Premier League tips: Best bets for every game
Our Sporting Life football team select a best bet for every Premier League game across the final day's action. Don't miss their picks.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool -1.5 Asian handicap to beat Southampton at 51/50 (bet365)
2pts Tom Cairney to have 2+ shots in Manchester United v Fulham at 17/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Leicester to beat West Ham at 49/50 (BetUK)
1.5pts Over Arsenal 18.5 shots v Wolves at 9/10 (Unibet, BetUK)
1.5pts Brentford or Draw double chance v Manchester City at evens (General)
1pt Alexander Isak to be carded in Chelsea v Newcastle at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt Aston Villa most corners v Brighton at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Renan Lodi to commit 2+ fouls in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Both Teams to Score in the First Half in Leeds v Tottenham at 13/5 (LiveScoreBet)
1pt Jordan Pickford to be shown a card in Everton v Bournemouth at 13/2 (bet365)
- Selected tips only - read full match previews for all selections
Arsenal v Wolves
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Arsenal 1/3 | Draw 9/2 | Wolves 7/1
Liam Kelly (@LiamKellyTTA)
With the Premier League title no longer a possibility, Arsenal can end their terrific season with a bounce back performance in front of a home crowd that has supported them during the good and the bad.
Wolves have been poor under Julen Lopetegui despite securing survival and have allowed expected goals against (xGA) totals of 3.23, 1.76, 2.93, 2.59 across their last four.
Now the pressure of the title race over, I expect to see an Arsenal display that resembles their early season form rather than their tame finish.
OVER 18.5 ARSENAL SHOTS makes appeal at a price of 9/10 in places.
Arsenal have averaged 17.88 shots per game at home this season, breaching the 18.5 line on 10 of 18 league matches at the Emirates.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1800 BST (25/05/23)
Aston Villa v Brighton
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Aston Villa Evs | Draw 29/10 | Brighton 23/10
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
While Brighton have already secured their Europa League berth, Aston Villa must win this final-day encounter to ensure European football returns to Villa Park for the first time in more than a decade.
The Seagulls might have nothing to play for but they have proven this season they are formidable opposition whatever the situation and there are plenty of other teams Villa would rather be facing.
Regardless, the initiative will be with ASTON VILLA in front of a fervently expectant Villa Park faithful and I think they have been priced very favourably in the MOST CORNERS market – 11/8 to Brighton’s 4/5.
That’s likely because Brighton have averaged comfortably more corners per game than Villa this season (6.19-4.32) but that fails to take into account two important factors.
The first is the considerable differential between Brighton’s average corner count at home (7.47) and away (4.83), while the second is the previously-mentioned game state at play here.
Villa’s home corner count in recent weeks has been 8, 8, 7, 1 and 9 – the low anomaly coming against Nottingham Forest – while Brighton have mustered just three corners across their last two away trips.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1445 BST (25/05/23)
Brentford v Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Brentford 3/1 | Draw 29/10 | Manchester City 4/5
James Cantrill (@JimmythePunt)
The final day sees BRENTFORD host Manchester City and as neither have anything to play for, this one has a whiff of chaos.
Arsenal’s tail off, combined with City’s hot streak, meant Pep Guardiola’s men had the title wrapped up with two games to spare.
The Citizens are two finals away from completing a treble, and with the FA Cup and Champions League final on the horizon, Pep will most likely rotate here.
That was the case for last weekend's fixture with Chelsea, where City made nine changes, and there is certainly a case to be made that the Bees are a much better side then the Blues.
In midweek, City drifted significantly for their trip to the south coast, rumour had it that Scott Carson may even start in goal. Ultimately, that proved to be false, and despite a star-studded XI, City only managed a draw against Brighton and lost the xG battle.
With Brentford only dropping points in two of their 18 domestic home games this campaign, siding with them to WIN OR DRAW in the DOUBLE CHANCE market appeals here.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct 1630 BST (25/05/23)
Chelsea v Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Chelsea 19/10 | Draw 5/2 | Newcastle 13/10
James Cantrill (@JimmythePunt)
There are some big prices in the player card market for this clash at Stamford Bridge, it must be the last day, dead rubber tax.
I cannot resist the 10/1 about ALEXANDER ISAK TO BE SHOWN A CARD though.
The big Swede is best known for his goal scoring exploits, not his cynical card record, but the frontman picks up plenty of bookings.
Isak was carded in his side's last game, his third of the campaign, which does not sound like a lot but it is worth noting Newcastle’s record signing has only started 16 games.
Over the last five seasons, Isak has notched up 16 cards, that’s 0.19 per 90 suggesting there is plenty of juice in that 10/1.
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (26/05/23)
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Crystal Palace 4/6 | Draw 3/1 | Nottingham Forest 19/5
Liam Kelly (@LiamKellyTTA)
Crystal Palace have had fun in recent weeks, assuring safety with an attacking style that perhaps wasn’t expected when Roy Hodgson returned.
It suits their players, however, with the likes of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise shining. The latter makes RENAN LODI TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS of interest at 5/4.
Olise is fifth in the Premier League for attempted take-ons and eighth for fouls drawn, a fantastic dribbler that will test Nottingham Forest’s left side.
Lodi has been deployed at left wing-back recently, so it’s easy to see him committing fouls a bit higher up the pitch in less dangerous areas.
Indeed, his tackle and fouls conceded rate has gone up since Forest moved to a three-at-the-back system.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct 1430 BST (26/05/23)
Everton v Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Everton 4/9 | Draw 7/2 | Bournemouth 11/2
Read James Cantrill's (@JimmythePunt) full preview here
Given the circumstances, it would be foolish not to tout JORDAN PICKFORD TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Only Emi Martinez can rival Everton’s shot stopper when it comes to gamesmanship, the former picking up seven cards and the latter five.
The hosts need to win, their odds imply they have a 69% chance of doing so and if they get their noses in front, Pickford will pull out all the stops.
His five bookings this campaign take his career tally to 23, showcasing his impressive repertoire.
Not all of his cards are for time wasting antics though, England’s number one has picked up a booking for an argument this season, he is also prone to rash tackle or a head loss.
Given the magnitude of the game, siding with the occasion overwhelming him seems logical, regardless of the outcome.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1215 BST (26/05/23)
Leeds v Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: BT Sport 1
- Leeds 17/10 | Draw 11/4 | Tottenham 11/8
Read Michael Beardmore's (@MickeyBeardmore) full preview here
The hosts haven’t won in eight, while Spurs are winless in nine on their travels – Leeds’ need is greater but trying to pick the winner here is like pinning the tail on a donkey so poor have both sides been recently.
Indeed, Leeds have been defending like they are blindfolded this season, conceding a whopping division-high 74 goals but also scoring a respectable 47 which is why BTTS is unbackably heavily odds-on.
Instead, you’re better backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN THE FIRST HALF which is an incredibly inviting 13/5.
It’s happened in almost half, 44%, of Leeds’ home games this season and even in two of three overall since supposedly defensive-minded boss Sam Allardyce took over.
In addition, 41% of Spurs’ matches this term have seen over 1.5 goals in the first half – the fact the hosts have to win but have kept just two first-half shutouts in 10 games bodes well here, considering the odds on offer.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1715 BST (24/05/23)
Leicester v West Ham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Leicester 10/11 | Draw 11/4 | West Ham 11/4
Read Jake Osgathorpe's (@JAKEOZZ) full preview here
Leicester know that a win here against West Ham coupled with Everton failing to beat Bournemouth, would see them stay up. Now, that's easier said than done for a side who have won just one of their last 15, but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic if you are a Leicester fan, and if you are a bettor, with LEICESTER TO WIN the main selection.
Goals are obviously needed if they are to win here, and chance creation isn't an area where the Foxes are lacking under Dean Smith, averaging 2.07 xGF per game since his arrival, racking up 2.94 (v Wolves), 2.34 (v Leeds) and 3.06 (v Everton) when playing bottom-half teams. West Ham are a bottom half team, and while they are better than the teams listed above, context is needed ahead of this game.
The Hammers are in a European final, playing against Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League, so should rotate in a bid to keep players fresh and avoid injuries to key starters.
Also, David Moyes' men have been a joke away from home of late. They have lost their last three on the road, conceding nine times and shipping 9.1 xGA - 3.03 per game. You do get sides that, towards the end of the season, effectively switch off in away games and focus their attentions on playing well at home.
Score prediction: Leicester 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1455 BST (26/05/23)
Manchester United v Fulham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Manchester United 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Fulham 19/4
James Cantrill (@JimmythePunt)
TOM CAIRNEY has started his side's last four games and his price to have 2+ SHOTS appeals at Old Trafford.
He bagged a brace in an eight goal thriller against Leicester, racking up seven shots over those appearances.
The midfielder has hit this line five times domestically this campaign, with this bet clicking in 80% of his starts.
Manchester United have been imperious at home but have shipped 11.1 shots per game with four of Chelsea’s hitting two or more shots in midweek.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1505 BST (26/05/23)
Southampton v Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Southampton 13/2 | Draw 9/2 | Liverpool 1/3
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
Southampton’s miserable season comes to an end at St Mary’s on Sunday and any hopes of finishing a sorry campaign on a high are surely pie in the sky against a buoyant Liverpool outfit.
While Saints have gone down with a whimper, losing nine of their past 11, the Reds have come on strong – even if seven wins in an unbeaten 10-game run won’t be enough to break into the top four.
Jurgen Klopp’s men are also saying goodbye to some Liverpool legends including Roberto Firmino and James Milner, and they will want to do so with a typically free-scoring display.
Despite the Reds’ perceived struggles this term, only the top two have scored more than Liverpool’s 71 goals.
In recent weeks, they pummelled Leeds 6-1 at Elland Road and strolled to a 3-0 win at Leicester – and it does not take much of a leap of the imagination to see them doing similar here.
Saints have lost 4-1 to Spurs, 4-0 and 4-1 to Manchester City, 3-1 twice to Brighton, 4-1 and 3-1 to Newcastle, 3-0 and 2-0 to Brentford and 3-1 to Liverpool this season.
It all makes slightly odds-against prices on LIVERPOOL (-1.5 HANDICAP) – meaning they need to win by two or more goals – look huge considering the jump from the likes of 1/3 just to triumph by any score.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-4 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct 1650 BST (25/05/23)
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