1pt Jannik Vestergaard to score a header at 16/1 (Unibet)
0.5pts Patrick Bamford to assist Raphinha and Raphinha to assist Bamford at 80/1 (Sky Bet)
With both having key figures missing in defence, it could well become a high-scoring game and the one bet that really stands out at a huge 80/1 is PATRICK BAMFORD TO ASSIST RAPHINHA AND RAPHINHA TO ASSIST BAMFORD. The duo have become the stars of this Leeds attack.
Bamford's Premier League form has led to shouts for an England call-up and he's shown little issue in adjusting to the step up from the Sky Bet Championship. He has 12 goals and six assists in 24 appearances this season, and, providing he stays fit, he has every chance of reaching 20 goals for the campaign.
Those six assists are interesting. Five of them are from open play (the other being a penalty won against West Ham) while four have been for wingers. 80% of his open play assists this season have been to either Helder Costa, Jack Harrison or Raphinha and he assisted the Brazilian in the recent home game against Everton.
The game before, Raphinha provided the assist for Bamford in the 3-1 win away at Leicester. He is on four goals and five assists in 19 appearances this season, although he was a substitute in three of those. His set-piece delivery is lethal but he can also create from open play and that will only benefit a forward like Bamford.
While Leeds have become a threat at attacking set-pieces, there remains a big issue with defending them. That will create a mismatch in this area with Southampton having James Ward-Prowse and JANNIK VESTERGAARD on the pitch. No team has conceded more than Leeds at set-pieces this season, while only West Ham have scored more than the Saints from these situations.
Only Edinson Cavani and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have scored more headed goals than Vestergaard this season, all three have come via headers from set-pieces. It's also worth remembering how he missed seven league games with a knee injury and has only recently returned.
He struck the bar in the draw with Chelsea last time out while he had two shots in their last away game (defeat at Newcastle). Leeds have conceded to a number of centre-backs this season and they will be worried about Vestergaard's presence in Southampton's attacking situations. Unibet have him at 16/1, while Sky Bet have 14s available, and that looks too generous given the mismatch here.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (22/02/21)
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