NFL betting tips: AFC Divisional Round preview and best bets

NFL betting tips: AFC Divisional Round

2pts Derrick Henry Over 96.5 Rushing Yards at 10/11 (General)

1pt Derrick Henry 150+ Rushing Yards at 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Texans @ Chiefs – Over 41.5 Total Match Points at 10/11 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

• Sunday, 2330 GMT - live on Sky Sports

We won last week when the bookmakers gave us the gift of setting Derrick Henry’s rushing yardage line at 99.5. He ended up rushing for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

This week? It’s 96.5.

Honestly, I feel like I could end the column there, but I’ll delve a little deeper...

We’ll start with the counter-arguments:

It’s the AFC Divisional Round, this clash between the Ravens and Bills is easily the biggest game of the NFL season so far and Buffalo – obviously – are no mugs defensively. They’re one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl for a reason.

That’s the end of the counter-arguments. They’re pretty flimsy to say the least.

The future Hall of Famer has (comfortably) cleared 100+ yards in four straight games and his 186-yard display last week was the pick of the bunch. The Pittsburgh Steelers knew that he was coming and knew what he’d attempt to do. They just simply couldn’t stop it happening.

And just for the record, the Steelers are statistically better against the run than Buffalo. The Bills allow more yards per carry, more yards per game and they’ve allowed an 87-yard run this season, beating Pittsburgh’s longest allowed rush of 83 yards.

Since the season began in the first week of September, Henry has carried the ball 20+ times in nine games. In each of those games, he’s ran for over 100 yards.

Henry is as close to a given as exists in the NFL’s running back ranks. His ability to regularly and consistently turn carries into 5+ yard gains is matched only by Saquon Barkley of the Eagles and, naturally, Baltimore are utilising this incredible asset more and more down the stretch.

On December 15, they recharged Henry’s batteries somewhat as they visited the hapless Giants. Baltimore were favoured by 16.5 points, so Henry took on a lighter workload, recording 14 carries.

Since then, he’s seen the ball at least 20 times in each game and he’s simply dominated.

Weather conditions are anticipated to be wintery (to say the least) in Buffalo on Sunday night, so both teams will have even more reason to keep the ball out of the air as much as possible.

Henry is the key for Baltimore and – with the constant, lurking threat that Lamar Jackson himself poses at quarterback – there’s no doubt he’ll get his opportunities; we’ve seen in the past month that John Harbaugh will continue to call Henry’s number in order to get the results.

Not convinced yet?

Baltimore and Buffalo have already faced off once this season, albeit way back in week four.

Henry carried 24 times, scored a touchdown and rushed for 199 yards. That was his biggest yardage total of the season.

Henry to pick up 96.5 yards at 10/11 is simply far, far too good to turn down and – bar injury or unforeseen catastrophe – it’s tough to see a scenario in which he doesn’t make it.

The Baltimore superstar going for 150+ is also worth a sprinkle at a price. If he can break off one of his trademark marauding runs early, 9/2 will feel like a steal.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Saturday, 2130 GMT - live on Sky Sports

Divisional Weekend kicks off in the AFC with the Kansas City Chiefs – aiming for an historic third-straight Super Bowl victory – hosting the Houston Texans, who upset the Chargers in round one of the postseason.

You’ll be hard pressed finding anyone willing to put their money on the Texans winning this one, but the value in the outright market is light. Kansas City are 1/6 to win straight-up, and the handicap line is set at a healthy 8.5 points.

The problem is, as likely as KC are to progress to the AFC title game, they are not a great covering team. They certainly haven’t been this season, anyway.

With a dominant 15-2 record, the Chiefs were the #1 seed in the entire NFL heading into January; no team won as frequently as Andy Reid’s outfit in the regular season. However, the Chiefs’ record against the spread was only 7-10.

Eleven of the Chiefs’ 15 wins were by eight points or fewer, including their Week 16 win over the Texans, their opponents on Saturday evening.

With that in mind, we’ll swerve the handicap market and take on a line that we can back up with the underlying numbers.

The ‘total points’ line has been set at 41.5 – the lowest of the four Divisional Round games – and it instantly attracts me to the over.

First and foremost, 46 points were scored between these two in their match-up less than a month ago, but there’s more to it than that.

Based on regular-season scoring, these two teams are good for a combined 44.5 points per game. Their defensive prowess has to be considered of course – particularly as KC allowed the fourth-fewest points in the NFL this season – but, even so, the numbers work out.

If you also bake in the combined ‘points allowed per game’ totals from both teams this season (41.1) and take an average, the magic number comes out at 42.8.

We also have to consider that this is the playoffs, and playoff teams are a different beast.

In 2023, Kansas City averaged a relatively measly (by their standards) 21.8 points per game in the regular season. When they arrived at the postseason, that number jumped up to 23.8.

Houston’s underlying numbers shot up even more dramatically in 2023, rising from 22.2 points per game to 27.5 when knockout football came around.

And just last week, we had further evidence as Houston scored 32 points against a Los Angeles defence that allowed the fewest points in the NFL regular season. This was significantly more than the Texans’ seasonal average of 21.9.

Houston’s defence has been sufficient at strangling offences at times this season, but that won’t happen against the most talented quarterback in the league and his championship-laden offence. C.J. Stroud and his Texans will undoubtedly be put under scoring pressure at Arrowhead Stadium and there’s no scenario in which Houston win without being aggressive with the ball.

I love the over in this game. Let’s get the weekend off to a flying start.

• CLICK HERE to back over 41.5 points with Sky Bet

Posted at 1415 GMT on 18/01/25

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