track after his excellent fifth in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival last month.
He’s not been given any respite from the assessor on the back of that run, though, and top-weight Haut En Couleurs hasn’t always been the strongest of finishers either – most notably when second after looking all over Janidil in the Red Mills at Gowran in February – and he is possibly worth opposing with something that looks likely to be ridden a bit closer to the early gallop.
The good thing about big-race selection NUMITOR is that he showed at Newbury last time that he doesn’t have to lead in order to produce the goods and, with Adam Wedge taking the ride for the first time that day, it did have the look of a little fact-finding mission with a big spring target like Aintree in mind.
The grey jumped well for Wedge (retained here) and ran right up to his peak form, if not producing a new career-best, and time will tell he bumped into a very progressive and well-treated rival in Dan Skelton’s Heltenham.
Numitor held his form well into March and April last spring when first and second at Doncaster and Haydock respectively, while this will be his third outing after a winter breathing operation which has evidently given him a new lease of life.
He’s definitely overpriced at 33/1 and rates a good each-way bet on good to soft ground (few more showers in the forecast) which looks about perfect for him.
The other really attractive punting race likely to throw up a big-priced winner is the William Hill Handicap Hurdle and I can’t get away from Gordon Elliott’s OFF YOUR ROCCO off the bottom rung with Kieren Buckley claiming 3lb.
Elliott won this race in 2019 (Three Musketeers, 8/1) and his yard sent out Tronador when successful under the Denise Foster banner in 2021, so it’s a race at which they clearly like to aim.
Tronador was a largely unconsidered 22/1 shot under a low weight and I think Off Your Rocco is sneaking into it after a light campaign which started with a couple of low-key runs at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in December.
He was ultimately well held on his return to action in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last month as well, finished behind a few of these reopposing rivals including No Ordinary Joe and Camprond, but he ran really well for a long way and wasn't unduly punished by rider Sam Ewing when his chance had gone after turning for home.
He’s been dropped 3lb for that effort which looks decidedly hasty given he won a Listed novice event at Limerick early on last season and win, lose or draw at Aintree this week, the Pioneer Racing syndicate are in for a fun summer with this lightly-raced seven-year-old. I'd be sweet on him at 16s or bigger.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1630 BST on 13/04/23
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org