Martin Mathews previews the final round of the Memorial Tournament and picks out his best bets.
Golf betting tips: Memorial Tournament
1.5pts Keegan Bradley to beat Jordan Spieth in two-ball at 7/5 (BoyleSports)
2pts Davis Riley to beat Luke List in two-ball at 5/6 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt win double Keegan Bradley and Davis Riley to win their two-balls at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
For much of this week's Memorial Tournament it looked like we were heading for a log-jammed leaderboard going into Sunday as a host of players vied to get into contention.
On Saturday, however, Billy Horschel had different ideas as he took the tournament by the scruff of the neck to open up a five-shot lead on the back of a scintillating 65.
Horschel has built a reputation of being very much a confidence player and when it all clicks as it has this week he is capable of winning big, something we saw most notably in the 2014 Fedex Cup.
This week, after a re-set following a missed cut at the Charles Schwab last week, he has played near flawless golf. His only blot on the copy book was a bogey on his very first hole on Thursday, since when he has gone bogey-free to post his 54-hole total of 13-under.
Horschel leads the field from tee to green so far this week, ranks second around the greens and sits in the top twenty of all other key statistics for the week, and if he can maintain anything like that level of performance it is very hard to picture him being beaten.
A six-time winner on the PGA Tour and more recently a winner of the flagship BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour, Horschel boasts a two-from-four conversion rate when he has held the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour and for those who are happy to get stuck in, odds-on quotes of 4/7 this morning seem a bit generous for him to close things out.
If the chasing pack are looking for some hope, though, they don’t have to go too far back in the memory banks as the last two weeks have seen players triumph from seven shots back on Sunday, firstly Justin Thomas bagging the trophy at the PGA and then Sam Burns coming from out of the pack at Colonial last week, and if Horschel falters, as he did when he shared the 54-hole lead at Bay Hill earlier this year, things could suddenly take a very different complexion.
Sharing second place on 8-under and waiting to pounce if the Florida Gator does slip up are Aaron Wise and thirty-six-hole leader Cameron Smith.
Wise, who will play alongside Horschel today, has - like the leader - been strong from tee to green this week but of the two preference would have to be given to the more explosive Smith.
The Players champion has struggled from tee to green this week but his short game has been a joy to watch as he has produced an exhibition of chipping and pitching from around the greens. The Aussie leads the tour this season in approach play so his struggles on this front have been a surprise this week and if he can find something on the range with his long game overnight he could yet be a factor.
In all honesty, though he, Wise and the trio of players a further shot back on 7-under - namely Daniel Berger, Francesco Molinari and Jhonattan Vegas - are all relying on some help from Horschel and in an event which has seen no one come from more than four shots back over the past decade. I'm not sure they will get that help.
Instead, I will swerve the outright market and turn to the final round two-balls for a bet, starting with KEEGAN BRADLEY who tees off alongside Jordan Spieth at 11.40am local time.
Bradley has been in a solid run of form this year with only one missed cut and three top-tens in his last five stroke play starts. This week, while he hasn’t been firing on all cylinders he has been steady once more, and having had his best day with his approach play so far this week on Saturday, he should be confident of a good final day.
Spieth, who likes to get on with things, may just find a day in the company of the meticulous Bradley not quite to his liking, and having relied heavily on the putter this week there are no guarantees it will cooperate again today.
Spieth, needless to say, is the better player. However, you really don’t know what you will get from him one day to the next at the moment, and I am happy to risk Bradley at the odds.
Alongside Bradley I will take the in-form DAVID RILEY to see off Luke List when they tee off at 12.45pm local time.
List finally got off the mark on the PGA Tour in January at Torrey Pines, but since then it has been a real struggle for him so this performance, all be it on a track which should play to his strengths, has come somewhat out of the blue.
The 37-year-old made a real hash of the 17th yesterday, though, carding a triple-bogey seven to slip out of contention, and with his confidence low at the moment he could easily slip further down the leaderboard, particularly if he can’t improve on the six fairways he found yesterday.
Riley, meanwhile, in complete contrast to List, is playing great golf week in week out at the moment and while he is also probably too far back to take the trophy, another high finish in a run that has seen him post five straight to 13 finishes beckons. Another solid 72 like yesterday could well be enough to see off List.
I’ll take Riley then as our strongest selection on the day and will also play he and Bradley in a double to look to boost profits further.
Published at 1015 BST on 05/06/22
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