Ben Coley's golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and best bets

• Rory McIlroy defends his title at iconic course
• World number one goes for second win of 2026
• Outsiders have good record at Pebble Beach

Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

3pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Michael Kim at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, 100/1 Betfred)

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Given what happened last year, it's more than a little convenient to suggest that the road to Augusta National begins here at Pebble Beach, but there's absolutely no denying the fact that the PGA Tour steps up a level this week.

Whatever your thoughts on the Signature Events which now colour the season, we can surely all agree that one of the positives has been to get the best players on the circuit playing a course Rory McIlroy described a golfing cathedral when capturing this title. Yes, it's a shame that a bigger purse was needed to get him back here and to get Scottie Scheffler to make his tournament debut, but it has been a price worth paying. Pebble Beach would be a fine spectacle regardless, but it's a better one with the stars of the sport in town.

Like McIlroy before him, now that he's here I'm sure Scheffler would dearly love to add another cathedral to his own collection and there was something dreadfully ominous about his third place in Phoenix. The world number one played some of his worst golf in years last Thursday yet come Sunday was back in the thick of things and that's very likely where he'll spend all of the next four days of tournament golf.

There aren't many holes to pick, not now that he's even won in California, but there's at least an argument that the deemphasis on driving negates one of his many advantages, while he's struggled a little around these greens. These are straws we are clutching and in truth I think the price is pretty good. If you're minded to get stuck into the favourite, don't let me stop you.

As for what Pebble Beach specifically asks of a player, that changed a little under soft, low-scoring conditions last year, no doubt helping McIlroy dominate off the tee in a way we won't usually see here. Pebble Beach is predominantly a positional golf course, one whose tiny greens make approach play difficult and scrambling necessary, which driver often isn't.

More rain does raise the prospect of a McIlroy-esque performance and 18 holes at Spyglass Hill complicate matters anyway, but on balance this is more likely to return to type. McIlroy is one of the great drivers of all-time, but lots of bad ones have won this title and if you're looking for ways to get the big two beaten, I'd start anywhere but off the tee.

There are two players I like towards the top of the betting, with TOMMY FLEETWOOD the headline pick.

It's been a quiet start to 2026 for the reigning FedExCup champion, perhaps not surprising given all that he achieved last year, but after a poor Dubai Invitational, his iron play was elite again in the following week's Desert Classic.

Fleetwood signed off with a 69 for a mid-pack finish at a course he's never quite cracked, and he did so without his short-game firing. It might not have been the big step forward he and his backers would've hoped for, but to my eye it was strong evidence that he's up and running for the campaign, with a shot at winning likely coming soon enough.

Down the years he's been a fantastic scrambler and with the previous 10 of his last 11 starts returning above-average putting figures, I'm happy relying on his short-game joining the party at Pebble Beach. If it does, the body of work he's produced over the past year – enough to rank second only to Scheffler with DataGolf – merits shorter prices than those attached to his name.

This is a player who has routinely been going off just a point or two bigger than McIlroy, who until last year everyone thought wasn't that well suited to Pebble Beach, and who has been rightly popular at 25/1 for majors. To be the same price here suggests either a substantive downturn in form or clear proof that this isn't the right course, but I don't think either is true.

Pebble Beach should be a really good fit, in fact. He's not quite shown it yet, but last year's closing bogey at the par-five 18th hole added 10 spots to his finishing position, 22nd still no disaster, and he's shot 67 and 68 at the host course in the last two years. We might need better at Spyglass but he's had limited chances there so far and showed promise with a best of 69, enough to suggest it won't be a problem.

Indeed it's Monterey Peninsula, now axed from the event, which gave him trouble on debut and with three top-10s in his last five California starts, I reckon now's the time for Fleetwood to compete in this event. He was 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green last year, had been among the best iron players in one of just two previous starts in the event, and has of course shaken the monkey off his back since then.

Right now I maintain he's the third-best player on the PGA Tour and with so many of the other contenders for that title underperforming, Fleetwood holds an excellent chance to go ahead and prove it. Indeed if he were to win, he might be entitled to call himself clear best of the rest, including McIlroy, for the time being at least.

Next, my head was turned by XANDER SCHAUFFELE's closing 65 in Phoenix, a round bettered by just three players, and it could be just the springboard he needs.

Let's not forget that Schauffele won in Japan just three starts ago and after a long break, during which time he no doubt got a proper taste of the realities of parenthood, there was no shame in a narrow missed cut on his return at Torrey Pines – even if it did put an end to a phenomenal streak of cuts made.

Another seemed possible in Phoenix after a slow start but he fought hard and finished on the front foot, the numbers confirming that, like Fleetwood, his short-game had been the issue. It was therefore encouraging to see it improve massively on Sunday, when he also ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach, and I'm hoping that round tees him up nicely for this.

Schauffele is of course Californian and he has a good record in his home state, one which dates back to third place in the US Open here at Pebble Beach. He returned in 2024 and struggled early on, but closed with a five-under 67, bogey-free, and ranked 16th in strokes-gained approach at the host course, one he so clearly enjoys.

Softer conditions will be in his favour and having been forced to sit out last year's renewal through injury, Schauffele should be raring to go. This is a player who went off 16/1 and finished seventh in the Open just six starts ago, has won since, and feels like the forgotten man in the market. That's somewhat understandable, but I'm hoping we're left to reflect on the big clue he dropped at Scottsdale on Sunday.

There seems to be a strong view that those clues came from Viktor Hovland and he was high on my shortlist, but after a good deal of deliberating I have left him out. It's not so much that he's shorter for this than he was the Phoenix Open – he had no form there, so it's understandable – it's just that I don't think his overall body of work merits being priced among the very best of the rest.

Hovland was about 18/1 for the Dubai Desert Classic, where McIlroy was 3/1 and Fleetwood 7/1, and let's remember he's a past champion there. To now be just a few points bigger when the other two have quadrupled in price, all on the back of a top-10 finish in Phoenix, must surely be considered an overreaction to that plus the fact he did win the US Amateur at this course almost a decade ago.

There are other reasons to like Hovland's chances, particularly some notable improvement to his work around the greens, but I fancy he'll do as he did last week and flatter to deceive in the end. He's just not quite back to his best and while he is undoubtedly the type who can turn it on and hang around when he does, the price has to be the determining factor. My view, and it is of course subjective, is that his offers no value.

Kim over Cantlay among other Californians

I've been guilty of pursuing returns to form for Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa over the past fortnight and stung both times, but they of course made the shortlist again. Morikawa has more questions to answer but Cantlay hit the ball well again at Torrey Pines, loves Pebble Beach, and could pay out in a different way – he's been inside the top 10 after round one six times in seven starts in this event, plus 13th in the other.

Ludvig Aberg is the one elite player being dangled at a truly tempting price but that reflects form figures of WD-MC due to illness, and it was under such a cloud that he performed badly here last year. He's quiet on social media but if there is positive word as to his condition then you'd be wise to quickly skip along to Betfair Exchange and take what are bound to be big prices. Already, the 2024 runner-up is dangled at 46.0.

But of all the Signature Event courses currently in operation, Pebble Beach might be the most prone to throwing up a surprise champion and it's in that spirit that I'll turn to MICHAEL KIM instead.

Though McIlroy won at a drifting 14/1 last year, behind him were the likes of Lucas Glover (T3), Cam Davis (T5) and Billy Horschel (T9), all massive prices, and though hard to believe now so was Rose in a share of third. Runner-up Shane Lowry could be backed at about 66/1 and Russell Henley was also north of 50/1.

The previous renewal was reduced to 54 holes but Matthieu Pavon, Thomas Detry and Mark Hubbard all made the top five behind a 66/1 winner, while in the pre-Signature days we had wins against the odds for Nick Taylor, Tom Hoge and Ted Potter Jr. It's simply a golf course which levels the playing field and even in the US Open we've had surprises since Tiger Woods' demolition job at the turn of the century.

With that in mind we shouldn't assume a player like Kim isn't classy enough to win this and there's a lot to like about the profile of another Californian, one who went travelling to capture the Open de France last autumn.

Another top-10 finish in a strong event in India soon followed and he signed off the DP World Tour season with a respectable 24th in Dubai, then since Christmas he's brought this form with him to the PGA Tour, where 31-MC-18 represents a solid enough run.

Last week in Phoenix we saw him shoot a second-round 65 to lie 10th at halfway and having tidied up off the tee over the past couple of weeks, his blend of quality approach play and red-hot putting is a compelling one. Besides, Pebble Beach is a course where he doesn't have to employ the driver all that often anyway.

Unsurprisingly, Kim says it's one of his favourite courses in the world and he also says he's 'trending' and has been since Hawaii, so I'm hopeful it all comes together on his return to this event. When last he played it, Kim ranked first in strokes-gained tee-to-green and that's despite incoming form of MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-47-35-MC-MC-44 to begin that wraparound season.

Indeed 11th place here was really the start of his comeback and there's nothing negative to be taken from two prior missed cuts. The first was in 2019, when he didn't make a single cut all year but was closer here than most places; the second came two years later, when he'd only just ended one of the longest cuts-missed streaks you will ever see.

Undoubtedly this is the first time he's played at Pebble Beach with his game in good working order and having impressed when taking his chances to win, including against Brooks Koepka in France, he's the kind of outsider I like. That his wedge play is such an asset is a further boost given the average approach-shot distance here, which is shorter than last week, and he was 27th in scrambling last season too.

Anything above 66/1 rates smashing value about a former amateur star who can certainly win again on the PGA Tour one day.

Posted at 20:00 GMT on 09/02/26

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