Cycling expert Joe Rindl provides an in-depth preview of the Tour de France, with Primoz Roglic fancied to be sipping champagne on the Champs-Élysées.
Tour de France betting tips: June 26-July 18
4pts Primoz Roglic to win the Tour de France at 12/5 (Betway)
1pt e.w. Richard Carapaz to win the Tour de France at 10/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3)
2pts Peter Sagan to win the green jersey at 16/5 (SBK)
1pt e.w. Guillaume Martin to win the polka dot jersey at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3)
Last year’s Tour de France treated us to a finale which matched the tension, tenacity and tears of the epic 1989 event.
Just as we still talk about Greg Lemond's historic time trial to overhaul two-time winner Laurent Fignon, we’ll be playing back Tadej Pogacar’s stunning TT ride on the penultimate stage of the 2020 tour for years to come.
Having not worn yellow all tour, Pogacar gained a minute and 56 seconds on leader Primoz Roglic, winning the stage, the general classification, mountains classification, and young rider's classification in the process.
He was, and still is, a different beast. It’s no surprise that the 22-year-old is the 5/4 favourite with some bookies to repeat his win.
The thing is, I just can’t see the defending champion holding on to his crown.
Why Pogacar should be avoided
Reason number one is form. Pogacar’s record at grand tours is incredible. Two appearances have amounted to a third-placed finish at the Vuelta a Espana in 2019 and a Tour win on debut.
This season he started with an air of invincibility, winning Tirreno–Adriatico, the Tour of UAE and Liege-Baston-Liege in Spring. Recently though, his absence from the UCI world circuit has been worrying.
His warm-ups for the Tour de France have been a win almost uncontested at the Tour of Slovenia and a shock third-place finish at Slovenia’s national time trial championship. No slog up the Alps at the Criterium du Dauphine or the Tour de Romandie for Tadej.
Reason number two is the weather. This year’s tour will be one to watch from the Grand Depart. The route starts in Brittany and week one is expecting rain, wind and low temperatures as riders traverse punchy hills in the north. Put simply, we won’t be waiting until the mountains for our first slice of general classification action.
There will be battles at the front of the peloton as echelons form. To stay in contention, you’ll need a strong team around you and Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates pales in comparison to the rosters of Ineos Grenadiers and Team Jumbo–Visma.
Reason number three is time trials. We’ve got 58 kilometres of them. Pogacar may have shocked Roglic on a TT bike last July, but that was uphill at the end of a three-week battle. Traditionally the likes of Roglic and Geraint Thomas have the edge against the clock.
You may have faith in the youngster, but I’m unconvinced. Though if not Pogacar, then who?
Back Roglic to win Le Tour
I’ll be putting my money on PRIMOZ ROGLIC to win Le Tour. For the Slovenian it’s all about banishing the demons of 2020. The 31-year-old was wearing yellow for almost two weeks before it slipped from his grasp on stage 20.
A year later, Roglic has one of the toughest teams around him and he also ticks the strong flat time-trialist box. He may be starting Le Tour having not pinned on a race number in 60 days, but unlike Pogacar’s absence from the big events I get the feeling Roglic and Jumbo-Visma know what they are doing and that this is all part of some elaborate masterplan.
The two-time Vuelta winner has been training at altitude, his last stage race coming at the Tour of the Basque Country in April, an event which he won beating Pogacar by a minute and seven seconds.
At 12/5 with Betway, backing Roglic seems a steal.
I profiled the Slovenian cyclist Primož Roglič and ended up with a piece about being lost and trying to find one’s way in the world https://t.co/G2PQmmTCjM
— kate wagner @ le tour 🇫🇷🥖🚴🏼♀️ (@mcmansionhell) June 22, 2021
What about Ineos?
Last year ended five straight tours of Sky-Ineos Grenadiers dominance. At the 2021 event, the best an IG rider finished was 13th. It seems general manager Sir Dave Brailsford is determined that won’t happen again.
Cyclist.com put it best: "Ineos Grenadiers are heading to the Tour de France with a former Tour winner, a former Vuelta a Espana winner who also won this year’s Tour de Suisse, a former Giro d’Italia winner, the current Dauphine champion who finished last year’s Tour third, a former road race world champion, a former time trial world champion and Luke Rowe."
That’s a team without Egan Bernal by the way.
So, who will lead the IG train? Geraint Thomas is the favourite among them at 5/1 to win a second TdF title. The Welshman, 35, won the Tour de Romandie in May, took a stage win and third overall at the Criterium du Dauphine, and finished third at the Volta a Catalunya earlier in the season.
My money though is on RICHARD CARAPAZ to emerge as the team’s strongest rider. Carapaz has ridden everyone off his wheel at this month’s Tour de Suisse, beating a packed field which includes the likes of Rigoberto Uran and Jakob Fuglasang.
If the Ecuadorian had been the side’s leader from the get-go at last year’s tour he’d have been challenging for a podium. At the 2020 Vuelta, a course heavily suiting Roglic, he finished just 24 seconds behind the favourite.
With one grand tour to his name, he’s won as many as Thomas and Pogacar, riding to victory at the 2019 Giro d’Italia. There he won while at Movistar, originally third of three team leaders. He cantered to victory, winning by over a minute to Vincenzo Nibali and more than two minutes ahead of his nearest teammate Mikel Landa.
Don’t be surprised if he does the same this July. At 10/1 and drifting - with each way terms of 1/4 paying out for a podium finish - he offers immense value.
Will Froome have a chance?
And finally, what of Chris Froome? The four-time winner is still on the long road back after his serious crash while training in 2019. Now at Israel Start-Up Nation, the 36-year-old Brit finished 96th at the Tour de Romandie and 93rd at the Tour of the Alps.
At 1000/1 with William Hill, Froome isn’t winning the Tour de France. This year he’s merely a domestique for Canadian Michael Woods.
Go green with Sagan
I can’t see anyone standing in the way of PETER SAGAN and an eighth green jersey.
Last year the Slovakian superstar missed out on the points classification title for only the second time in his Tour de France career, finishing a vast 96 points behind Ireland’s Sam Bennet.
Sagan never really got going in 2020. Missing out on the tune-up of the spring classics (cancelled because of Covid), the former world champion came into the Tour de France off-colour and without a single stage victory that season. He would be winless through Le Tour too.
This year though Sagan looks as strong as ever. The 31-year-old took the points classification at May’s Giro d’Italia, claiming the maglia ciclamino after winning stage 10, and keeping hold of the jersey all the way to Milan.
Add a first mauve jersey to a seventh national road race title, a fourth place finish at Milan-San Remo and stage wins on the Tour de Romandie and Volta a Catalunya and you’ve got Sagan in scarily good form. I’m not sure even 2020 Bennet could stop that.
Can Cavendish sprint to victory?
Speaking of which, this year Le Tour is without Bennet with the Irishman suffering a late knee injury. Deceuninck–Quick-Step have replaced their outgoing sprinter in favour of 30-time TdF stage winner Mark Cavendish.
It'll be great to see Cav back at the tour after a three-year absence, even if we’re to be denied an epic Sagan-Bennet battle. The 36-year-old has shaken off retirement rumours, taking his first four professional victories since 2018, winning stages 2, 3, 4 and 8 of the Tour of Turkey in April.
The Brit is 11/1 to be wearing green in Paris but I just don’t see it. Even at the top of his game Cavendish has never been a match for Sagan at racking up the points, especially on the intermediate sprints in the mountains.
Go with Sagan. At 16/5 with SBK he’s ridiculously long. The seven-time green jersey winner hasn’t been this kind of price since he was a tour rookie, and the general 9/4 still seems very fair.
A dream of mine for many years comes true today! So happy and proud to have won the Ciclamino jersey of the @giroditalia! Thanks to everybody that worked to make it happen. @BORAhansgrohe @BORAGmbH @Hansgrohe_PR @iamspecialized @sportful @ride100percent https://t.co/CeHZHhtBAi
— Peter Sagan (@petosagan) May 30, 2021
Who will win the King of the Mountains?
Ah the King of the Mountains, every tipster's nightmare. To win the polka dot jersey you’ve got to have plenty of good fortune about you. Some cyclists target KoM glory, others have the KoM thrust upon them.
Take last year’s battle for instance. The peloton seemed content to let Benoit Cosnefroy hold the jersey for over two weeks before Carapaz almost inadvertently took it off him. On the final stage of the race Pogacar stole the jersey as part of his heroic time trial.
Nobody wanted to be King of the Mountains that year, it just sort of happened.
Having said that, I don’t see this year’s course setting up another yellow-polka dot jersey double. Instead, I think this crown goes to someone who will be eyeing it up from the off.
I am going for Frenchman GUILLAUME MARTIN, winner of the KoM title at the 2020 Vuelta a Espana, at 12/1.
As a rider for Cofidis it’s unlikely his team will have the resources to mount a GC charge. Instead he’ll be given a free rein to hunt as many mountain stages as possible.
Martin held the Vuelta KoM from stage seven to 21, ending the event with a 65-point advantage over his nearest rival. He looks a tasty price considering he’s got form in the mountains this year, winning the European tour race the Mercan'Tour Classic Alpes-Maritimes and finishing sixth overall at Paris–Nice.
Avoid the young rider and team classifications
Just before I sign off, two classifications remain. The young jersey markets are ones I’d urge punters to steer clear of. Pogacar may not win yellow, but he’s in a world of his own in the under 26 category.
The 22-year-old is odds-on at 4/11 to win the white jersey. The next shortest odds go to David Gaudu at 11/2.
The French rider may have won the young rider classification at this year’s Criterium du Dauphine, but I’m still reminded of his DNF at the 2020 Tour de France on stage 16. At the start of that day he was a mammoth 1:46:19 behind Pogacar in the standings.
Backing the Slovenian as the favourite would really be the only option, and at 4/11 it's easy to let that pass.
As for the team classification, many will be tempted to side with Movistar - winners in five of the last six years - at 6/5.
The team classification is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team per stage and it’s a ranking that has been almost exclusively ignored by all but the Spanish team, victors of the last three titles.
But I’d be wary considering the strength of rosters for both Ineos Grenadiers (11/8 with William Hill) and Jumbo-Visma (11/1 with bet365). As this market only pays outright winners, it’s another to avoid.
Posted at 1145 BST on 24/06/21
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