NFL betting tips: Best touchdown scorers and best bets for Week 13
With a range of winners so far, Matt Temple-Marsh is back to look for more offensive/defensive mismatches, sneaky backups and more, with some high value touchdown scorers definitely worth taking a look at.
NFL betting tips: Week 13
1pt Boston Scott to score anytime in Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets at 12/5 (General)
1pt Sterling Shepard to score anytime in New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins at 3/1 (General)
1pt James O’Shaughnessy to score anytime in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt CJ Uzomah to score anytime in Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals at 3/1 (Unibet/Boyle Sports)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Boston Scott to score anytime at 12/5 (General)
The New York Jets' run defense is horrendous – by far the worst in the league with 21 touchdowns conceded to running backs, four more than any other team.
Last week, Boston Scott saw a 62% rushing share and a 10% target share as he scored against the Giants. Miles Sanders did exit the game early with an ankle injury, and even though he’s now a full participant again at practice, I still love Scott’s chances.
Fellow RB Jordan Howard has missed two practices so far this week and is unlikely to feature on Sunday. This leaves a huge role available to Scott, who will be able to capitalise upon this putrid rushing defence.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Sterling Shepard to score anytime at 3/1 (General)
Sterling Shepard is slated to return for his first game since Week 8. The Giants wide receiver has played 73% of his snaps from the slot and faces the worst defense in the league against slot receivers.
Miami has surrendered the most targets, receptions and yards to slot receivers, providing a favourable match-up for Shepard.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones being out may worry some – but he’s been anything but prolific this season. Back-up Mike Glennon will likely lean on Shepard as a safety blanket in the slot. Back Shepard in a plus match-up.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: NFL Red Zone on Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: James O’Shaughnessy to score anytime at 11/2 (bet365)
As starting tight end, James O’Shaughnessy returned from IR, Dan Arnold took his place. This has left a bounty of snaps and targets all going O’Shaughnessy’s way.
In his first two games of the season, O'Shaughnessy averaged a 14% target share, and figures to see the same role going forwards. He faces a Rams D who have been porous to tighr ends, ranking as the 10th worst to the position. Back O’Shaughnessy at this huge price.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: CJ Uzomah to score anytime at 3/1 (Unibet/Boyle Sports)
While they’re solid against wide receivers, the Los Angeles Chargers are statistically the worst team in the league to tight ends.
They’ve conceded ten touchdowns to the position through 11 games and face the Bengals in what poses to be a high scoring affair.
CJ Uzomah has seen a 10% target share on the season, primarily serving as a safety blanket to quarterback Joe Burrow. Given the matchup, the Bengals will exploit the Chargers’ weakness and utilise Uzomah’s route tree – his price is far too high for the defense he faces.
Odds correct at 1945 GMT (03/12/21)
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