US Open golf betting tips: Final-round preview and selections at Torrey Pines
Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau are among those in the mix in a wide-open renewal of the US Open. Ben Coley has his say on the final round.
Golf betting tips: US Open final round
3pts Rory McIlroy to win the US Open at 11/2 (General)
2pts double Shane Lowry and Si Woo Kim to win their two-balls at 9/4 (bet365, William Hill)
2pts Jhonattan Vegas to beat Charley Hoffman at 6/4 (BoyleSports)
Three rounds into the US Open, and still nobody has been able to separate themselves from the field. At halfway, it was 7/2 the favourite. Now, with just 18 holes to play at Torrey Pines, it is still 7/2 the favourite, albeit a different man heads the betting. And while the number of potential champions has probably decreased, there are still a dozen players shorter than 50/1 in one of the most competitive renewals in memory.
Between them, the three co-leaders have five PGA Tour titles and, famously, Louis Oosthuizen's contribution actually comes from the 2010 Open Championship at St Andrews. He is yet to win on US soil, despite being a staple of these Sundays for more than a decade, but after rolling in a lengthy eagle putt to complete a third-round fightback, he is the one to beat.
Russell Henley brings three wins to the table, and this fierce competitor isn't an entirely surprising candidate, for all he's typically been at his best on the east coast. Reinvigorated by improved fitness, signs of life in his putting and some short-game lessons from Larry Mize, Henley has been threatening to win his first title since 2017 for a while. Nevertheless it would've been difficult to envisage the breakthrough coming here and now.
And then there's Mackenzie Hughes, who has made relentless headway since a poor start. Badly out of form coming in, Hughes has found comfort in difficulty, his dazzling short-game and willingness to grind making this exactly the right kind of challenge. Like Henley, he is just outside the world's top 60 thanks to several close calls since his last and only PGA Tour victory, which came as a fresh-faced rookie back in 2016.
Typically, major winners have tasted success somewhere else in the recent past, but 2021 has so far gone against the grain courtesy of Hideki Matsuyama and Phil Mickelson. Oosthuizen's name would slot in nicely alongside them, whereas Hughes was 999/1 on the exchanges last Wednesday. Henley meanwhile had no form here to speak of and had seemingly gone off the boil.
My feeling is that two of the leading trio are vulnerable but not necessarily more so than their odds suggest, whereas Oosthuizen will not make this easy for those in pursuit and deserves to head the betting. I like how he stuck at it without his best stuff at Kiawah Island last month and there's a lot to be said for a player with bags of experience in this situation.
That said, the strength of this chasing pack is significant. It includes the pre-tournament favourite, Jon Rahm, who responded to some misfortune and carelessness at the 14th hole to play the rest of his round in one-under, and climb back to within three of the lead. That's the same gap he overcame to win the BMW Championship last year, the standout success of his career so far, and it's the same gap he overcame to secure his breakthrough title at this very course back in 2017.
While he still has to go out and deliver in the heat of major championship battle and would of course be more likely to win were he higher up the board, Rahm is in a predatory position which could very well suit. At 12/1, with doubts surrounding at least two of the five in front of him, the Spaniard will do for many who are looking for an each-way interest and appears to be fairly priced.
As ever, pre-tournament positions will in some way shape final-round decisions, and the conundrum for me is whether to add Rahm or RORY MCILROY to the staking plan, given that Bryson DeChambeau is already on-side. DeChambeau by the way was superb in round three, just as he was for most of round two, and while disappointing that he failed to take advantage of forward tees on two of the three par-fives, he has been bouncing in his post-round interviews and has every chance to break 70 and go close.
Although the specifics are slightly different to Winged Foot, it's clear that DeChambeau has a good game plan and if he can limit the damage when things go wrong, as he did on Saturday, he may well win. Certainly, I would be very hopeful of at least the full place return but it makes sense to add McIlroy at 11/2 in the expectation that they lay down the strongest challenge to Oosthuizen.
McIlroy played superbly for much of Saturday, bar one nasty hook at the 15th. Remarkably, he now enters the final round of a major within two of the leaders for the very first time in his career, all his success having come from the front, and all his late runs from a long way behind. Since 2014, McIlroy has started too slowly, too often, and that's why he's seldom entered the final round as one of the most likely winners, Augusta in 2018 the obvious exception.
A winner at Quail Hollow when starting the final round two adrift, his claims are similar to those of DeChambeau, and it probably suits both that they're not playing together. This is all a very long-winded way of saying I suspect one of the two might well win, but it's US Open week, and everything must therefore feel like a bit of a slog.
My view is that criticism of McIlroy's major performances should centre around how rarely he's built a platform. That job is now done at Torrey Pines, a course where he's always been comfortable, and it will be disappointing if he doesn't at least close the gap on the leaders.
What's the best two-ball bet on Sunday at the US Open?
SHANE LOWRY (1653 BST) and SI WOO KIM (1810) make for a solid two-ball double at around the 2/1 mark.
Lowry is playing beautifully at the moment and will feel like he could and perhaps should be a good deal closer to the top 10. The same was true at last month's PGA Championship, where he dazzled alongside Padraig Harrington in round four, and a similar performance can see him get the better of Kevin Kisner.
Any firming of the greens and tucking away of the pins works against flat-hitting Kisner, who doesn't much care for courses like this and has got by on his putter. Out of form for so much of the season, he's neither as good nor as well suited to the assignment than Lowry, whose performances on the big stage are also superior, and odds of 4/5 look good.
Kim is a similar price and again, he's a far better ball-striker than playing partner JT Poston. With the exception of a strong display to qualify for this a fortnight ago, Poston's form has been poor, and as you might expect he's had to rely on his short-game so far whereas Kim has been hitting it nicely.
A winner in California earlier this year and with form such as ninth at Sawgrass and 12th at Augusta to his name, he's a better player than Poston and can win this battle of the former Wyndham champions, something he's done in two of the three rounds so far.
Roll the dice with Vegas
Finally, I am drawn to JHONATTAN VEGAS to beat Charley Hoffman and he's the pick of the underdogs.
Both have some decent Torrey Pines form but it's Vegas who has gone close to winning here in the Farmers, and he might've had a chance this week but for a very poor display on the greens.
Tied first in greens hit and having gained in the region of six strokes more than Hoffman with his ball-striking, Vegas has exuded tee-to-green control throughout the week and has picked up where he left off when tied second at the Palmetto Championship last week.
Vegas has been a consistently strong finisher for several seasons now and at 6/4, I'll take my chances on one or two putts dropping.
Posted at 1045 BST on 20/06/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
More on Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
Next Off
Fixtures & Results
