After returning profit in last week's preview - including a 7/2 winner - Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.
1pt Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown at 13/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt Cordarrelle Patterson to score anytime at 7/5 (Paddy Power)
1pt Sam Darnold to score a touchdown at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jonnu Smith to score anytime at 16/5 (Paddy Power)
The 2021 Falcons are not a good team, but Arthur Smith has blessed us all - as the coach to finally unlock Patterson. The Jack-of-all-trades has been unstoppable this year with five touchdowns through his first four games, and I predict another in London. The Jets have conceded more yards to RBs than any other team (including 288 through the air – where Patterson is most lethal), alongside five TDs to the position – the second most in the league. The Falcons are without WR1 & WR2 with both Calvin Ridley & Russell Gage not travelling to London – Patterson will see even more volume as the focal point of their offence. The brace at 8/1 is real value, too.
Last week I spoke about Dawson Knox against the Texans, and he went off for two touchdowns. The Texans have the second worst defence in the league to tight ends, and they’re conceding an average of 29 points per game through four weeks. Jonnu Smith is fresh off his best game as a Patriot, where he saw five targets (three of them with just goal-to-go), as he hauled in his first score of the year. Smith has established himself as the Patriots end-zone threat – and shows real value at a big price in a plus-matchup on Sunday.
It’s Sam Newton season! Darnold has scored braces in his last two games and has five rushing TDs on the season – he’s the league leader?! With Christian McCaffrey still struggling with injury (he’s doubtful for Sunday), the Panthers would be wise to lean into Darnold’s rushing, especially so in the red zone. He has six red zone touches on the year, including four with goal-to-go. If CMC is out, Darnold is big value to score against the Eagles.
With Joe Burrow at the helm, the Bengals are for real – this game will be a fascinating watch. Joe Mixon has missed every single practice this week, and is officially questionable for Sunday – this opens the door to Samaje Perine. If Mixon is out then Perine will step up as the starter, and he faces a porous Packers’ defence – conceding 444 yards to RBs alongside four TDs to the position. This game has potential to be a shoot-out, and will be closer than most expect. If Mixon is not at 100%, expect Perine to be heavily involved.
For two weeks in a row, Dalton Schultz has led the Cowboys in targets, in a team with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and more! Schultz has scored three touchdowns in his last two games, and I cannot believe his price going into this game. The Giants have the fourth worst defence in the league to TEs, and they’ve allowed more TDs to the position than any other team in the league. Schultz has three red zone targets over his last two games, including two with just goal-to-go last weekend. This Giants team allowed nine targets to Kyle Pitts last weekend – showing clear holes in the middle of the field. Schultz is huge value to score this week.
Odds correct as of 1230 BST (09/10/21)
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.