NFL betting tips: Week 16 best bets including Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

NFL betting tips: Week 16

2pts A.J. Brown (Eagles) over 76.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (General)

3pts Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) over 63.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (General)

1pt Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) 100+ receiving yards at 4/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

• Sunday 1800 GMT, live on Sky Sports

The Jalen Hurts-A.J. BROWN connection was utilised to its full effect against the Steelers last weekend and I’m banking on a repeat as they head to Washington.

Brown was targeted 11 times – a season-high – and he turned those opportunities into eight receptions, which is also his highest mark of the 2024 campaign.

All told, Brown went for 110 yards and that makes the prospect of him surpassing his line of 76.5 yards on Sunday extremely tempting.

Philadelphia’s run game – led by Saquon Barkley – is sensational, but that only serves to increase the effectives of what the Eagles can do through the air, when Jalen Hurts is on song.

Defences are understandably fixated on stopping the Eagles’ relentless ground assault and that opens up opportunities. Both Brown and Devonta Smith enjoyed 100-yard receiving games against Pittsburgh for this very reason.

As we approach the postseason, the Eagles will be keen to continue their winning streak and going to the strategy that worked so well a week ago seems an obvious route to victory over the Commanders.

It’s also clear that the Eagles will need to utilise a rounded offensive approach if they’re to end the season as world champions, and this is a great opportunity to sharpen up their tools against a defence ranked in the top 10.

Brown has averaged 86 yards per game, through 11 games, and has cleared 77+ yards on seven occasions, falling short of the mark only four times.

Let’s go with in-form A.J. to kick off our Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

• Sunday 2105 GMT, live on Sky Sports

We’re doubling up with receiver lines this week, and JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA is our second play.

The Seattle WR has been on fire of late and he has a great match-up against a Vikings defence that allows a surprising amount of yardage through the air.

Only the Ravens and Jaguars have allowed more passing yardage per game this season than Minnesota. Brian Flores’ unit get to the quarterback quickly – they’re the most prolific blitzing team in the NFL – and this has its obvious benefits. But it also creates a high volume of passing offence as QBs have no choice but to release the ball early.

Seattle quarterback Geno Smith is set to play this weekend, but he’s carrying a knock that meant he didn’t see out the final minutes of last week’s clash with Green Bay. It goes without saying that he’ll want to avoid too many collisions on Sunday and, seeing as he won’t be as mobile as usual, that means we can expect plenty of passes.

That’s where Smith-Njigba comes in.

The young receiver has really come of age this season and, at present, he looks to be the preferred receiving option on the team. He caught 10 balls against the Packers last week and it was the third time this season he’s picked up 10+ receptions.

The Packers defence have allowed 448 fewer passing yards than Minnesota this season, so this is an even more favourable match-up coming up for JSN.

Of course, the Vikings offence have been excellent this year too, averaging 26.4 points, so Seattle will probably have to turn this game into a shootout to get themselves back into the win column. Hence, even more emphasis on the passing game.

Smith-Njigba’s line is set at 63.5 and I think that’s low enough to consider a decent bet. He’s cleared 64+ yards for seven straight games and, on paper, this is his most appealing match-up of the season. Even if JSN doesn’t do anything particularly extravagant and remains on his average of six catches per game, the numbers work out in our favour.

The Vikings allow a full 11 yards per reception on average, so at least 66 yards is well in play.

In the interest of value though, it’s worth looking at the prospect of a 100-yard game at a healthy 4/1 price point.

The Seahawks’ star has had three such performance this season already and if he picks up anything close to the 12 targets he saw last week, he could clear the century mark with relative ease.

Posted at 1645 GMT on 21/12/24

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