Tommy Fleetwood looks set for a big week on his return to Shinnecock Hills for the US Open, where Ben Coley is also spying big odds about a veteran major champion.
Golf betting tips: US Open specials
2pts Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top five (ties included) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Nick Taylor top Canadian, Joaquin Niemann top South American at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Padraig Harrington to finish in the top 20 at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Padraig Harrington to finish in the top 10 at 75/1 (Sky Bet)
- 20/1 Sky Bet special: Taylor top Canadian, Niemann top South American, Harrington make cut
TOMMY FLEETWOOD should be full of confidence entering the US Open at Shinnecock, the place he came closest to winning a major championship back in 2018.
Fleetwood's final-round 63 was a masterclass from off the pace but it ended on a sour note, as after hitting the shot of his life into the 18th green, he missed the putt. We will never know what effect another birdie would've had on leader Brooks Koepka, but his winning score was one-over and Fleetwood, in the end, was just one behind.
My sense is Fleetwood might've won without a play-off had he made it, or at the very least would've taken Koepka to extra holes, and you do wonder whether one so early in his career might've led to another. As it is, he's among the very best players in the game seeking to become a first-time major champion, which of late this championship has a habit of unearthing.
Anyway, his game is a great fit for the test ahead as his key strengths are his approach play and his short-game. As he's driving it well and has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts, and has conditions seemingly to suit with wind sure to play its part from the very beginning of the tournament, there is so much in his favour and no wonder he's popular at about 18/1.
Having advised Fleetwood at 28/1 antepost, I'd rather top that up with either a top-10 or TOP-FIVE FINISH bet and have opted for the latter. You can take 5/1 with Sky Bet, 9/2 generally, or go for the former's 4/1 but with ties paid in full. Given the strong chance of some kind of deduction if he's fourth or fifth, that seems the best approach.
Fleetwood has three top-10s in the US Open but all of them were top-fives and it's striking how good he is at maximising his good weeks. OK, some would argue he hasn't done that in terms of top-level silverware, but Fleetwood has an exceptional 34% top-five strike-rate dating back to the beginning of 2024 and that's just a fraction shy of Rory McIlroy.
Other players around Fleetwood in this second wave – Cam Young, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg – are all considerably below that return and this in my mind speaks to Fleetwood's hidden quality. He just does not stop grinding and in any high-level tournament played under difficult conditions, be that a major or a Signature Event on the PGA Tour, that's invaluable for backers in these markets.
He's a very fair 5/2 for a top 10 and I wouldn't put anyone off playing that too, but I'll aim higher and tap into that outstanding return. The odds imply a 20% chance and that's just about a reflection of his career top-five return in majors; Fleetwood though is a much better player now than he was when bagging the second of them right here at Shinnecock, and he can demonstrate that.
Believe it or not I also like the 25/1 being dangled about a top-20 finish for PADRAIG HARRINGTON. This is with dead-heat deductions in the event of a tie, or you can take 14s for a full payout even if he's tied for 20th.
Shinnecock is exposed to the elements and it's going to be windy throughout the first two rounds, and windy enough thereafter. That makes it comparable to an Open Championship and looking back at 2018, all of those in the mix have strong Open form, even the likes of Tony Finau and Daniel Berger who you might think would struggle under links conditions.
Harrington, a two-time Open champion, will benefit if this does play similarly and over the last five years he's demonstrated that he remains competitive at this level, with two top-20s in 13 majors, plus 22nd at Troon.
All three of these performances appear relevant, starting with the one he produced just last month when 18th at the PGA. There, Harrington's strengths were able to flourish and he ranked 11th in iron play and fourth around what were very complex greens, similar in some ways to the ones we have at Shinnecock.
Love it @padraig_h 🙌#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/bayYglLQM3
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) May 17, 2026
His 22nd at Troon was only two summers ago and serves as a reminder of his links smarts. He managed that while putting badly and ranked ninth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, so anyone backing him for a top-20 finish was hard done by. Troon, by the way, throws up some very strong ties with the 2018 US Open leaderboard.
Finally, there's his top-five finish at Kiawah Island in 2021. That was the year Phil Mickelson won, and Harrington contended along with Shane Lowry and Louis Oosthuizen. These are all Open champions and there were two more of those in the top 10 of a renewal played by the sea in blustery conditions.
Under the right circumstances, Harrington can still threaten the top of the leaderboard and while he did miss the cut in Canada last week, that was all down to his driver. Once more his approach play and short-game were good and if he can manage his misses, these wide fairways hopefully catching some of them, then I don't think another top-20 is beyond him.
Those less confident but still interested could try prices around the 9/4 mark that he makes the cut, 7/1 for a top-40 finish, or 10/1 for a top-30 finish. Much will depend on where you can or want to bet, but there's plenty of value around. Personally, I like the top 20 play but can't resist a smaller go at the top 10 market in the hope that the wind blows all week.
Taylor made for tricky test
In the top nationalities markets I was initially looking to take on Si Woo Kim and Min Woo Lee, who head the betting for the top rest of the world player. Kim has a bad majors record for a player of his calibre and his lone top-30 finish in this came under easier conditions back in 2017. Lee has a solid US Open record but at three very suitable courses and his approach play around here must rate a concern.
On the flip-side, both are outstanding around the green so while Cam Smith and Adam Scott made some appeal against them, I've decided to look elsewhere. The same goes for the top Australian market where these two can be dutched at evens or so against Lee and Jason Day, the latter badly out of sorts. Ultimately if you've doubts about an even-money chance then it's best to press on.
The two I do like are NICK TAYLOR to be the top Canadian and JOAQUIN NIEMANN to be the top South American and they can be doubled at 5/1 and bigger. Some firms won't allow this without a direct request, but plenty will and they are not related contingencies.
Taylor closed with a round of 64 in Canada on Sunday and contended for the PGA last month. He's had an aggravating run of throwing in a bad round but in general appears to be close to his best and is playing better in majors having made four cuts in six. That followed a run of nine missed cuts in a row so there's been clear improvement.
He was actually the leading amateur in a US Open not far from here a long time ago and I can see him playing well, as he's solid in the wind and his strengths are his approach play and his short-game. That makes for a likeable combination and as Aronimink's greens were so demanding, last month's PGA Championship should serve as a decent form guide for this.
As ever, the key to playing in these markets is perceived weakness elsewhere. Ben Silverman ought to struggle at this level just as he did on his sole previous major appearance. Corey Conners is badly out of sorts and if his long-game doesn't fire, which it hasn't been, his short-game isn't good enough to save him. Then there's Sudarshan Yellamaraju, excellent last week but at his home course under soft conditions. This is a completely different test.
I think experience and a good short-game will go a long way and Taylor holds all the aces there, so at 2/1 generally he looks rock-solid.
So does Niemann, who played nicely in the PGA Championship and has found form again lately. During his time on the PGA Tour he was often at his best in the northeastern states, something we saw again in Pennsylvania, and while his raw power may not help him that much this week, his ability to keep the ball low and shape it both ways certainly should.
If his short-game holds up the Chilean can be a factor and I'd certainly expect him to have enough about him to beat a poor batch of South Americans.
Emiliano Grillo's only strength right now is his accuracy off the tee, which isn't particularly relevant here. Nico Echavarria has done nothing in majors so far and while he can sometimes putt exceptionally well, he's not great with a wedge in hand. Alejandro Tosti will surely produce some big numbers, Marcelo Rozo's putting has been abysmal, and Mateo Pulcini shot 81-78 at Augusta.
There's really not much to beat and this is probably Niemann versus the course. At a shade of odds-against, I'll take Niemann to edge that battle. If he makes the cut that could well be more than enough.
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Posted at 13:05 BST on 16/06/26
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