Patrick Reed is among our fancies for Friday's three-balls at the US Open, along with a wind-proven Englishman.
US Open betting tips: Second round three-balls
1pt trixie Matthew Jordan (evens), Patrick Reed (5/4) and Rickie Fowler (13/8) (bet365)
Thursday was an almost day, a frustrating day, for these pages. For so long it appeared that Rory McIlroy might end it in front, but a bogey-bogey finish was compounded by the better conditions which greeted the later starters. Then, among them, Xander Schauffele's dream start turned into a bit of a nightmare. He was two-under through four and smashed a near 400-yard drive down the fairway at the par-five fifth, but failed to birdie that or any of the next nine holes and fell to two-over.
Having most selections on the wrong side of the draw, across outright and specials previews, is just one of those things. As late as Thursday morning, nobody appeared to have any real clue what sort of tee-time would be preferable, but a clear advantage had emerged by the end of the day. It's only just over a stroke for now but, should conditions be favourable on Friday morning, could conceivably widen by a significant amount.
The other striking thing about the leaderboard is that we have winners of the 2011, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 US Opens under par, seven of the top 17 players all told. At this very early stage, the prospects of a first-time major champion, or indeed a first-time US Open champion, may well rest on the shoulders of Ludvig Aberg. Much will depend on just how volatile this course is allowed to become.
There's certainly a sense, captured when a USGA official told the Golf Channel that they are 'scared of Saturday', that organisers don't want to do anything perceived to be stupid; to become part of the narrative in the way they were in 2018. That's understandable but may mean a significant shift from what we've come to expect not just of this championship, but of this golf course, one where only three players in history have broken par over 72 holes.
With the wind from here no longer forecast to be horrendous, it'll come down to whether the USGA are willing or able to overcome that fear, cut the greens a little shorter, and give Shinnecock the things it needs to be able to fight back. In turn, that will shape the way the tournament unfolds. More of what we saw on Thursday and it seems likely more players will break par here than ever before – and that Thursday's tee-times play a significant part in the outcome.
Onto the three-balls and with the afternoon starters still to finish, focus must be on those out later. Hopefully, the morning finishes with a welcome winner as Matt Fitzpatrick leads his three-ball and Robert MacIntyre is tied with four to play, those two having been selected to form a 9/2 double.
We'll kick off by sticking with PATRICK REED, who was the successful leg of the other advised double. There's nothing complex here: Reed's head-to-head lead over Kurt Kitayama in US Open rounds was extended to 7-0-0 on Thursday and that's despite a couple of late mistakes from the former Masters champion.
He might be a little sharper for his first round in a month but may not need to be, as Kitayama's short-game holds him back enormously. That was the case in another poor round in this championship, where his own run of missed cuts looks like going from four to five. Andrew Novak meanwhile couldn't match Reed despite being exceptional on and around the greens, which based on past evidence is not likely to last.
More firms have priced up some of the smaller matches now so we can take the evens about MATTHEW JORDAN beating Alejandro Tosti and Chase Kyes.
Remarkably, hothead Tosti was the single best driver in the field yet the single worst iron player. That rather sums up the enigmatic Argentinian and he doesn't have the game or the temperament for this, hence an opening 78 he'll likely follow with something similar. His hyper-aggressive style could conceivably lead to a run at making the cut but more likely is his recklessness, compounded by that cut line, hurts him badly.
Kyes ranked only three places higher in iron play, the most fundamental part of the game, so Jordan may again have a low bar to clear. The two-time Open contender coped well in the wind on day one, his irons very good, and to be honest the way he's been hitting it lately his results ought to have been much better. We saw some welcome putting improvements here and that bodes well for the summer ahead.
For now, 75 would seem a good number in this three-ball so let's back him to do the job.
In Thursday's preview I mentioned that a double on Filippo Celli and Dylan Wu should be considered for those able to get on and it should've won, except Celli three-putted the final hole to fall into a tie with JB Holmes. He's a fraction shorter today and so is Wu, which combined means the value came and went.
Preference is for RICKIE FOWLER, who is a big price against Keegan Bradley and Daniel Berger.
Bradley has assumed favouritism here on account of having won this group on day one, but there wasn't much in it and I'd be encouraged by how Fowler played. This is a good course for him but there had to be question marks on arrival, as after a strong start to the season he'd missed successive cuts by big margins.
However, in ranking 10th in strokes-gained tee-to-green, Fowler proved his wellbeing and really ought to be favourite as a consequence. Prior to those two missed cuts, he'd gone 8-0 versus Bradley in their season-long head-to-head and it was 7-2 versus Berger, too. He's played much the best golf of this true, or had done until the wheels came off for a fortnight.
Those wheels are seemingly back on and as Berger's putting woes continue, and with Bradley no good thing to back up his solid start having never been the best wind player, Fowler is a strong fancy at the odds. He was on course to win this on day one until the par-five 15th saw him take seven. Had he done so he'd have been favourite to double up and one hole doesn't change the big picture in my eyes.
Posted at 05:40 BST on 19/06/26
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