Matt Cooper has selections ranging from 50/1 to 200/1 for the John Deere Classic, with a four man staking plan.
Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic
1pt e.w Doc Redman at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Scott Stallings at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Bronson Burgoon at 200/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
There’s obviously a vast gulf between punters and golfer who perform at elite level, but in one regard I often think there is a good chance we have much in common. Essentially, we both get tripped up by high expectations.
It’s not always the case but, often, when we spot a player who’s been recording nice (or improving results) prior to his return to a track he’s enjoyed success at, the equation is so tantalisingly sweet, Twitter is agog, there’s a run on his price, it all begins to look a little too neat as the week rumbles on, and said player never gets in contention.
This sunset can only mean one thing… tomorrow it’s John Deere Classic week!
— John Deere Classic (@JDCLASSIC) July 5, 2021
Photo by Abel Z. @TPCDeereRunAGR pic.twitter.com/BsQmb2gsfB
And here’s my long-winded point: I think the player is just as aware as we are. The margins are so fine. What could be perfect conditions can so easily be undermined by getting a bit too giddy.
Who hasn’t played a good round of golf and tootled off to his next game thinking he’s cracked the code, only to be swiftly humbled? But who hasn’t also later learned that the better golf was there. It just arrived when all that lofty confidence had been recalibrated.
Who is the best bet for the John Deere Classic?
I suspect this of DOC REDMAN in the last few weeks. Tied second at Congaree GC in the Palmetto Championship at the start of last month he head towards Detroit GC last week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic a popular pick because he’d finished second there in 2019 and T21st a year later when opening with a 65 for a share of the first round lead.
At Congaree he said that he’d felt the good result coming. “It's just been a lot of hard work the past few weeks,” he said. “I know I've been playing well.” He then added, of the fact he wasn’t playing the following week’s US Open: “I'm perfectly fine missing it. I think about the Travelers and Detroit (the next two stops), I’ve played well there in the past, so I'm just excited for those two weeks, to try and play well.”
His approach work was superb (ranking fourth for Strokes Gained Approach) at the Palmetto and it was still pretty good at TPC River Highlands when T61st (15th), but he missed the cut last week – his high hopes of that fortnight dashed on the rocks of so much promise.
The 2017 U.S. Walker Cup keeps getting more and more ridiculous:
— Daniel Rapaport (@Daniel_Rapaport) April 12, 2021
Collin Morikawa
Will Zalatoris
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Champ
Maverick McNealy
Doc Redman
Doug Ghim pic.twitter.com/w9vlN586wZ
I’m going to suggest that this week might reap a bounce back in the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. He’s played the track once before, when opening 69-65 to lie T11th at halfway before ending the week 72-68 for T37th. That’s a neat enough debut and I like that he ranked seventh for SG Off the Tee and 14th for SG Putting, especially when recalling the words of Zach Johnson.
“I feel like it’s a first shot and putting golf course,” he’s said. “If you get the ball in the fairway you’re attacking.” He ought to know what it takes – he’s landed six top three finishes there including victory in 2012. Redman has played well off the tee and on the greens at the course, and he’s playing well with his approaches. It might be a potent combination.
Let’s go for a repeat prescription with the Doc.
Pick number two is rather more straightforward. JHONATTAN VEGAS has been in nice form in recent times finishing tied ninth at the AT&T Byron Nelson and joining Redman in that tie for second at the Palmetto. Since then he has made the cut at the US Open, which given his past record in the majors is not exactly an achievement, but it’s better than his past base level at the top of the sport.
He’s been ranking impressively Off the Tee in that spell (regularly top 20) and his Approach rankings are, for him, not bad at all – top 30. I like that he’s got a third place at TPC Deere Run in his locker and that he’s also gained strokes on the greens in each of his last three visits.
He was also the halfway leader the last time the event was played, in 2019, and said: “If you hit your irons well here, you can score.” If he can continue to perform well tee-to-green, while maintaining good numbers with the putter on these putting surfaces, he can contend for a fourth PGA Tour win.
I’m not taking anyone favoured in the market this week. I respect Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Sungjae Im and Russell Henley, but if any of them win I won’t be headbutting the door-frame in frustration at having missed a golden opportunity at less than 20/1.
Next off the rank, then, is SCOTT STALLINGS. The 36-year-old played nicely in May without ever quite getting the job done: he was in the top 10 early in the week at Innisbrook, tied fifth after 54 holes at Quail Hollow, then third at the Byron Nelson.
He went off the boil, but carded rounds of 68 and 66, and ranked sixth for SG Approach, when T25th last week in Detroit. I also like his last four visits to the course: T16th in 2016, tied fifth in 2017 and T18th in 2019 after a missed cut. In those four starts he’s twice ranked top 10 Off the Tee, three times been top 25 for Approaches and he also said, in 2017: “I love the golf course.”
Final pick is a little leftfield and crops up off the back of a fondness I have here for good performers at Innisbrook which, like Deere Run, is an undulating track with plenty of elevation changes. In fact, since Innisbrook has hosted the PGA Tour in March, 12 of 13 Deere Run winners played there and 11 of them made the cut.
BRONSON BURGOON was T13th at the Florida course earlier this year, a result he repeated at the Byron Nelson. Alas, he’s also missed his last three cuts. But he has decent memories of the tournament. He’s played three times, always made the cut, and always been in the top 20 at halfway.
In 2018 he did much better than that. He carded a second round 62 to find himself in second and he spent the rest of the week in that position, albeit some way adrift of the unlikely runaway champion Michael Kim. He’s always gained shots in Off the Tee, Approach and Putting categories.
It wouldn’t take much of a tweak for him to contend at a juicy price.
Posted at 2115 BST on 05/07/21
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