Four of Ben Coley's five two-ball picks obliged on day one, enough for a 9/2 treble and healthy profit. He has five more to consider for day two.
Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach two-balls
2pt double Kitayama and Cantlay to win their two-balls at 11/5 (General)
1pt treble Berger, Taylor and Mitchell to win their two-balls at 9/2 (General)
The host course was the place to be on day one of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, as Spyglass Hill played around 1.5 strokes tougher. That wasn't necessarily reflected in the very top of the leaderboard but at the very bottom, where 10 of just 12 over-par scores came at the tighter, more prohibitive course.
With Scottie Scheffler having carded a level-par round at the easier course, it's no wonder this market is wide-open. Scheffler can never be ruled out, not after defying a poor start to be third last week, but he does face a mammoth task under less-than-ideal conditions and, for once, maybe he won't even crack the top 10. That hasn't happened in almost a year.
I tend to think in these multi-course events that the market overestimates the disparity in scoring, that is to say it assumes players will find it easier at a different golf course. I'm certainly not sure I'd want to be taking 10/1 about Keegan Bradley, who shot the best score at Spyglass, nor rush to take 28/1 about pre-tournament 300/1 shot Tony Finau after he went round there in eight-under.
The hope is that Tommy Fleetwood, whose five-under should've been lower, can be among those to take advantage of a benign Pebble Beach, and that Xander Schauffele is still in this come the weekend after he too showed signs of promise at Spyglass. Beyond that I don't have a view on this tournament and how it might shape up from here. We'll know much more once the stagger unwinds and we enter the weekend.
Away from the outcome of the tournament it was a solid start to daily and specials previews, with a 9/2 winning treble kicking things off. That treble – Max McGreevy, KURT KITAYAMA and Si Woo Kim – saw all three players win pretty comfortably in the end and at the same price again, there's definitely some temptation to simply go back in.
However, Kim ranks 54th of 54 players in this field in Spyglass scoring and part of the case for McGreevy was his somewhat hidden history at Pebble Beach, so the move in course can't be considered a positive. Plus, JJ Spaun showed himself to be fit and healthy, or so it seems, and McGreevy's usual strengths were not on display.
Kitayama however did what he does and hit it really well, which should see him beat Aldrich Potgieter again. The South African is struggling badly and his power isn't that much use to him at Spyglass. Kitayama ranks among the top-10 scorers here in pure strokes-gained terms and while that's based on only three rounds, it's another thing in his favour.
Everything is, in truth, and he's the best bet of the day at 4/5 generally.
I'll double him with PATRICK CANTLAY, who loves Spyglass and made a fine start at Pebble Beach. It was good to see his putter show a little more and he can turn the tables on Andrew Novak, who crucially has struggled in both previous rounds here.
Novak excelled from tee-to-green on Thursday and were they staying put I'd think twice, but the move to Spyglass is key. Cantlay, again at 4/5, looks solid and the double is pennies shy of 9/4 with bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes.
On paper, Jason Day to beat Cameron Young is the bet again at Pebble Beach but that was the single loser among five first-round selections and once bitten, twice shy is the outcome. Day didn't hit the ball well enough to be given another chance, particularly against a high-class opponent who was in full control of his ball.
DANIEL BERGER is first up against a struggling Marco Penge.
They tied on Thursday, both having been awful on and around the greens, but Berger is a past champion whose affinity with the event is very strong. He prefers Pebble Beach, too, and that gives him a significant edge. Berger ranks third in strokes-gained total here and has done everything well in the past.
NICK TAYLOR is only just behind him in fourth and while it was his short-game which powered a fine start at Spyglass, this is as much about the vulnerability of his opponent.
Jhonattan Vegas continues to look all at sea, his approach play as bad as his putting, and there were seven shots between these two to kick things off. Moving to Pebble Beach, where Vegas is no more comfortable, I can't see the gap narrowing significantly enough to worry us this evening.
It's tempting to stick with these two at 19/10 but I'm adding KEITH MITCHELL for a treble at a shade bigger than 9/2.
Mitchell was outscored by Mackenzie Hughes yesterday but that means we're getting odds-against about a player with a significantly better Pebble Beach record, who is significantly higher up the DataGolf rankings, and probably ought to be odds-on.
Hughes is a shade more effective at Spyglass, where he got away with some wayward tee-shots in round one, and if Mitchell putts to about field average he can gain revenge at Pebble Beach, where he ranks second in strokes-gained ball-striking among more than 60 players.
That's based on a decent sample of 15 rounds in his case and contrasts starkly with a pretty miserable record at Spyglass. Hopefully the change of scenery sparks the improvement it usually does and he can turn the tables on a far more erratic player.
Posted at 09:10 GMT on 13/02/26
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