Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Adam Wharton to win 2+ fouls in Palace vs Forest at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Wharton to be shown a card at 9/2 (bet365)
1.5pts Thierno Barry to score anytime in Hull vs Everton at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Barry to score a header at 17/2 (bet365)
Jair Cunha (Forest) 1+ shots on target from outside box at 20/1 (bet365)
Nobel Mendy (Hull) 1+ shots on target from outside box at 18/1 (bet365)
*All games kick off at 14:00 BST
Just to kick off, between us we're moonlighting for Jake's Predictions this week. Before he jetted off he wrote up an interesting piece on how much of an increase there has been in long-range shooting in the Premier League this season, especially from distance, and especially from centre-backs.
So bullish is he that instead of enjoying some time on the sunloungers he sent me a screenshot of his betslip backing four different defenders to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX this weekend, two of whom feature in the games covered in this article.
Nottingham Forest's JAIR CUNHA and Hull's NOBEL MENDY are a respective 20/1 and 18/1.
The two other centre-backs in question are Manchester United's LISANDRO MARTINEZ (16/1) and GABRIEL MAGALHAES (28/1) of Arsenal. If you're reading before Saturday's action, maybe they're of interest. If they've already played maybe they delivered and it backs up this well thought out theory.
These aren't my bets though, so if they don't come in the loss will be settled on Jake's record and if they win I take the profit. Only fair.
Anyway, on to the games...
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner is by far the most successful manager in Crystal Palace history and yet he may well get booed on Sunday. What a game.
It's been a mixed start at his new club, with Forest struggling at home and thriving away.
It makes sense that the bookies can't split these teams (both 13/8) as Palace have been an interesting follow so far under new boss Pierre Sage.
Wide open in their first four league games, conceding 12 goals and breaking records for the number of touches opposition were having in their box, they have since recorded back-to-back clean sheets against Lech Poznan (4-0) and in an abomination of a goalless draw with Leeds where to their credit they met the physical challenge of Daniel Farke's team head on.
ADAM WHARTON has been key to those improved defensive performances.
His only booking in his final 15 games of last season came in the Conference League final. He then didn't make a single foul in Palace's opening five matches, failing to win a tackle in three of those.
Three fouls, three tackles won and one card have come in his last two outings and at 9/2 TO BE SHOWN CARD he is worth backing to return to the more regular number of bookings we saw in the first two thirds of 25/26, where he picked up nine in 35 starts.
Another feature of his performances has been opposition targeting him.
It makes sense that Palace's continued policy of selling their best players and Wharton's resultant growing influence has increased the focus on him. The midfielder didn't WIN 2+ FOULS in any of his final 12 league appearances last season, hitting that line seven times in 34 games in total.
This term it has happened in all of his first five matches, even when he hasn't completed 90 minutes, which makes the 11/8 of interest.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Hull vs Everton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
There was uproar among Everton fans when the transfer window closed, primarily because of their failure to sign a striker.
Having showed flashes of potential in his first season at the club THIERNO BARRY has transformed this term. He scored just eight times from chances equating to 8.42 expected goals (xG) in 41 appearances in 25/26. Seven matches into this campaign he has five goals from 6.55 xG.
Of those to have played 200+ top-flight minutes only Erling Haaland (0.89) and Alexander Isak (0.77) are averaging higher than his 0.75 xG per 90.
Newly-promoted Hull have made a great start but after winning their opening two games are winless in four in all competitions (D2 L2). That does include credible draws with Aston Villa and Chelsea so opposing them is risky, but backing BARRY TO SCORE ANYTIME at 2/1 gets this unbeaten Everton team (W4 D3 all competitions) onside in some way.
The Frenchman is also taken TO SCORE A HEADER at 15/2.
Nine of his 17 attempts in the league have been headers, with 49% of his xG coming that way.
He has scored twice in the top flight so far - one header, and one inventive finish with his chest to divert a shot in against Ipswich, a match in which he also had a headed goal controversially disallowed for offside.
Score prediction: Hull 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (8/10/26)
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