Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
1pt e.w. Max Kilman to score first at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
BuildABet @ 20/1
- Max Kilman 1+ shots on target
- West Ham 6+ corners
- Mohammed Kudus 2+ shots on target
As much as I'd love to possess the ability to become a Premier League manager, I don't, which means I'm forced to simply 'imagining' what certain scenarios would feel like.
And while I may not be at a level of fielding a side in England's top-flight, I can easily imagine it's not a particularly pleasant feeling going into a contest that has been given the tag 'El Sackico'.
West Ham meet Wolves with both sides desperate for victory. The visitors are 19th in the Premier League table while West Ham are slightly more comfortable in 14th.
You learn at times like these which squads actually like their manager. The ones who know they've underperformed and the subsequent importance of a positive result here. A lack of effort speaks volumes.
I don't think anyone can quite work out the Hammers. They've actually been a solid side in attack and should have comfortably beaten Leicester last time out. Football doesn't work like that though, they lost 3-1.
It's winner stays on for the managers - that should be Julen Lopetegui at full-time.
What are the best bets?
You could therefore make a case on the near even money for a home win. But then, can you really trust either of these sides?
Results haven't arrived in the way we expected for West Ham following an eye-catching summer and, even playing a poor team, it's a tough outright market to get involved with.
Instead, this looks like a contest for a big play, so I'll go each-way on MAX KILMAN TO SCORE FIRST at 40/1.
The centre-back returns to face his former side on the back of a performance against Leicester which delivered two shots, both of which were on target.
Wolves have many problems this season and defending set-pieces is a big one. They've conceded a league-high 11 goals as a result of corners and free-kicks.
I'd expect West Ham to see the better of the chances, meaning Kilman should see some opportunities from corners.
The Hammers are middle of the pack when it comes to attacking set-pieces and that's fine for this contest - they're 12th in terms of the expected goals (xG) created at these situations.
An opposition centre-back has had at least one shot against Wolves in three of their last five too. Both of Palace's goals in the 2-2 draw in November were a result of set-pieces.
In what may well be a nervy game given the potential consequences, a corner could be the difference.
Team news
Edson Álvarez is suspended for the hosts following his fifth yellow card of the season in the defeat at Leicester. Forward Michail Antonio has undergone surgery on a lower-limb fracture following a road traffic accident on Saturday.
Centre-back Jean-Clair Todibo missed that game through injury and may be sidelined once again on Monday night.
For Wolves, they are still without winger Enso González and centre-back Yerson Mosquera. Sasa Kalajdzic and Boubacar Traoré are also out.
Gary O'Neil may opt for changes following a 4-0 hammering at Everton last time out, although he doesn't have a huge squad to choose from.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham XI: Fabianski; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kilman, Emerson; Soucek, Soler; Bowen, Paqueta, Kudus; Fullkrug.
Wolves XI: Sa; Semedo, Bueno, Dawson, Ait-Nouri; Gomes, Lemina, Andre; Cunha, Larsen, Guedes.
Match facts
- West Ham have won their last four Premier League home games against Wolves, keeping a clean sheet each time. In their league history, only twice have they won five in a row at home without conceding against an opponent – vs Coventry (1919 to 1937) and Wolves (1920 to 1958).
- Wolves won their first four Premier League games against West Ham following their return to the division in 2018, but have since lost six of their last eight against the Hammers (W2).
- West Ham have won their last six Premier League home games played on a Monday, netting 2+ goals each time. Their last such defeat was in December 2019 against Arsenal (1-3).
- Each of Wolves’ last five Premier League games played on a Monday have come away from home (W2 D1 L2), with Gary O’Neil winless in his three such games in charge of the Wanderers (D1 L2).
- West Ham have conceded 71 goals in 33 Premier League games so far in 2024 – it’s their most league goals conceded in a single calendar year since 1976 (73 in 38 games).
- Wolves have won four of their last six Premier League games in London (L2) after going winless in 14 straight such away trips between February 2022 and December 2023 (D3 L11).
- Wolves have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this season, shipping 36 times in their 14 games. Their last two games have seen them lose 4-2 to Bournemouth and 4-0 to Everton – they last shipped 4+ goals in three consecutive league games in September 1985.
- West Ham’s Julen Lopetegui will be just the second manager to face Wolves in the Premier League having previously managed the club in the competition after Nuno Espírito Santo (W1 D2); his only previous experience of this fixture saw him win 1-0 at home with Wolves against the Hammers in January 2023.
- Against no side has West Ham United’s Jarrod Bowen scored more Premier League goals than Wolves (5 – level with Brentford) with four of his five strikes against them coming at home, also his joint-favourite opponent to face at the London Stadium in the competition.
- In last season’s Premier League, Wolves’ José Sá had the best goals prevented numbers of any keeper based on Opta’s expected goals on target faced metric (8.2 – 65.2 xGoT faced, 57 goals conceded). Based on the same metric this season, the Portuguese has conceded five goals more than expected (16 xGoT faced, 21 goals conceded).
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (06/12/24)
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