Rory McIlroy can win his second US Open and deny Scottie Scheffler a career grand slam at Shinnecock. Read Ben Coley's preview.
- Scheffler bids for career grand slam at Shinnecock
- Course renowned for difficult and winner shot +1 in 2018
- McIlroy among key threats after second Masters win
- 33/1 Sky Bet special: Schauffele top 10, Hatton top 20, MacIntyre & McNealy top 40
Golf betting tips: US Open
4pts win Rory McIlroy at 14/1 (Betfair Exchange, 13/1 bet365)
3pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Tyrrell Hatton at 35/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 55/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Maverick McNealy at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Smith at 100/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
That the US Open returns to Shinnecock Hills Golf Club feels fitting in light of the way this season in men's professional golf has unravelled, and overdue based on the spectacle it provided eight long years ago.
This has been a year where golf and golf courses fight back; where Scottie Scheffler can't quite win, where surprise champions emerge with every passing Signature Event, and where the least fashionable golfer on the planet closed out the PGA Championship in much the same, decisive manner that Brooks Koepka did this one when last it was here. Even the signature moment, Rory McIlroy winning the Masters again, wasn't meant to happen. Even in doing so, McIlroy probably didn't come all that close to his very best.
It's been dizzying, almost chaotic were it not for the pace at which things happen in this game, and those words would aptly describe the last US Open this fine golf course held back in 2018. It had everything: Phil Mickelson's meltdown, Zach Johnson crying they've lost the golf course as though the golf course were not a golf course but a regiment under Custer's command; Saturday's morning draw bias, Sunday's afternoon charge, an apology from USGA chief Mike Davis and a tour de force from Koepka.
Shinnecock might not be the classical US Open venue those of a certain age associate with this championship, but 2018 was the embodiment of the experimentation era. Width of a kind, diabolical greens, unrelenting difficulty, quote upon quote upon quote and, in the end, a suitably great champion. Johnson said it was wrong to allow luck to determine the outcome, yet it seems curious that luck chose to land on the side of the greatest major golfer of the time, one of the greatest of the era, and not someone less deserving.
That truth extends beyond Koepka. Eleven players finished T10 or better and each was inside the world's top 50 – going by DataGolf rankings we have to expand that to the top 60, but eight of the 11 were inside their top 20. That's a very strong correlation between skill and performance and as the USGA will surely be keen to avoid a repeat of Saturday's drama, which they've put behind them since, we really ought to see the best version of this beautiful, fearsome place and a suitably strong cast.
It's often said that Oakmont is America's toughest golf course, but Shinnecock when the wind blows might have its number. Just three players have broken par here over 72 holes of US Open golf and Koepka wasn't one of them, his winning total one-over. McIlroy, who was six over through five holes of the tournament back then on a day when the average score topped 76.5 strokes, likes to set himself scoring targets. Might level par be the right one for this week?
Whenever we visit great courses only occasionally, even ones we know well, it's a challenge to know what exactly we should be looking for, never mind the winning score. So much has changed since 2004, when Retief Goosen overcame one of the most brutal final days in major championship history to cling on in four-under. There is very little we can draw from that, except to say that once more those left standing were elite golfers: Goosen an in-form world number nine and Mickelson the reigning Masters champion.
There are some comparisons to be drawn with Augusta, in fact. Wide fairways, notorious greens, a heightened emphasis on the approach shot and a demand for high-class chipping make it no surprise that many Shinnecock contenders have had a stab at the Masters too. The other major which ought to help is the Open and it's telling that 10 of the top 11 from 2018 have an Open top 10, the exception having been 12th.
Shinnecock is exposed and firm and its ninth hole is named Ben Nevis (though it's said the origins of the course can actually be traced back to France), meaning that sense of something somewhat Scottish is hard to escape. It's set to be windy, too, particularly over the first two days; this ought to encourage the USGA not to get too silly with green speeds, but should ensure the greens themselves are suitably bouncy. As they proved to be in 2018, the Opens, this one and the other one, could be the best guide of all.
Unlike the Open, the US Open can sometimes be simplified as a battle of the long drivers and that for me is the biggest conundrum. These fairways are undeniably wide and the course, at 7,400 yards, is longer than average. Eight holes stretch beyond 475 yards and there's a 252-yard par-three which will favour those who can hit it highest. Koepka first, Johnson third, Tony Finau fifth is in itself compelling. Yet the firmness, the sense of playing positional golf at times, means this should be more nuanced than has often been the case.
However the course plays, the big three look strong and among them it's RORY MCILROY I'm drawn to.
Scottie Scheffler's iron play and short-game class make this a seemingly good fit and I wouldn't dwell too much on him being a step below his best, because he's been runner-up three times since he won in January. That said, he's missed the top 10 five times in six months versus five times in just about two years prior 2026, and there's the additional uncertainty of this being his first crack at the career grand slam.
Jon Rahm is harder to ignore as his iron play has been electric lately and he's a wonderful chipper. I like the fact he's quickly dismissed the idea that he might involve himself in LIV Golf's survival bid and while he followed second place in the PGA Championship with an underwhelming performance in Korea next time, he then went through the gears nicely to be runner-up again at Valderrama.
But I find myself wondering why McIlroy shouldn't go ahead and win his second US Open some 15 years after the first, because, sort of quietly (save for, you know, winning the Masters), he's been very good this year. The simplest way to explain how good is to say that as well as the obvious – first at Augusta, seventh in the PGA – his full set of results when not putting badly so far in 2026 reads 3-2-1-7.
That does tell you he's had a few too many off weeks with the putter but it looked better as he closed out the Memorial in style, and if we're looking for an experienced, world-class, proven major player with form under links conditions, in the wind, and at Augusta, there may be nobody better than the modern version of a player who once preferred things soft and calm.
Some will be concerned with what happened eight years ago, but I'm not. McIlroy shot 80-70, his chance gone by the end of day one, but at the time remember he was under immense scrutiny both in this major and majors as a collective. That he'd gone four years without one was part of it but in April that year he'd had his first real chance to complete the career slam and squandered it. Coming to Shinnecock, he had also developed a problem with the US Open, missing his previous two cuts. The hat-trick wasn't a massive shock.
That McIlroy played so well on Friday shows he can score here and I do wonder a little if he might realise that playing conservatively, as he did then, isn't the way to go. McIlroy has always been more effective as the aggressor even if he has worked to limit the mistakes and I feel he'll be bang up for a second crack at a course he holds in such high regard, the kind of 'cathedral' where he's just that little bit more engaged.
And since 2018, he has very much cracked the US Open. Form figures of 9-8-7-5-2-2-19 are exceptional and he might've won twice but for getting in his own way, which should no longer be an issue. We didn't see McIlroy play with the freedom many expected after he finally won the Masters last year, his mental sharpness lacking at Oakmont and elsewhere, but we saw something more like it at Aronimink where he started so poorly but still looked the winner for a time on Sunday.
McIlroy gave Aaron Rai a four-shot start in round one and lost by five so it was a big effort which could've been different had he not made a mess of the driveable 13th on Sunday as well as both par-fives. Those scoring holes, his bread and butter, added to the sense of what might have been, but also to my belief that he's going to be so very dangerous in major championships in the coming years. He was before, but two wins in six since last April may be the start of a special final chapter.
On a more weights-and-measures level I love the fact that McIlroy's iron play looks robust right now and that he's so very good around the green, but there's another, more speculative angle that interests me. It was here in New York that McIlroy and his family suffered horrendous abuse in last year's Ryder Cup and while you could argue that such crowd behaviour may get to him, with the confidence of another major having been tucked away since, more likely in my view is that he sticks it to them.
We'll see about that but the bottom line here is that at a golf course to suit, with no calendar grand slam pressure to contend with, McIlroy has to be by some distance the biggest threat to Scheffler. In the here and now he maybe even has less to prove and at double-figure prices, he rates my idea of the winner.
You can't leave out Hatton
I sided with Tommy Fleetwood back in the depths of winter at 28/1 and he's about 10 points shorter with the extra places now on offer, having contended on each of his last two starts. Runner-up here and with top-fives at Erin Hills and LA Country Club, his prospects appear rock-solid but 18/1 for the win part of the bet can be called no more than fair. Perhaps he'll feature in my specials preview later this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick's chance is obvious as he arrives here at the top of his game, the putter firing again in Canada after a brief lull, but my idea of the best value among the English players bidding to follow up Rai's win is TYRRELL HATTON.
For so much of last year's US Open it looked like Hatton might bag his first major and that's now two top-10s in a row in this event, along with third place in the Masters back in the spring, his best so far at Augusta. Two top-10s and a trio of top-20s in the Open mean he has those key form lines covered, and he was sixth here for good measure.
Back then, it's worth noting that Hatton's form from the Masters onwards read 44-MC-42-MC-MC-MC yet he came here and played really nicely, yes taking advantage of an early-ish Saturday tee-time but backing it up with a final-round 69. It was an excellent performance built largely around a quality short-game which showed that he can handle these fearsome greens and their surrounds.
Tyrrell Hatton since becoming a father:
— Underdog Golf (@UnderdogGolf) June 7, 2026
1 start
1 wire-to-wire victory at Valderramapic.twitter.com/oDtEkMmvwH
Returning now far more accomplished (he was still a few months short of his Ryder Cup debut in Paris), Hatton won at Valderrama last time out, his first start since missing the cut in the PGA. LIV's means of preparing its players for majors has often come under fire and rightly so, but while Valderrama is in many ways very different to this, it is at least really difficult, demanding quality approaches and scrambling and de-emphasising the need for top-class driving.
I'm not sure where driving fits into this puzzle but approach play and work around the green are Hatton's bread and butter, and he leaned upon both together with his best putting display in a good while when winning nicely from Rahm, with a couple of course specialists next.
The reason Hatton had missed the event in Korea was the birth of his first child so we've a potential nappy-factor angle, though I doubt we'll see a reformed character out on the golf course. Still, he's only half joking when he says tough courses like Shinnecock drive everyone mad so his demeanour is less of an issue and let's not forget, for all the bluster, his career-best PGA Tour win came under brutally demanding conditions he coped with better than anyone else.
How that new-dad bump goes we'll see but there's something more tangible to do with his recent win that I really like, and it's how he's followed them in the past. With the most recent listed first, his results immediately after a victory read 2-6-3-22-3-3-46-1-9, which is seven top-10s in nine, a win, a second, and three third-place finishes. That's quite the record and suggests he hasn't peaked too soon – far from it in fact.
Everything seems to have come together nicely for Hatton and as so many major champions had recently threatened, the fact he's done so twice in his last four is another enormous positive. I like his chances each-way.
Russell Henley's solid US Open record and contending performance at Augusta earned him a place on the shortlist too and he fared pretty well here back in 2018, when he didn't hole much. He's a winner two starts ago on a tough par 70 and his recent US Open record, which reads 13-MC-14-7-10, has been built across a variety of set-ups, several of them favouring the long driving he simply doesn't have in his locker.
So much depends on how this plays as to how much of a threat Henley can be. It's no coincidence that his worst driving performances recently came at Riviera and Doral, and if he's on the back foot here it'll be a slog. However, he was 35th in strokes-gained off-the-tee in 2018 and managed to gain strokes at a wide-open LACC and at Pinehurst. If he can do that again then why shouldn't he contend?
Ultimately I've come down on the side of him being just that bit too short off the tee and will instead head back up the betting to rely on XANDER SCHAUFFELE delivering in this as he has done every time he's played in the US Open.
Schauffele has a remarkable seven top-10s in nine and when he's not met that bar, he's been 14th and 12th, always excelling from tee-to-green and generally putting well too. One of those top-10 finishes came as a qualifier in 2017 and then he was sixth here the following year, despite having missed his previous two cuts coming in.
Subsequently an Open winner at Troon, which threw up something of a correlation with Shinnecock back in 2018 thanks to Hatton, Finau, Henrik Stenson, both Johnsons and Patrick Reed, Schauffele appears to have most boxes ticked and having sided with him at about 16/1 for the Masters and seen him finish inside the top 10 there and then again at the PGA Championship, I see no reason not to return to him.
It was good to see Schauffele's work around the green fire at the Memorial Tournament last time, one in which he has a solid but unspectacular record, and really it's the putter that leaves us with something to worry about. That club cost him any chance of getting involved at Augusta, where his long-game was excellent, and it was what kept him away from the leaders last time out.
However, equally true is that he putted as well as he has since winning his two majors when seventh at Aronimink and on balance I trust him to deliver when he needs to. I prefer him to the other antepost pick, Cameron Young, as the best of the Americans beyond Scheffler. Truth be told while happy to have 50/1 about Young, his form has cooled and I'm worried about his work around the green. He makes no appeal at all at 20s.
Given the wind in the forecast I am drawn to many of the names we'd associate with an Open Championship, including Shane Lowry. His record in this is a mixed bag but top-20s in 2023 and 2024 offer some hope and his iron play has come back around. The issue I have is that to win a US Open here likely requires holing out well from 5-10 feet and I simply don't think he will manage to do so over the course of four days.
ROBERT MACINTYRE might, however, and at the same sort of price is preferred.
It's been an up-and-down year for the Scot, who has had to adjust to being a dad. Given that we know how much he loves being at home in Oban, having a baby there while he's travelling the USA was always going to be a challenge and by his own admission, MacIntyre's form reflects how difficult he's found it at times.
Despite that, he was right in the thick of things in The Players Championship when fourth and followed that with second place in the Texas Open, always played under tricky conditions and won in fact by Spaun for a second time. MacIntyre of course was sat in the Oakmont clubhouse having set the target when Spaun holed a monster putt to capture the US Open last year.
That might've been MacIntyre's first notable US Open performance, but he has in fact hit the ball really well in all four appearances, gaining strokes both off the tee and with his approaches in each of them. All it took was for the putter to behave itself, which it did 12 months ago, and suddenly there he was in the mix down the stretch.
🇺🇸 vs 🏴
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) May 8, 2026
We put Robert MacIntyre to the test to see which country prevails. 👇 pic.twitter.com/FnjRwVUAad
Winner of the Italian, Canadian and Scottish Opens plus the Dunhill Links last year, MacIntyre has an impressive CV now and the next step for him is to capture a major championship. Understandably, many will expect his best chances to come back home in the UK and Ireland but this looks a suitable test too and I'd note that he's twice the price he was for the Masters back in the spring.
That reflects his downturn since, but there was enough to take from his performance back in Canada last week to take our chances. Crucially, a player who has driven it well all year and whose putting remains solid started to hit his irons better at last. Something similar happened at Sawgrass, his approach play coming back into form out of nothing, and he took another big step up the following week to almost win in Texas.
Hopefully, MacIntyre can repeat that here and having led the field in scrambling last week, I'm happy with the state of his game otherwise. Plus, while his around the green numbers aren't of the very highest standard, for me that reflects often having to hack it out of thick, greenside rough. Give him a wedge and a tight lie and some options to choose from and, like Lowry, MacIntyre really begins to shine.
With a couple of Open top-10s to his name plus two links wins in his native Scotland, a solid couple of performances at Augusta too and that near miss at Oakmont a year ago, MacIntyre has plenty in his favour. Last week's return to form came just in time.
Short-game maestros worth chancing
Reed's form in majors (12-10) this year suggests he's managing fine without playing in-between, but then again maybe the thing that's kept him from properly contending is a lack of preparation. He hasn't played any competitive golf elsewhere since the very beginning of March, more than three months ago, which is a worry I just can't shake despite his excellent top-five here, his best in the US Open to date.
Justin Thomas made more appeal at the same price and having been on him for his last two starts, he's the one who would frustrate me most in winning. Thomas's strengths at his best are his approach play and his chipping and pitching so this could be a good venue for him, and he fared well enough in 2018 having contended at Erin Hills the previous year. His more recent record, however, is nothing short of abysmal.
Instead then I'll take MAVERICK MCNEALY and hope that, like Wyndham Clark (2023) and Spaun (2025), he can win the US Open despite having picked up just one PGA Tour title to date.
Once the best amateur in the world, it took McNealy a while to deliver on that potential but since capturing the RSM Classic late in 2024, he's been something of a fixture in deep PGA Tour fields. All told he's played 40 times subsequently and boasts a one-in-four top-10 rate despite largely keeping top-class company, and I feel he's still improving.
This year hasn't been spectacular by any means, but he's been 10th in the Farmers, 10th in the Memorial, 13th in the Arnold Palmer and in Phoenix, and inside the top 20 in both majors. It is nothing if not solid, reliable form and it's borderline high-class, which is why he features inside DataGolf's top 20 at number 14, just in front of Collin Morikawa, just behind Spaun, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay.
Thirteen top-40s in 14 starts shows that he's picking up credit with his consistency but, just recently, McNealy has threatened to take another step up. He was the halfway leader in the PGA Championship first of all, then stuck around close to the lead all week in the Memorial Tournament, finishing 10th thanks to an electric short-game and quality approach play.
Having ranked 10th for greens hit in each of these two events his iron play, which underpinned his rise from the fringes of the Tour to its top table, seems to have turned a corner. His weakness then is what he does off the tee and on that, I am hoping these generous fairways prove suitable. McNealy spends a lot of time playing from the rough; my sense is he can do some damage at a course where fairways are easier to find.
With one of the best short-games in the field there's plenty to like and while I'd have my doubts as to whether he can see it through, that experience at Aronimink can only help. McNealy has always had world-class potential so let's back him to show it this week, having built up a quietly strong record in majors over the past couple of seasons, one aligned to his overall rise in stature.
Finally, CAMERON SMITH is big enough in the betting to chance.
Smith has generally regressed since joining LIV Golf right on the heels of his Open win four summers ago, at times no doubt suffering for a lighter schedule and his own admission that golf just hasn't been everything to him.
How much having a child changed that I don't know but his determination to return to the game's elite has been clear for many months, a recent coaching switch only serving to underline it. Smith said the call to longstanding swing coach Grant Field was one of the hardest he's had to make as he brought in Claude Harmon, who helped Koepka to so much of his success.
The results have been undeniable. Smith was a decent if unspectacular 26th on his first start since making the change, then made a Sunday charge to finish seventh in the PGA Championship, ending a run of six major missed cuts in style. He's backed it up, too, first contending in Korea and then taking another step forward at Valderrama, where he was inside the top five all week.
LIV Golf is not deep in terms of field strength, but he was close up behind two course specialists plus Rahm and Hatton, and Smith therefore ought to arrive back in the US feeling like his old self again. That old self was good enough to win The Players and then an Open Championship, having first shown the world what he could do when afforded some space off the tee when fourth in this at Chambers Bay a few years earlier.
It's not a coincidence that Smith struggled on some of the more traditional US Open set-ups with their pinched-in fairways, but he was competitive again when fourth at LACC three summers ago. Fleetwood hit 85% of fairways here in 2018 and the field average of 70% represents a stark contrast to Torrey Pines (2021), Brookline (2022) and Oakmont (2024), all of which were just above 50. It's even higher than LACC at 65%.
Smith's driver is still a concern but he's improved his numbers with every start since work began with Harmon and with his irons firing again, his short-game as reliable as ever and seventh in the PGA the jolt of confidence he needed, 80/1 and upwards is hard to resist. Playing from the fairway, in the wind, with emphasis on shots two and three, he can be a big factor here if picking up where he left off last time.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 15/06/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
