With the favourite casting a shadow over one of the first-round leader markets, we're playing two-balls on day one at Pebble Beach.
Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach two-balls
1pt double Day and Taylor to win their two-balls at 11/4 (BoyleSports, Betfred)
1pt treble SW Kim, Kitayama and McGreevy to win their two-balls at 9/2 (General)
With a two-course split over the first two days of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, this is as good a chance as you'll have all year to bag a winner in the first-round leader market. There are two of them, one for Pebble Beach and another for Spyglass Hill, and each is made up of just 40 runners, so this is far less competitive than is usually the case.
I had been keen to try Patrick Cantlay, whose record after round one in this event is astonishing, with finishing positions of first, second, second, fourth, fifth, fifth, eighth and 13th. Two of these count as clear leads, as when second in 2020 those alongside and ahead of him had played other courses.
Unfortunately, he's at Pebble Beach and I'd rather he were at Spyglass Hill, not just because it's slightly more suitable but because Scottie Scheffler begins at Pebble Beach. The world number one is going to hard to beat even over 18 holes and there are plenty of other players I don't really want to be betting against, especially as Cantlay's price isn't as generous as hoped.
Rory McIlroy is easier to oppose on the other side of the draw but there's a similar predicament. Taylor Pendrith has become especially effective at Pebble Beach, where he's 22-under for his last five rounds, but they begin at Spyglass where he's not been as comfortable. He'd been the one on my list but if pushed I'd have to switch sides to his compatriot Nick Taylor, who has always loved it around here.
Ultimately I wound up without a bet having been keen to play in this market so we'll stick to the two-balls, firstly at Pebble Beach where SI WOO KIM, KURT KITAYAMA and MAX MCGREEVY make for a 9/2 treble.
Kim plays with US Open champion JJ Spaun, who has a modest record in this event with one top-20 and four missed cuts in seven tries. He's a better player now of course but has made a poor start to the year, finishing 40th in Hawaii at a course he likes and then missing the cut at Torrey Pines, where again he's enjoyed some success in the past.
Spaun then withdrew just prior to his tee-time in Phoenix so has questions to answer, whereas Kim is one of the most in-form golfers on the planet right now. He also prefers Pebble Beach (ninth in strokes-gained total among this 80-man field) more than Spyglass, which is key to selecting him at just a shade of odds-on.
Kitayama is slightly better than average at this course but is much higher up the ball-striking stats, his putter having been the issue. That might remain the case but if he's solid from tee-to-green it should be enough against debutant Aldrich Potgieter, who has missed all three cuts to begin the season and hit just eight of 28 fairways in Phoenix last week.
He's not especially well-suited to this assignment, isn't putting well either, and if I had to pick someone to be last of 40 it might be him. Hopefully that proves somewhat accurate and the way is clear for a solid number from Kitayama to do the trick. He has typically produced those here.
McGreevy has missed both cuts in this event but they were a while ago and since then he's won the Pebble Beach Invitational, a small event held here at the end of each year. Coming back for the first time since is bound to provide positive memories and it coincides with some of the best form of his life, with top-three finishes at two other coastal courses late last year and a good start to this one.
Accurate and a quality iron player, McGreevy has the game for this whereas Matti Schmid still has that to prove. He shot 75-73-77 to miss the cut on one previous appearance in the event, has gone MC-MC-56-MC to begin 2026, and the one time he made the cut was at Torrey Pines, to which he is obviously more suited. McGreevy has won the round one battle five times in a row and can make it six.
At Spyglass Hill, let's keep things nice and simple with NICK TAYLOR and JASON DAY, two players who love the course.
Taylor plays with Jhonattan Vegas, a big disappointment at Torrey Pines two weeks ago and badly out of sorts. Always a player liable to putt poorly, more disconcerting are his long-game numbers right now and he's got very little chance of being competitive unless his iron play improves. It seems sure to place too much pressure on a weak short-game.
And Taylor is the ideal man to take advantage. Champion here in 2020, he's played 11 rounds at Spyglass and ranks inside the top eight in strokes-gained total. His precise iron play and quality work around the greens are big assets here and he returns in good nick, with a recent first-round lead to his name for good measure.
He's the banker while Day is excellent value at odds-against to beat Cameron Young. Day leads this field in Spyglass scoring whereas Young ranks 55th and while that's based on just a couple of rounds in his case, form figures of 70-72 in this event, in fields of 80, speak for themselves. He's also made a slowish start to the year and looks a bad favourite against such an event and course specialist.
The double pays 11/4 and that'll do nicely for me, but those wanting a third leg should consider Harris English against Lucas Glover. The latter has been absent since August whereas English is playing beautifully at the moment, the slight snag being his own record at Spyglass. Still, 8/11 about a borderline top-class golfer against a less capable one who has been out for six months looks good on the face of it.
Posted at 07:00 GMT on 11/02/26
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