Ben Coley previews the final round of the Kenya Open, where some of the brightest young talents on the DP World Tour are in the mix.
Golf betting tips: Kenya Open final round
1pt double Adam and Campillo to win their three-balls at 11/2 (bet365)
Timing is everything and it's fair to say mine has been fractionally off this past fortnight. First, 40/1 Phoenix Open pick Collin Morikawa won at Pebble Beach a week later instead. Now, last week's confident 16/1 HotelPlanner Tour selection, Casey Jarvis, shares the lead entering the final round of the Kenya Open.
Jarvis received a favourable mention in Monday's preview, but not as favourable as Angel Ayora, the 12/1 favourite who has lived up to that billing and now sits alongside him. From a purely selfish perspective I hope Ayora wins. Not only is it easier to stomach 'missing' players at 12/1 than it is at 33s, but he was recommended in small-stakes doubles with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the Genesis Invitational.
At the time of writing Scheffler is surely done for, set to begin the weekend 12 shots behind, but McIlroy is a strong favourite from one back. It's very much been a case of so far, so good with the pre-tournament 14/1 chance and the two players ahead of him lack his experience and PGA Tour-winning form. Should McIlroy bring his best to Riviera Country Club this weekend, he'll take a lot of beating.
Hopefully, by the time Ayora and Jarvis tee off in Nairobi, McIlroy has strengthened his position. If Ayora then goes on to win, we'd be able to consider firing the necessary cover shots over on the PGA Tour, with the Ayora-McIlroy double having been around the 150/1 mark and McIlroy also recommended win-only.
If that's the dream scenario, there are two nightmare ones, and both involve McIlroy failing to win. There's a strong chance that either Ayora or Jarvis will do so in Kenya, and if that isn't followed by McIlroy later on Sunday... well, I might need Monday off. But let's worry about that should it happen. As I type, that 150/1 double is more like 13/2, so the jackpot is very much in play. Let's hope the timing is right.
As for what I think will happen in the final round here, if Ayora can match Jarvis on the greens I suspect he'll win. He's been even better than he typically is from tee-to-green so far and has missed a chunk of short birdie putts, mopping up plenty of others and looking every inch like someone who is ready. This is a 21-year-old with enormous potential, enough to become genuinely world-class in the coming years.
At 22, Jarvis is more experienced but not much older. His profile is broadly similar in that he won an event in his sole HotelPlanner Tour season and graduated as one of the hottest properties around. In fact of those who play full-time on the DP World Tour, these are the two best prospects under the age of 24, for all that I'd have Ayora out on his own at the top of that particular list.
There are others involved who we can't dismiss, including Davis Bryant, the American who once again came through Q-School in November. His rookie DP World Tour campaign saw him contend at Eichenried, a course with strong form ties to this one, and he's well used to altitude having grown up in Colorado. His form coming in was poor (64-MC) but this is a totally different ball game to golf in the Middle East and he suddenly looks at ease.
Hennie du Plessis has come of age since returning from injury and this talented South African finished with four birdies in five holes to reignite his challenge. His Middle East form was excellent and, like Jarvis and Ayora, he was among the market leaders coming into the event. He's got to be given a slight edge over Bryant in the circumstances, but Francesco Laporta, Jacob Skov Olesen and Nathan Kimsey are all capable of joining in too and this should be cracking viewing.
My preference is for Ayora but without knowing what will come of McIlroy this evening, I don't need to be getting involved at short prices. He'll be the one I'm cheering on and that'll do. For those reading this preview without a pre-tournament position, or keen to have a bet regardless, the dashing Spaniard is the pick. It's not an exciting angle but this is a very exciting player and I hope this is the beginning of a path to the top level of the sport. He looks that good.
Three-ball options are a little thin on the ground but CAMERON ADAM can underline his potential on a day bristling with it by cracking the top 10.
Adam came into the week talking a good game, telling The Scotsman that something good was around the corner, but at three-over through four holes that self-belief appeared misplaced.
Since then however he's been excellent, shooting 15-under for the next 50 holes, and he can push on for his first DP World Tour top 10.
Playing partners Mark Power and Tapio Pulkkanen appear beatable, the former having largely struggled at tour level so far and the latter having never fared well at Karen before. Clearly that's changed this week, aided by some handy performances on the HotelPlanner Tour, but he's relied on the putter and is a player I'm very comfortable opposing at short odds.
Power has massively exceeded expectations on his first tour-level start since winning a satellite event late last year and there's a lot on the line here, with a top-10 finish enough to earn an invite to the SA Open. That's true of all three but Adam knows he'll have plenty of opportunities in the coming months regardless given his superior playing status on the DP World Tour. He can underline his potential.
Gregorio De Leo is in-form and hasn't made a bogey since Thursday but he's in with two talented players so for the second pick I'll opt for JORGE CAMPILLO.
It's been a bizarre week for the former Kenya Open champion, as he's nine-over for holes three and four, which is 11 worse than two leaders he trails by seven. The third has cost him seven shots alone and he'll be full of regret at the way he's managed that tricky par-four, because otherwise he's been exceptional.
If we can get through that hole unscathed he can power away from Alejandro del Rey and David Law, the latter having gone backwards since a fabulous start and the former ranking among the worst ball-strikers in the top 50. He's got by on chipping and putting and while that's somewhat true of Campillo, his numbers are heavily skewed by those two holes early in the front-nine.
The double pays upwards of 11/2, but if only one double can win on Sunday, hopefully it's the other one.
Posted at 12:15 GMT on 21/02/26
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