History makers Morocco meet Portugal in the quarter finals of the World Cup. James Cantrill highlights six stats to include in a BuildABet.
- Under 2.5 goals
- Achraf Hakimi 3+ tackles
- Sofyan Amrabat to be carded
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What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Morocco 16% | Draw 24% | Portugal 60%
- Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 44% | Under 56%
- Both teams to score (BTTS): Yes 45% | No 55%
Under 2.5 goals
Morocco's game plan for the last 16 was pretty simple, do not concede and hold your nerve in the penalty shoot-out and this was executed to perfection.
For those who did not see the game, the following statistic depicts the dynamic very well. The entirety of the 16 players that played for Morocco combined to complete 216 passes. Rodri, Spain's CB, completed 207, just seven less.
Since Walid Regragui took charge of The Atlas Lions, an opposition player is yet to score against the North African's, and that includes those three penalties Spain took in the last round.
If they are going to stand any chance of reaching the semi's, then they must follow this blueprint, which is why I cannot see this clash been rife with goals.
Achraf Hakimi 3+ tackles
Madrid-born Achraf Hakimi scored the decisive penalty in the shoot-out sending Spain home with an audacious Panenka.
Morocco's main man showed nerves of steal from the spot, though it is he tackling exploits that interest me here with the PSG's man averaging 4.3 per game, a total no player of any team can best in Qatar.
He has completed 17 in total, hitting this line in each of his four appearances.
Sofyan Amrabat card
Soyfan Amrabat has been an absolute colossus in the heart of Morocco's midfield.
He tops there charts for passes (41.3) and interceptions (1.5), he averages 2.5 tackles and, crucially for this angle, two fouls per game.
He has one card to his name in this World Cup but that will get wiped after this game, so, he does not have to worry about a suspension if his nation progresses.
It is also worth noting that he has accumulated seven bookings in 13 Serie A appearances this season, making him the most carded player in the division.
Joao Felix 1+ assists
Joao Felix was one of the standout performers during his nations 6-1 demolition of Switzerland.
Pundit, Nigel De Jong, said the performance reminded him of the way Kaka used to play and considering the Portuguese man glided around the pitch it isn't hard to see where he is coming from.
Felix assisted two goals and played a crucial role in the other which is why the 5/1 about him to register another assist looks large.
Bruno Fernandes 4+ shots
Bruno Fernandes has had a direct hand in five goals, scored and averaging two shots per game in Qatar.
Somewhat surprisingly, all of those shots (6) came against Uruguay and with Morocco expected to deploy similar tactics to their South American counterparts, Fernandes should hit a high tally at the Al Thumama Stadium.
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (08/12/22)
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