Premier League Golden Boot odds: Bruno Fernandes and Jamie Vardy worth backing
With Manchester City 14 points clear at the top it seems the Premier League is destined for yet another one-horse race.
Sure, watching a world class side cruise past opponents week after week sounds fun, but people don’t fall in love with the team-game ethos, football is about individuals.
Imagine a trophy that puts two fingers up to the win-at-all-cost completionists, instead ranking what we all love to see - goals.
Oh, and that said competition seemingly always goes down to the wire. Ladies and gents, welcome to the Premier League Golden Boot.
Premier League Top Scorer (odds via Sky Bet):
- Harry Kane - 11/8
- Mohamed Salah - 7/4
- Bruni Fernandes - 11/2
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 18/1
- Jamie Vardy - 28/1
Odds correct at 16:38 GMT (28/03/21)
Why should I care about the Golden Boot?
Five of the last six Premier League champions have won the title by at least seven points, guaranteeing silverware months in advance. This season is set to be the third in four where it's been an utter procession.
No 'title race' or 'battle', nothing to get tense about on the last day of the season. But here, we love a close call.
Last year Jamie Vardy edged clear by one goal to beat Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings. The season before Aubamayang and Sadio Mane both scored two on the final day to finish in a three-way tie with Mohamed Salah.
Not only does the Golden Boot race regularly go down to the final kick, it’s just as caught up in the mystique of a title battle.
For every Kevin Keegan rant, Harry Kane is trying to claim a goal off one of his teammates. After Leicester-like miracles? How about Kevin Phillips slotting home 30 for Sunderland?
As this season draws to a close, expect the pressure to rise.
Who will inherit penalty duties as Ings did last season, only to fluff their lines? How many more shots will Salah take on when a pass was the better option?
And the goal accreditation panel will be sent into overdrive, with a supporting witnesses from the opposition defence; no-one wants an OG on their record anyway.
Who will win the Premier League Golden Boot?
Premier League scoring charts ahead of April 5 fixtures:
- Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah - 17
- Bruno Fernandes - 16
- Patrick Bamford, Dominic Calvert-Lewin - 14
- Son Heung-Min - 13
- Jamie Vardy, Ilkay Gündogan - 12
Ahead of the run-in, the top eight goalscorers are separated by just five goals. Salah hunting his third title. But he, or any of the next seven names on the leaderboard could snatch the crown.
With numbers so tight it’s hard to know who to back. Bruno Fernandes could score a hat-trick of penalties in his next match and he’ll suddenly have a two-goal cushion.
This is where the Infogol expected goals (xG) model really comes into its own.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Every shot, slice, blast and whack aimed towards the target has an xG figure.
A striker shooting with his back to goal, on his weaker foot, from miles out will have a very low chance of scoring, so the xG for such a shot would be something like 0.05.
That means for every 100 attempts in that exact scenario, only five are likely to go in. For contrast, Raheem Sterling’s open-goal miss against Lyon in last year’s Champions League had an xG of 0.87.
What this table tells us is that Salah, Harry Kane and Fernandes are overachieving - they should have scored fewer goals according to xG.
For Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Patrick Bamford, it's the opposite.
Heung-min Son and İlkay Gündoğan also fall into the overachieving category, while Jamie Vardy has scored fewer than would be expected based on the chances he has been on the end of.
You can read these discrepancies several ways. Either your overachiever is extremely clinical, making the most of the chances he is presented with, or your underachiever is where the true quality lies, continuously getting in the best scoring positions with wonder saves and last-ditch blocks denying him a hatful.
I like to side with the latter.
Finishing is a crucial skill for a goalscorer, but you’d be nowhere without the intelligence to get in the right position to bury your chance. Vardy topping the xG/95 charts tells me the former England striker is a dark horse to make a late goal-scoring run.
He has netted just once in his last six Premier League games, but because he consistently gets provided with clear-cut chances, one goal could easily be the catalyst for a purple patch.
Who should I back to finish top scorer?
Nearly all bookies offer each-way terms at 1/3 odds, paying out on a second-placed finish.
At 40/1 in places JAMIE VARDY certainly offers the best outside chance in this volatile race. Catching up five goals in the nine remaining games is tricky, but hardly out of the question.
Leicester are out of the European League, allowing Vardy to be at full fitness when they face struggling quartet West Brom, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Newcastle in the coming weeks.
Realistically, though, we may be looking at the 13/1 place money - which still feels like it's worth a whirl.
What about for the outright win? Current real goals leaders Kane and Salah, both chasing a third golden boot, are at 2/1.
But despite being only one goal behind, BRUNO FERNANDES' odds jump to 13/2.
Sure, the Manchester United man isn’t a striker, but if not Bruno, who’s finding the net for the club that has scored the second-most goals in the league?
With United now out of the FA Cup and getting a favourable draw in the Europa League, I expect Fernandes to play almost every remaining Premier League minute this season.
He’s Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s go to guy and with forward Marcus Rashford struggling through injury, incredibly he’s scored more than three times as many as any other fully-fit Manchester United player.
Fernandes netted eight times in his final 10 games last season, a similar run would give punters a hell of a chance at a tidy price.
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