Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational preview and best bets

• Riviera Country Club returns to the schedule
• Tiger Woods hosts at course he could never conquer
• World number one Scottie Scheffler 3/1 favourite

Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational

4pts win Rory McIlroy at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts e.w. Cameron Young 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1.5pts e.w. Ludvig Aberg at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Taylor Pendrith 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

0.5pt double McIlroy and Angel Ayora in the Kenya Open at 168/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

By modern standards, it isn't all that long on paper. Its rough isn't gnarly, its green are neither dramatically undulating nor small. There isn't a drop of water on the golf course and very few shots will be blasted out of bounds. Yet Riviera Country Club is revered as one of, if not the best course on the PGA Tour, and it's a wonderful tonic that it returns to the schedule after an enforced absence.

There are others better placed to explain its architectural qualities, which The Fried Egg's Garrett Morrison does in this video for those as interested in the how and why as they are the what. But for my money this really is the peak of the PGA Tour. In part that's because of my own fondness for California and the LA aesthetic, but more than that it's the golf course and a tournament which always delivers on its promise.

Riviera's list of champions says a lot about what's required. Long drivers do have an edge (the extension of holes four and 18 will only add to that), there's a heightened emphasis on sharp work around the greens, and approach play is key. If this reminds you of anything I wonder if it might be Augusta, and Hideki Matsuyama became the latest in a long line of players to collect both titles when triumphing here in 2024.

There is an additional factor this week and that's the weather. It's been very wet in Los Angeles this year and the rain on Monday was heavy. There's not that much more forecast but what's fallen already is enough and with cool temperatures, Riviera might play as long as it ever has. Given that hitting fairways doesn't matter nearly as much as being a long way down them, I wonder whether this will be a lopsided leaderboard.

That would make for a stark contrast with Pebble Beach. There, Collin Morikawa beat Sepp Straka and Min Woo Lee and while the latter is powerful, the other two are not. That course remains somewhat about precision and certainly takes driver out of a player's hands more often than Riviera, where ironically it's the opening par-five and the driveable par-four 10th which afford some the chance to hit less than that.

A better recent guide is Torrey Pines and once more, we have some strong correlations. Max Homa, Jon Rahm and Bubba Watson are recent winners at both, JB Holmes has almost done the double, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott and Matsuyama likewise. And when Matsuyama won this title, the two players in a share of second place were Luke List and Will Zalatoris, who two years earlier had battled it out for the Farmers title.

Regardless of all that, we know by now that world number one Scottie Scheffler will be hard to beat, especially if he can avoid another poor Thursday. But this might be the best chance for RORY MCILROY to take him down regardless and the world number two gets the headline vote.

• CLICK HERE to back McIlroy with Sky Bet

It's been a bit of a curious nine months or so since McIlroy won the career grand slam, his overall form patchy but more genuine career highlights coming from the way in which he won the Irish Open, and the away Ryder Cup win he again played such a key part in. Then came another Race to Dubai as he continues his pursuit of more history.

And it's history which will shape the rest of his career. McIlroy seems intent on doing things his own way, playing where he wants to and, whisper it, doing his bit to grow the game in places like India and Australia. As far as personal achievement goes, he's said it himself – there isn't much left, bar an Open at St Andrews or perhaps even Portrush.

Riviera, though, might not be far down the list. When he won at Pebble Beach last year he talked about 'cathedrals' and this is one of them. That it will be the one place Tiger Woods could never crack should only intensify McIlroy's desire to do so himself, and his journey to that is so far reminiscent of Augusta. He's been a factor here seven times in eight but hasn't yet found the missing piece of the puzzle.

One piece could in fact be two: the rain and the switch back to blades which precipitated marked improvement in his long-game last week. And it's not just a hunch that the weather helps him. McIlroy's best performance so far in this event came in 2019, when heavy rain fell and play was suspended. Riviera played long and wet and McIlroy shot a second-round 63 to overcome a slow start, eventually finishing fourth behind Holmes.

"I think we're all looking forward to getting back there," he said last week. "It's one of the best tracks we play all year." Of his final-round 64 for an eventual share of 14th, he added: "I played really well today, which is great. Sets me up well for next week."

And on that 64, how's this for a stat? Six times during the last three seasons he's closed with a round of 64 or better, and he's won four tournaments on his next start, losing a play-off in another. That includes the Masters, which he prepared for with a closing 64 in Houston, and it doesn't even include Pebble Beach last year which followed his low round of the week, a closing 66 in Dubai.

In a nutshell, McIlroy has often telegraphed a win by ending his previous start in full flow and with the transition to Riviera a simple one, the main difference being he can now unleash off the tee, the Masters champion can pick up where he left off and win again under perfect conditions.

For those who fear Scheffler too much, note you can currently get 10/1 with Betfred and BoyleSports for McIlroy without Scheffler, and even bits and pieces of 11/1 with smaller firms. He's a fair bit shorter elsewhere though so we'll stick to the more widely accessible outright market. Note most bookmakers have a separate 'win only' book where you'll get an extra point or two on the price.

Now to address last week's immense frustration: victory for Morikawa. A week earlier I'd written that he was the player most likely to produce Scheffler-like numbers with his iron play and made him the headline bet in Phoenix, where he was poor. To then see him produce Scheffler-like numbers with his iron play to win at Pebble Beach, where I'd selected him in 2025, was immensely frustrating.

What's more, I feel vindicated in selecting Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 and Xander Schauffele at 28/1. They're both shorter for this and correctly considered the third and fourth best players in the field, which they ought to have been at Pebble Beach. Fleetwood at least produced a birdie-birdie finish to secure profit, but like a handful of others he'll feel fourth place could've been something so much better.

Schauffele is the one I'd prefer around here but the price now better reflects his chance so I'll pivot to CAMERON YOUNG, content to invest fully in the idea that this could be a long slog.

• CLICK HERE to back Young with Sky Bet

Young was second after rounds one, two, three and four on debut, defying the general trend towards experience at this historic venue, and he did something similar at Augusta the following year when seventh. Since then he's added another Masters top 10 and two more top-20s at Riviera from as many starts, so his course record, supported by that Augusta correlation, is among the best in the field.

And that's a big contrast with the events he's played so far this year. OK, he'd been eighth and 12th in Phoenix but there's nothing spectacular in his form book at Scottsdale. Torrey Pines ought to fit, but 22nd was almost the best he's done there, bettered only by 20th a couple of years earlier, his other three visits all missed cuts. As for Pebble Beach, 55th place last week might've been modest, but it was a comfy career-best.

Riviera is by far and away the course at which he's most effective among those he plays prior to the Masters and that's reflected not just in his results, but in a set of consistently excellent statistics. He averages a couple of strokes gained per round from his ball-striking and it's not just off-the-tee, which we might expect, but quality approach play too. That's improved lately but ahead of his previous starts here was patchy at best.

All of this is enough to excuse what looks an underwhelming start to a year which promised plenty when he followed his breakout win with a brilliant Ryder Cup debut, and we will learn a lot more about where he is over the coming days. Certainly there will be no excuses where conditions are concerned and a continuation of his long-game numbers around here will make him a genuine contender.

Young hit the ball well in round one last week and did so for much of round four until a poor second to the par-five sixth, but for which he was on course to threaten the top 20. Still, I'm anticipating a big step forward with everything, from course to conditions, in his favour. He's 28/1 with eight and 10 places and a top-price 33s with five.

More Swede success on the cards

But for the fact I expect Riviera to play at its longest, Shane Lowry would've been of some interest on price grounds. Even more so than Young he enjoyed a spectacular Ryder Cup and he's used it as a springboard, contending a couple of times since. He may win again this year and with a strong Augusta record and a good top-20 here last time, firmer conditions would've made him a smashing each-way bet at 50-plus.

Min Woo Lee is the more obvious one from last week, especially as his approach play was so good. Indeed it was arguably his usual strength, chipping and pitching, that saw him fall just short of Morikawa's total and he's a player of abundant power who should love what he sees when he arrives for a second look at Riviera. The first ended in a missed cut but that was four years ago and he wasn't playing well.

He's last off my list and I hope I don't regret giving LUDVIG ABERG the benefit of the doubt instead.

• CLICK HERE to back Aberg with Sky Bet

Aberg is in fact the defending champion as he won the event up at Torrey Pines, which in itself is a good pointer. And that's a big part of the case: as well as having been 19th here on debut, Aberg has contended on both starts at Augusta, so already in his young career he's strongly hinted that a course like Riviera should be perfect.

With his work around the greens having improved, something I must admit that I've been slow to cotton onto, the only question mark concerns his wellbeing after a stuttering start to the year, illness forcing his withdrawal from the AmEx when in a decent position, and that seemingly carrying over to the following week's miserable effort back at Torrey Pines.

That's why I couldn't justify taking big odds last week and Aberg again started poorly, but then he carded rounds of 69, 66 and 67 to climb from near last to mid-pack. This was in part powered by putting improvements from one day to the next but his iron play was electric on Saturday and he drove the ball nicely to finish, so there were hints things are falling into place.

Aberg signed off last year with eight successive top-25s, including a near-miss in the DP World Tour Championship and two top-10s in the FedExCup Playoffs, while he was a bit of an unsung hero of the Ryder Cup. As others around him faltered, his singles point against one of the most reliable USA performers was vital, further evidence of the qualities I believe will likely make him a major champion.

Of course, in an ideal world we'd have something more tangible from this season to work with, but that would come with a shorter price. And so I return to those conditions and the fact that they could plenty into his hands while working against the likes of Morikawa, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, perhaps even Fleetwood and certainly Lowry.

It seems a good time to play Aberg at bigger prices than he was sent off in majors last year, in anticipation of a return to his very best in the coming weeks. Hopefully, we're not early again and he makes loads of appeal whether you want to take bet365's 45/1 for five places, Betfred's same price to six places, or shave a little off for a couple more of them.

Pierceson Coody's runner-up finish at Torrey Pines marks him down as a potential debut contender but I'll side with the greater experience of TAYLOR PENDRITH for the final selection.

• CLICK HERE to back Pendrith with Sky Bet

That doesn't necessarily apply to the course as he's played here once in 2022, missing the cut at a time when he was far from the player he is now, but Pendrith produced his first major top-five finish last year and looks ready to kick on.

The fact that came at Quail Hollow could be significant as while aesthetically somewhat different, and of course on opposite sides of the USA, parallels between the two appear strong. James Hahn, Homa and Holmes have each won at both, Keegan Bradley, Johnson and Scott almost have, and Wyndham Clark had shown up well at Riviera prior to his breakthrough in what was the Wells Fargo.

Also 10th there previously, Pendrith has a big tick in that box and he's certainly among the most powerful players in this field. He's putting better again, too, perhaps not a coincidence now we're back on the west coast, while there appear to have been significant improvements to his short-game over the past 12 months.

The one area he struggles in is driving accuracy but that's almost irrelevant here so I'm sure Riviera is a good course for the Canadian, who got better with every round last week and finally dialled in his approaches on Sunday. With his length much more of an asset now, and three good putting rounds in four, everything is coming together at a nice time.

What's more, Pendrith ended last year 51st in the world, painfully shy of securing major starts, and is now down to 64th. This could be a massive opportunity to qualify for the Masters and with four top-10s across Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, it makes more sense for him to do so here than it does in Florida, where he has none of those so far.

With one low-grade PGA Tour win to his name so far I won't be alone in wondering if he can land something as big as this come the crunch, but at north of 50/1 I'm happy to take that chance in anticipation of a strong performance. As with Young, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair offer 10 places at 66s and bet365 are the same price for eight.

Three weeks ago I put up Tony Finau for the Farmers at 150/1 only to see him fall agonisingly short of the places in 11th after a sloppy finish. It's tempting to roll out the same argument here at Riviera, where he's twice been second, and after another bounce-back top-20 at Pebble Beach last week there's certainly an argument for doing so.

But his price has collapsed from an opening 250/1 to as short as 55/1 in places and that really is that. This is tougher than the Farmers, for which Aberg was 16/1; we're getting double the odds on him, so about half the odds on Finau has to be turned down, especially as he rode a hot putter last week. It seems unlikely to remain hot for another four tournament rounds.

That leaves Ryan Fox and Sam Stevens completing my shortlist but both are course debutants. Stevens is hitting the ball nicely but Fox in particular appears well-suited to this assignment, down to the kikuyu grass and emphasis on good hands around the greens, and the way he played last week offers real encouragement.

He'd be the pick of the pair, having hit the ball well at Quail Hollow in last year's PGA and also performed with credit at Augusta. But winning here first time up has always been a big ask, something last achieved more than 20 years ago, and there are probably better ways to side with the Kiwi even if he does have a handy knack of winning when a chance comes along.

Posted at 11:00 GMT on 17/02/26

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