Ben Coley has two 9/2 doubles to consider for day one of what promises to be a memorable US Open at Shinnecock Hills.
- 33/1 Sky Bet special: Schauffele top 10, Hatton top 20, MacIntyre & McNealy top 40
- 20/1 Sky Bet special: Taylor top Canadian, Niemann top South American, Harrington make cut
US Open betting tips: First round three-balls
1pt double Patrick Reed and Alex Fitzpatrick at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt double Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre at 9/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt four-fold Reed, Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, MacIntyre at 27/1 (General)
For those who enjoy betting on three-balls, there's no denying that the evolution of the betting landscape has taken away opportunities in recent years. By that I'm saying that there are fewer specialist golf odds compilers and therefore fewer firms willing to chalk up the complete set, and that often means I'm mentioning options which I can't recommend in good faith. The idea is that most readers can follow the advice.
However, while anything not offered by three or more major bookmakers will be left out of staking plans, rather than bury away the information within a big chunk of text which I'm told isn't very 2026, I'll include those matches for those who may be interested. We begin, however, with one of the big (in every sense) groups of the morning.
Young to beat Koepka and Gotterup (1230 BST)
This is a fantastic three-ball made up of a five-time major champion, a many-times major contender, and one of the most prolific PGA Tour winners of the last couple of seasons. All three give the ball a mighty whack and there are strong local ties: Brooks Koepka returns to the scene of his 2018 win, Cameron Young is from New York, and Chris Gotterup was raised in New Jersey.
Any one of them could win this but just as Koepka looked to have found something with the putter, a hand injury forced his withdrawal from the Canadian Open. In a series of messages to GolfWeek's Eamon Lynch, Koepka confirmed he'd had scans but hadn't been able to properly diagnose an issue which stopped him from practising on Monday. He also said he's going to play regardless.
Young, who boasts such an excellent record in majors, was tempting as a result. He had another great chance to win one in the Masters, played well in the PGA, and showed his first signs of US Open form at Oakmont last year. That was before he'd won on the PGA Tour and between his first win in August and his third at Sawgrass in March, he was the best US player in the Ryder Cup here in New York.
I do have some doubts as to whether his short-game will hold up over four days, and the extent to which he can put his driving to use, but those concerns are even more serious where Gotterup is concerned. Chipping looks to be his weakness and while he does like to play in the wind, this is very different to the Scottish Open he captured last year and more severe than the Open which followed it and saw him share third.
Also of note is that Gotterup has become a bit of a slow starter. In each of his five starts since the Masters, all bar one in small fields, he's ended the first round outside the top 40 and with virtually no chance to win. No doubt he'll be doubly keen to put that right here but that's easier said than done.
But having thought long and hard about this one, the truth is that if all three were fit, I'd be keenest on Koepka. Rather than gamble on his health in either direction, we'll move on to more appealing options.
Reed to beat Kitayama and Novak (1252)
PATRICK REED has finished 12th and 10th in the first two majors of the year and, having been fourth at Shinnecock in 2018, he returns as a viable winner. I do have some concerns over his preparation, as the majors are the only two events he's played in the last three months, but while perhaps that might cost him in the end he's been starting well and can boss this three-ball.
Andrew Novak played nicely enough at the PGA Championship but still finished a good way behind Reed. Crucially, his short-game has been problematic this year and the same shots which would ignite Reed's creativity are more like to expose his weakness.
Kurt Kitayama also struggles in that department and can never be relied upon with putter in hand, so while he does have some form in the wind at a lower level, he's one I'm happy taking on. Kitayama is more accurate now than he has been at times in the past but still has a big wide in him and his scrambling skills may not bail him out often enough.
Reed's will and his record in this, while unspectacular, is a level up on the other two. Indeed Kitayama is yet to make a US Open cut and in the six rounds both he and Reed have played, the latter has shot the lowest score each time, by an average of 3.5 strokes. More of the same please.
Fitzpatrick to beat Kim and James (1325)
Ben James made his professional debut in Canada last week and for 36 holes, it was a dream. But having led at halfway he faded to 54th in the end, Saturday's round particularly poor, and while he showcased his strong long-game he looked like he has plenty of improving to do on and around the green.
ALEX FITZPATRICK might be one of the very best in this field in that regard and his form has been excellent since he captured the Indian Open, then earned a PGA Tour card by winning the Zurich Classic alongside his US Open-winning brother. All parts of his game are sharp and 20th place in the Canadian Open was yet more evidence of the level he's reached, with more still to come.
Tom Kim did finish ahead of Fitzpatrick there and there have been some quiet signs of recovery from the one-time prodigy, but he'd finished outside the top 50 in both previous starts and still seems short of his best. He does have a good US Open record but his off-the-tee accuracy won't matter much in this one and Fitzpatrick's body of work in 2026 is far stronger.
Celli to beat Holmes and Ormond (1336)
This is a three-ball which very few firms will price up and I understand why. There's a significant lack of tour-level form to give us a clear sense of what to expect, with former major contender JB Holmes having played one PGA Tour event since 2024 and amateur Jackson Ormond still finding his way in the game.
However, Ormond shot 70-81 on the Korn Ferry Tour recently and Holmes hasn't been a factor in five years or more, so I do think Filippo Celli could be of some interest at odds-against. The Italian isn't pulling up any trees in his second DP World Tour season but finished inside the top 20 two starts ago and had started well enough before withdrawing in the Netherlands.
Quite why he pulled out I've been unable to uncover and that does raise some doubts, but having played well as an amateur in the Open four years ago and started to improve recently, he should win this if fit and healthy.
Wu to beat Holtz and Oiwa (1336)
Another low-key group rounds off the early wave for me and it's one Dylan Wu can win. He has a sneaky US Open record having finished 31st and 32nd in the two he's played so far, and both were courtesy of the top-class short-game skills which will be needed at Shinnecock.
His putter has to be a worry but his iron play has been excellent recently and while 45th in Canada last week isn't much, it's more than the other two have managed. Ryuichi Oiwa qualified in style but has been below last year's form out in Japan, while Brandon Holtz beat just two players home at Augusta where rounds of 81-78 confirm that he's a long way short of this level.
Wu is too but not to anything like the same extent and if he can break 80 that could do. The double with Celli pays 11/4 with BOYLE Sports and just a fraction short of 5/2 with bet365. William Hill are just a shade bigger than 2/1.
Fitzpatrick to beat Hovland and DeChambeau (1825)
I generally try to avoid the strongest three-balls as they're made up of world-class golfers who on any given day can make any predictions look silly, but this does look like good timing for MATT FITZPATRICK and he can dominate.
Fitzpatrick found form with his putter in Canada last week and has enjoyed an exceptional season so far, winning three times since missing a golden opportunity to capture The Players. He looks more assured than ever and spoke glowingly about the course on Monday, making clear that he's not only ready for a firm, breezy test, but that he hopes Shinnecock is presented similarly to 2018.
He played well in that renewal before bagging the US Open four years later and a double is perfectly possible, with his short-game and approach play both improved. More of the same on the greens and it'll be no surprise if he's bang there on Sunday.
I wouldn't go as far to say it would surprise me were Bryson DeChambeau or Viktor Hovland in the mix too, but both have serious questions to answer as to their respective short-games. DeChambeau's has ruined both majors so far this year as he's lost about two strokes per round in missing cuts at Augusta and Aronimink, and Shinnecock could expose him in much the same way.
Hovland's short-game was good in the PGA and there have been some signs of improvement, but this is an altogether different test, one of creativity and execution from tight lies. I expect that'll reveal that his chipping remains a big weakness so while his approach play is right up there with the best in the world, there are reasons to believe this isn't the right golf course for him.
Fitzpatrick leads the head-to-head 8-2 this year and can widen the gap.
Henley to beat Griffin and Gerard (1836)
There are two golfers who I'd rather not see win this week, for purely selfish reasons. One is Justin Thomas, a favourite of mine and a good fit for this on paper; the other is Russell Henley, who I expect to play well without winning on account of the fact he's just not long enough off the tee.
We'll see how much of a hindrance that is over 72 holes but the recent Colonial winner might just get off to a strong start, as he often does in the US Open. Henley led here in 2018 then led again on his next appearance three years later, while top-10s in 2024 and 2025 both came on the back of solid opening rounds.
More of the same could be enough to beat Ben Griffin, who had been riding a hot putter and missed the cut as soon as it cooled, and Ryan Gerard, whose chipping is among the worst on the PGA Tour. Of course, in a single round he might only need to chip a couple of times if he's at his best from tee-to-green, but when he does big numbers are very much possible.
Gerard has lost strokes around the green eight times in a row now and in 13 of his last 14 appearances, so it's a big handicap which will be exposed at some stage by Shinnecock. I just wonder whether Henley's lack of power might be a handicap too and will swerve this one on balance.
MacIntyre to beat Hojgaard and Echavarria (1858)
Finally, ROBERT MACINTYRE has plenty in his favour if he can build on signs of encouragement in Canada last week.
MacIntyre has struggled to adjust to life as a work-away-from-home dad this year but still almost won The Players and then finished second in the Texas Open the following week. After a lull, he was back hitting the ball well in Toronto and as a two-time winner in Scotland who was runner-up at Oakmont last year, he should be raring to go now.
For my money, MacIntyre is one of the best in the game with a wedge, a tight lie and some options to choose from and I can see him falling in love with Shinnecock, which he visited on a scouting trip late last year.
Nicolai Hojgaard's form has tailed off since he finished second at Quail Hollow, with 44th in the PGA followed by two missed cuts, both by wide margins. His driver has been poor lately and his short-game isn't as good as MacIntyre's. Nor does he have comparable form in majors and while he'll get there, I don't think this is the right set-up for him.
Nor is it for Nico Echavarria, whose chipping isn't great. He has no form as yet in majors and missed the cut by miles in the PGA, just as he had in the Masters. All told he's 23 over-par for four rounds at the highest level this year, his run of major missed cuts now standing at four, and I'm very happy opposing him.
Posted at 20:30 BST on 16/06/26
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