Mark O'Haire's tips: Liverpool v Manchester City
Mark O'Haire's tips: Aston Villa v Fulham

Super Sunday betting tips: Aston Villa v Fulham best bets and preview


After banking several Super Sunday winners in March, Mark O'Haire returns with his best bets for April's opening instalment as Aston Villa host Fulham.


Football betting tips: Aston Villa v Fulham

1pt Aston Villa to win by exactly one goal (31/10 SportNation, RedZone)

1pt Ollie Watkins to have 1+ headed shot on-target (3/1 Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Aston Villa were looking forward to the international break more than most.

Dean Smith’s men, who survived by a single point last season and didn’t know whether they would be a Premier League side until the very final seconds of the longest campaign in history, were never expected to mount an assault anywhere close to the European qualification positions.

But the Villans produced a terrific run of results before the turn of the year, collecting 26 points (W8-D2-L5) and occupying fifth place as the New Year arrived.

This was a team comfortable in their own skin, confident and brave on the ball, as well as organised, resolute and physical when possession turned over. Villa were awkward, competent and capable.


Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday

TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League

Home 5/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 23/10


Will Jack Grealish be back for Aston Villa?

However, a haul of 15 points from their following 15 games has halted progress and fears from early in the year — like what happens when Jack Grealish misses games, and how Villa can go through a full season with just one proven striker — have now been laid bare after a series of key injuries and a lack of rotation from Smith.

In 2021 alone, Aston Villa have posted W4-D3-L7. Only six sides have collected fewer points per game over the same period and more recently the Second City outfit have taken top honours just once in seven Premier League outings, scoring only three goals.

Premier League: Today's best bets and tips
Click here for Premier League: Today's best bets and tips

Of course, injury to Grealish has contributed to the downturn and having the influential skipper back for Sunday’s showdown will be a huge boost to Villa’s output.

And while the likes of Ollie Watkins and John McGinn haven’t had a huge opportunity to rest during the international window, the majority of the squad have enjoyed a degree of downtime.

Despite the recent lean spell, Smith’s side have continued to produce strong defensive numbers and so the refresh, alongside Villa’s impressive collection of 14 clean sheets from 28 league outings, suggests now could be the time the tide turns in the hosts’ favour.

Fulham are the value bet for relegation ahead of the run-in
Click here for our Premier League relegation best bets

What are Fulham's chances at Villa Park?

Visitors Fulham have earned plenty of plaudits for playing their way back into survival contention, particularly since December. The Cottagers have been turned over only six times in 18 encounters – against Chelsea, Leicester, Man Utd, Man City, Spurs and Leeds – with Scott Parker’s outfit showing a stubborn side that was absent during earlier months.

Parker has overhauled his defence, integrating summer signings, and given the capital club a platform to compete. Unfortunately for Fulham, their creation and conversion of clear-cut opportunities has continued to fall below Premier League standards and, thus, collecting maximum points from key fixtures has proven a tall order during that upswing (W3-D10-L7).

Clearly the draw is therefore a runner at Villa Park although I’m expecting a returning Grealish to provide the X-Factor that’s been missing in the hosts’ attacking arsenal in recent weeks in what’s anticipated to be a tight affair. Backing VILLA TO WIN BY EXACTLY ONE GOAL can be backed at bulbous 31/10 (SportNation, RedZone) quotes (3/1 Bet365, 11/4 generally) and that’s worthy of a wager.

Bruno Fernandes is a value bet in the Golden Boot market
Click here for our best bets in the Golden Boot race

Fulham have been turned over by two or more goals just five times since promotion and Manchester City were responsible for two of those losses. In fact, if we exclude the runaway champions, the Cottagers have lost by exactly one goal in eight of their most recent nine Premier League losses dating back to September.

Elsewhere, the 3/1 available with Sky Bet on OLLIE WATKINS HAVING A HEADED SHOT ON TARGET also appeals.

The England international averages 0.80 headed attempts per game with 29% of his overall efforts arriving via the head – above average figures borne out by Villa’s penchant for crossing. Indeed, only Liverpool have attempted more crosses this term.


Aston Villa v Fulham best bets and score prediction

  • Aston Villa to win by exactly one goal (31/10 SportNation, RedZone)
  • Ollie Watkins to have 1+ headed shot on-target (3/1 Sky Bet)

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 17:55 BST (01/04/21)


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