NFL expert Ross Williams kicks off our coverage of the new season with his Super Bowl antepost preview, now available to all Sporting Life readers.
Super Bowl LXI betting tips
3pts e.w. Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl LXI at 10/1 (General 1/2 1-2)
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting results.”
I’ll level with you from the off, one of Einstein’s most famous quotes presents a solid case against what you’re about to read.
Those familiar with my 2025 season preview – and my pick to win Super Bowl LX – may experience a sense of déjà vu in the following column.
Twelve months ago, I hitched my wagon to an AFC team, heading into the season with a top-five scoring offence, responsible for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
Today, I’m hitching my wagon to an AFC team, heading into the season with a top-five scoring offence, responsible for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
For so many reasons, the BUFFALO BILLS remain a rock-solid pick to go all the way.
A year ago, they were available at 7/1 to win the big one. This time around, you can comfortably pick up odds of 10/1 for the Bills to finally achieve Super Bowl glory, an honour that has eluded them in the post-merger era of the NFL.
The price increase, year-on-year, suggests a weakening of the Bills’ chances, but – in reality – it is not a true indication that Buffalo are a poorer overall proposition this season. In fact, I believe they’re actually stronger – but we’ll get to that.
The reason for the drifting price is the sheer market confidence in the Los Angeles Rams, so we’ll address that first.
The NFC West outfit have become the darlings of the offseason after completing huge trades for Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, while also luring back the once-retired Aaron Donald. Throw the reigning MVP Matt Stafford into the mix and the allure of the Rams is understandable, but the prospect of backing any team at 9/2 to win the Super Bowl, at this stage of the year? No thanks.
Stafford, as resilient as he’s been over the course of his career, is now 38 and on the precipice of his NFL twilight – emphasised by Los Angeles’ uncharacteristic punt at this year’s NFL Draft, selecting Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson in the top half of the first round.
The Rams also have a gauntlet in front of them, due to the sheer quality of their division. Arizona aside – who should be an easy out for just about anyone this year – the NFC West is stacked. The 49ers matched the Rams’ win tally of 12 last season and represent a very tough challenge, while there’s also the small matter of a double meeting with the reigning champions, the Seattle Seahawks.
Los Angeles are undoubtedly a great team and – pound-for-pound – they probably possess the best overall roster in the NFL, but the price is simply too rich for me. I cannot justify a 9/2 selection that relies on a number of extremely talented but ageing veterans to remain healthy and productive all season, while frequently battling with their fellow Super Bowl contenders.
So, let’s get back to Buffalo, shall we?
As per a year ago, the primary reason to love the Bills’ title credentials is their quarterback.
In the most complimentary terms possible, Josh Allen is a freak.
The Bills’ quarterback already has an MVP award on the mantlepiece, four Pro Bowl selections and – at the age of 30 – he has cemented his place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a first-ballot entrant. Perhaps most impressively of all, he’s also a record-breaker, having punched in more rushing touchdowns (79) than any quarterback in the history of the game.
He is the ultimate dual-threat QB in the sport and it’s why his Buffalo offence has been so potent, so consistently.
Since the 2020 season, when the penny really dropped for Allen after two fairly ordinary years in the league, the Bills have ranked #2 (2020), #3 (2021), #2 (2022), #6 (2023), #2 (2024) and #4 (2025) in the NFL for points scored per game.
That is simply remarkable consistency at the elite level of the sport and this offensive prowess has coincided with a sustained period of regular season dominance. The Bills are on a run of seven straight seasons with 10+ wins, resulting in a string of postseason appearances.
That streak isn’t likely to end any time soon. The Bills’ roster has gone through change this offseason, but the incomings were far more headline-grabbing than the departures.
The likes of Matt Milano and Taron Johnson require replacement on the defensive side of the roster, but Buffalo were aggressive in their pursuit of Bradley Chubb – an edge-rusher with genuine game-changing ability. For a team that has consistently played in January but, to date, failed to make that final step, I like that progressive approach.
As for the offence, the addition of D.J. Moore is an eye-catcher.
Josh Allen’s passing numbers have been good-to-great anyway over the last few seasons and that’s often been without the luxury of a genuine WR1. In Moore, he now has one; an explosive receiver who has put up solid numbers in his eight years in the league, despite being involved in offences that have been largely middling at best.
Adding a legitimate weapon to an offence that has already been one of the NFL’s best for an extended period is an exciting prospect for Buffalo fans.
Doubters of the Bills’ credentials may point to the offseason coaching changes as a reason to look elsewhere, but it isn’t something that puts me off.
Although they have moved on from head coach Sean McDermott, continuity was clearly important to the front office. Joe Brady is taking the HC reins and will continue to call plays for the offence, while Jim Leonhard is making the step up to defensive coordinator.
When success has been sustained, hiring from within is generally a good policy.
All told, I’m anticipating a Buffalo team in 2026 that will be challenging at the business end and it seems inevitable that – at some point – they will get over the hump.
In the last three seasons, they’ve experienced a trio of three-point defeats in the Play-Offs. At some point, that tide is going to turn and the additions of stars like Moore and Chubb linking up with an elite quarterback at the peak of his powers gives me enough confidence that this may well be the year.
Yes, we’re going back to the well. Yes, we’re doing the same thing over and over and expecting results.
But I don’t think backing an improved Bills at 10/1 is insanity. Besides, there’s no proof Einstein ever said that anyway.
Posted at 12:35 BST on 04/09/26
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