We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG (expected goals) scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Aston Villa 4-0 Brentford
- Infogol xG: 3.48-1.23
- Fairness rating: 86%
- Bailey (2'), Ings (7',14' pen), Watkins (59')
Aston Villa were transformed in their first match under caretaker manager Aaron Danks following the sacking of Steven Gerrard, creating their most xG since a 2-2 draw with West Brom on April 25, 2021.
Villa failed to create more than 3.0 xG in any of Gerrard's 38 league games in charge.
Aston Villa 4-0 Brentford
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) October 23, 2022
xG: 3.48-1.23
Aaron Danks makes an instant impact; Villa never created more than 3.0 xG under Steven Gerrard.#AVFC pic.twitter.com/F1cSyLxK3w
Danks was rewarded for the boldness of his team selection, which saw captain John McGinn dropped and Philippe Coutinho left on the bench.
They did not want for balance either, allowing Brentford only one 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) when Bryan Mbeumo missed had an opportunity to make it 4-1 with 30 minutes left.
Wolves 0-4 Leicester
- Infogol xG: 1.84-0.89
- Fairness rating: 31%
- Tielemans (8'), Barnes (19'), Maddison (65'), Vardy (79')
This result saw the lowest fairness rating of this Premier League season so far after Leicester scored four times from just 0.89 xG, having only five attempts in the entire game.
According to the Infogol model there was a 1% chance of Leicester scoring four goals based on the chances created.
The Foxes have now won back-to-back matches for the first time this season, keeping clean sheets in both games.
Their midweek 2-0 win over Leeds (xG: 0.65-1.19) was another fortunate one according to expected goals, meaning Brendan Rodgers' side have scored six times from just 1.64 xG across those two victories.
Leeds Utd 2-3 Fulham
- Infogol xG: 1.86-2.53
- Fairness rating: 96%
- Rodrigo (20'), Summerville (90+1') | Mitrovic (26'), Reid (74'), Willian (84')
Fulham piled the pressure on Jesse Marsch with a deserved away win as the Leeds boss cut into odds-on favouritism to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked.
While the dissent among the Elland Road faithful may be growing louder, a closer look at the data suggests it is perhaps an overreaction.
Leeds may be winless in eight matches but the underlying numbers suggest they are far from in crisis, with the narrowing in their 10-game rolling xG (shown by the appearance of less orange on the graph) an indication that Marsch's side may be on the right track over the long-term.
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
- Infogol xG: 1.60-1.17
- Fairness rating: 70%
- Kane (54') | Wilson (31'), Almirón (40')
First-half goals from Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron gave Newcastle a 2-1 victory at Tottenham and moved them into the Premier League's top four.
Harry Kane pulled one back just after the break but the visitors rarely looked like being pegged back, seeing out the game with relative ease to move within two points of their third-placed opponents.
Newcastle's move into the Champions League places continues their remarkable rise in 39 games under Eddie Howe, who took over with the club bottom of the table last November.
Southampton 1-1 Arsenal
- Infogol xG: 0.56-1.67
- Fairness rating: 74%
- S Armstrong (65') | Xhaka (11')
Arsenal will be disappointed to have left the south coast with just a point after conceding to Southampton's only chance of greater than 6% probability in the entire game when Stuart Armstrong (0.25 xG) finished a superb team move just after the hour mark.
Gabriel Jesus will be left rueing missed opportunities just prior and after half-time (0.29 and 0.44 xG) which ultimately proved costly.
It meant Arsenal drew in the Premier League for the first time since January, a run of 28 league matches.
Chelsea 1-1 Man Utd
- Infogol xG: 1.43-0.80
- Fairness rating: 85%
- Jorginho (87' pen) | Casemiro (90+4')
Casemiro's late header rescued Man United a 1-1 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
It looked like another win for Graham Potter's side after Jorginho's late penalty, but the summer signing from Madrid struck four minutes into added time.
Both sides totalled less than one non-penalty xG in a game of low probability chances, Casemiro's superb header across goal rated at 6% by Infogol.
Aside from the penalty, Chelsea's best quality chance fell to Trevoh Chalobah (0.4 xG) in the second half, while Man United's was in the first half when they were more dominant, with Marcus Rashford having an opportunity at 0.32 xG.
Potter soon responded with a tactical change by sending on midfielder Mateo Kovacic.
The former Brighton boss will rue two dropped points late on, but he remains unbeaten since replacing Thomas Tuchel at Stamford Bridge (W5, D3), with:
- 14 goals scored from 12.6 xG
- 3 goals conceded from 8.2 xGA
- +11 goal difference from +4.4 xGD
Chelsea 1-1 Man United
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) October 22, 2022
xG: 1.43-0.80
Less than 1 non-penalty xG for both sides in a game of low-probability chances, as Casemiro rescues a late point for the visitors.#CHEMUN pic.twitter.com/AdHwaFJOMg
Man City 3-1 Brighton
- Infogol xG: 1.80-0.63
- Fairness rating: 92.97%
- Haaland (22',43' pen), De Bruyne (75') | Trossard (53')
Man City bounced back from last week's Liverpool defeat with a 3-1 home victory over Brighton.
Pep Guardiola's men closed the gap on Arsenal at the top to just a point, with Mikel Arteta's side away at Southampton on Sunday.
Erling Haaland ended his goal 'drought' - one game, failing to score v Liverpool last week - with a first-half double, one of them a penalty, to take his tally for the season to an incredible 17 goals from 11.0 xG after 11 games.
Of City's 10 attempts totalling 1.80 xG, only one of them came outside the box - and that was from Kevin De Bruyne (0.03 xG), whose 25-yard strike made it three and all but sealed the three points.
The Citizens have conceded just seven goals (5.8 xGA) in 8 home games in all competitions this season, with less than 1.5 xGA in all but one of those (Man United, below).
At the other end, they have scored 34 from 20.1 xG in that time.
It's been a tough start for Roberto De Zerbi after replacing Graham Potter at the Amex. An impressive 3-3 draw at Liverpool has been followed by defeats to Tottenham and Brentford, along with a draw v Nottingham Forest in midweek.
After this, they face their former boss at Chelsea next week.
The visitors still managed 43% possession at the Etihad, creating less than 0.6 xG. Their best quality chance, according to the Infogol model, fell to Leandro Trossard on the left of the box on 74 minutes (0.34 xG), who was denied by goalkeeper Ederson after a lung-busting run.
The Belgian had previously pulled one back early in the second half, with a powerful right-footed effort (0.03 xG) from 18 yards. He has now scored four goals in the Seagulls' visits to Anfield and the Etihad this season.
Everton 3-0 C Palace
- Infogol xG: 1.63-0.80
- Fairness rating: 71.67%
- Calvert-Lewin (11'), Gordon (63'), McNeil (84')
Everton ended a three-game winless run with a 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace.
There was just a 6.4% chance of this scoreline based on xG data. Three goals scored (1.63 xG) and a clean sheet will please Frank Lampard after recent defeats to Newcastle, Tottenham & Man United, easing any potential sack race talk.
All three goals were rated above 25% probability - Dominic Calvert-Lewin was on the score sheet on 11 minutes (0.28 xG), before Anthony Gordon (0.74%) and Dwight McNeil (0.32). A stroll in Goodison Park as they equalled their biggest Premier League win in two years.
Patrick Vieira's Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have not won away from home this season and they created low probability chances from nine shots here, with Michael Olise (0.21 xG) having their best quality opportunity in the box early in the second half.
Nottm Forest 1-0 Liverpool
- Infogol xG: 2.51-2.45
- Fairness rating: 70.26%
- Awoniyi (55')
Nottingham Forest ended a 10-game winless Premier League run with a huge 1-0 victory over Liverpool at the City Ground.
Taiwo Awoniyi's second-half strike from close range beat Alisson Becker after his initial effort rebounded off the post - against his former side of six years.
Liverpool failed to score from a total of 15 attempts, four of them rated as big chances (+0.35 xG) - two falling to Virgil van Dijk in added time - as England goalkeeper Dean Henderson made some big saves.
The curse of the early kick-off? Jurgen Klopp is infamously not a fan of them and the German boss was baffled that his side failed to take those chances, but it will also be at the other end which is of equal concern.
Steve Cooper's side won the xG battle, with an impressive 2.51 - and that was the fourth time in five games that the Merseysiders have conceded more than 2 xG in a game, the only exception being last week's Anfield win over Man City.
On the other side, it was just the second time this season that Forest have created more than 2 xG in a game.
