Rory McIlroy has taken control of the Masters heading into the weekend. Ben Coley previews the third round at Augusta National.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round three
1pt McNealy and Scott to win their two-balls at 21/10 (bet365, BOYLE Sports)
2pts Schauffele and Koepka to win their two-balls at 5/2 (William Hill)
And like that, he was gone.
Birdies at holes 12, 13, 15, 16, 17 and 18 sent Rory McIlroy into a six-shot lead through 36 holes at Augusta, the largest in the history of the tournament. McIlroy is 2/5 to become the fourth player ever to defend this title and just the second to do so at the first attempt. Right now, it seems inevitable that he will do so.
Of course, this is a player who was five ahead with six to play last year and required a play-off to finally get his hands on a Green Jacket, and part of the Rory McIlroy experience is a kind of chaos that the player he's seeking to emulate, Sir Nick Faldo, did his best to eliminate. Is it over? No, and it had better not be in his head. We can talk all we like about the mental load that was lifted a year ago, but this is still a major championship. Just because you've won them all before doesn't make them nothing.
But McIlroy will very likely win, because among all the noise and all the complications there are two truths we've seen play out over 36 quite brilliant holes: he is one of the greatest golfers of all time, and he knows exactly how to play Augusta National now. That will mean continuing to take on shots, avoiding defensive golf, and could see him better his own US Open and PGA record winning margins of eight strokes.
The chasing pack is very good and includes his 2018 conqueror Patrick Reed, plus some of McIlroy's closest friends; players who, had things turned out differently and he somehow missed the cut, he'd now be desperately hoping provided the winner so that he could enjoy a dream Butler Cabin experience. McIlroy will not be handing a Green Jacket to anyone else if he avoids disaster this weekend, though.
From the point of view of my pre-tournament preview, it was frustrating to see Tommy Fleetwood go from one behind for a while to now seven back of McIlroy, but I couldn't go as far as to call it upsetting. Hopefully he sticks around as one of the key challengers, perhaps playing his way into the final group on Sunday, and Hideki Matsuyama is close enough to have a run at the places too.
Charl Schwartzel won the top South African market comfortably in the end and we still have two runners for top debutant, albeit Jacob Bridgeman has fallen behind. Ben Griffin, advised at 11/1, sits one back of Kristoffer Reitan, so he has just about as good a chance as anyone there. Should he win and Fleetwood place, it will have been a profitable week without, I suspect, sniffing the winner.
Three-balls unfortunately didn't go as well as hoped. Yesterday's 13/1 double looked like winning for four-plus hours but lost when Nicolai Hojgaard birdied the 18th hole, and the afternoon double saw Matt McCarty let us down. It turns out, taking on both Hojgaard twins was a mistake after all.
The first two-ball selection is MAVERICK MCNEALY, who looks a solid bet to beat Sergio Garcia.
Garcia has cut a particularly downbeat figure all week and there was talk of retirement in the Spanish press should things not improve. That's quite drastic and seems unlikely given how much he's paid to trot around in midfield on the LIV Golf circuit, but it says a lot about where his head is at a course that has frustrated him every year since he won the Masters.
The other part of the equation is that McNealy, a borderline world-class player now, hasn't fired on the greens as yet. That department is an undoubted strength of his and shows how well he hit the ball on Friday, so the American has scope to progress into the top 30 or so from a current share of 45th.
At around the same time, VIKTOR HOVLAND can account for Keegan Bradley and complete a double at 2/1 and upwards.
Hovland seems genuinely enthused with how he's driving the ball and that's a notable change since reuniting with his former coach, so I wonder if we might be approaching one of his spikes – he'll be hoping so ahead of next month's PGA at a course which ought to be perfect for him.
In the meantime he's already playing at a higher level than a largely out-of-sorts Bradley and as the latter has a modest Augusta record, it's Hovland who seems more likely to move forwards. Yes, there will be moments of worry when he misses a green but Bradley has been even worse in that department so far and is a much less capable putter as well.
Bradley will likely have to stripe it to win this match and I'm happy taking him on.
Among the later matches I'd like to be taking on Reitan but Haotong Li's illness on Thursday night makes that risky. Who knows whether he's caught up on sleep and while at first glance 6/5 looked a good price against an inexperienced player who has relied heavily on his putter, unfortunately Li comes with too many unknowns.
Preference is for XANDER SCHAUFFELE and BROOKS KOEPKA, two major champions who can be relied upon to play well.
Schauffele has struck the ball exceptionally to this point but some short-game mistakes have kept him on the edges of the leaderboard. He's still on track for his fourth top-10 in a row here and can get the better of Jake Knapp, an in-form powerhouse who is putting well but lacks Schauffele's class and experience.
Koepka plays with fellow Nike-branded bomber Chris Gotterup and in anticipation of Augusta National being set up more fearsomely than was the case on Friday, again I prefer experience and superior approach play. That's what we're buying into with both selections and at 5/2 they make for a nice double.
Posted at 07:30 BST on 11/04/26
More Masters content
- Three takeaways from Thursday
- The Masters: Player-by-player guide
- Stats and in-play betting guide
- Augusta National: Hole-by-hole
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