After a 4/1 winning double on Friday, Ben Coley previews Saturday's third round at the Genesis Invitational.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational two-balls
2pt double Aberg and Morikawa to win their two-balls at 9/5 (General)
Friday began badly for these pages as Tony Finau double-bogeyed the final hole of the delayed first round, denying us a payout on Thursday's double, but it ended fabulously with both second-round selections comfortable winners – and Rory McIlroy having further strengthened his prospects of winning this title.
With conditions in his favour, McIlroy has been almost impeccable to this point. For most of the two rounds he's been excellent off the tee and hit approaches where he's wanted them to go. When this hasn't been the case, his short-game has kept him out of trouble, even when he's been greedy and made a tactical error such as at the 10th hole of round two.
The job is far from done and it's going to be interesting to see how much Riviera Country Club firms up as the tournament develops. There can be absolutely no doubt that his chances would benefit from the softness of the first two rounds but while that won't entirely disappear from fairways, these greens can firm up quickly. Should they, the challenge will be entirely different.
It goes without saying that McIlroy is equipped to overcome any marked change, especially if he continues to putt well, and it's hoped that he can end an immensely frustrating start to the year for this column.
There are two players in the mix for whom victory would be tough to swallow and one is co-leader Marco Penge. It's not so much that he was on the radar, more than he ought to have been. When your analysis is in effect 'this will be set up perfectly for the bombers' and the price about this rising star is 200/1, a cursory mention at least ought to have been the outcome.
But perhaps still more of a worry is the presence of Xander Schauffele, selected at 28/1 last week but left out here at a much shorter price, without having played to his full potential at Pebble Beach. It was a pretty dramatic cut which suggests we were on the right side of the argument last week. His performance at Riviera underlines that he is close to his best again and from two behind McIlroy, he's a big threat.
With Riviera specialist Adam Scott alongside Schauffele and in-form Jacob Bridgeman tied for the lead with Penge, it's going to be great viewing, another late night very much worthwhile. The leaders tee off at 19:45 GMT.
Best two-ball bets
Scanning the two-balls coupon the first thing that stood out was LUDVIG ABERG's price, with 5/6 to beat Patrick Rodgers looking a bit of a steal.
This simply looks the wrong number given Aberg's quality and while it's been a frustrating start to the year, the positives of the last two weeks suggest good things are coming. He defied a really bad start at Pebble Beach with some excellent golf over the final three rounds and that's been the case since a triple-bogey during the worst of the weather on Thursday, too.
Both Aberg and Rodgers have struggled a little off the tee but the Swede's ball-striking has been better and he's a class act, one or two levels above Rodgers. I'd make him shorter and he therefore has to make the staking plan.
Those looking for someone at odds-against should consider Sepp Straka, for whom firming conditions would be a positive, but taking on in-form Jake Knapp doesn't really appeal. Knapp will need to drive the ball better but that's perfectly plausible and as mentioned, the fairways are likely to remain receptive. That's in his favour in theory.
It's also in the favour of Jhonattan Vegas but I doubt it'll be enough to see him beat local star COLLIN MORIKAWA, who has backed up his win last week with more high-class approach play.
Vegas ranks last on Tour in that department but led the field on Thursday, yet that seems to have been a false dawn: he was 68th of 72 players yesterday and survived on a short-game which does not usually come to the rescue.
All the ingredients are in place for Vegas to struggle and with Morikawa very reliable, he looks the banker to my eye. He's odds-on but close to 2/1 about this double of Ryder Cup stars looks extremely good business, so we'll keep it nice and simple. Hopefully, the same is true of the outcome of the tournament.
Posted at 06:45 GMT on 21/02/26
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