James Cantrill picks out six stats to back in the World Cup third place play-off between Croatia and Morocco - including a recommended 17/2 fourfold.
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- Under 2.5 goals
- Hakim Ziyech 2+ shots
- Achraf Hakimi 3+ tackles
- Ivan Perisic 3+ shots
BACK OUR 17/2 BUILDABET WITH SKY BET
What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Croatia 48% | Draw 28% | Morocco 22%
- Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 42% | Under 58%
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Yes 46% | No 54%
Under 2.5 goals
This is a bet that clicked when these sides met in the group stages and one that has landed in 50% of the Croatian's World Cup matches.
The Moroccan's route to the semi's was one built on defensively solidarity as they re-wrote the underdog narrative, with two or fewer goals scored in each of their games bar the one against Canada.
Hakim Ziyech 2+ shots
Hakim Ziyech tops his sides charts for shots per game (1.3) and notched up two in each of the Atlas Lions three group stage games.
In his nations more tentative approach to the knock-out stages, the shooting chances dried up, but with the pressure off here he should get amply opportunity.
Achraf Hakimi 3+ tackles
Archef Hakimi has been a stand out performer for this Moroccan side.
Perhaps his most noteworthy contribution was the decisive penalty he chipped down the middle against Spain, I do not no what was more audacious, that or the dance he did immediately after.
Defensively, no player from any nation can top his average of 3.8 tackles per game.
He has only failed to complete at least three on one occasion, against Portugal, though it is worth noting he attempted four that evening.
Ivan Perisic 3+ shots
One more goal makes Ivan Perisic his nations all time leading goalscorer at World Cups, and with that in mind it would be very harsh for Zlatko Dalic to drop him here.
With that accolade in touching distance, you would imagine Perisic will opt for a shoot on site approach at the Khalifa International Stadium.
He has averaged 2.7 shots per game, hitting this line of three in each of his last three appearances.
Sofyan Amrabat 3+ tackles
Sofyan Amrabat has been an apsolute colossus at the heart of the Atlas Lions midfield.
The Fiorentina man has averaged 2.5 tackles in Qatar, hitting this line in 50% of his appearances, and will have his work cut out opposing Luka Modric and co in the engine room.
Dejan Lovren 1+ shots
Dejan Lovren has averaged exactly one shot per game this winter, hitting three against Argentina and one when these sides met in the group stages.
He's 6/4 to have one on Saturday, which boosts the big bet builder to 50/1.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (15/12/22)
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