Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton to score 1+ goals in the first-half vs Sunderland at 10/11 (General)
1.75pts Over 27.5 match shots in Ipswich vs Fulham at 11/8 (bet365)
1.5pts Over 11.5 corners in Chelsea vs Bournemouth at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 13/8 (General)
0.75pt Brighton to score 2+ goals in the first-half vs Sunderland at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm torn in my opinion of Aston Villa here. A much-needed Premier League victory came over struggling Spurs just before the international break but across all competitions they have won three of their previous four - a run of just one loss in five if you add in the away draw at the surprise package of Hull.
The Premier League table may not paint a pretty picture yet they navigated what could have been a tricky tie against Club Brugge to kick off their Champions League campaign with victory alongside progressing to the next round of the Carabao Cup.
When Villa welcomed Brentford at the beginning of February they were just above even money favourites. The Bees won the game 1-0 - although Villa posted 27 shots to their 6 - and they've gone from 2/1 outsiders that day to slight favourites for success here.
Brentford are good - really good at that. As I sat through a dominant first-half performance against Leeds at Elland Road I couldn't help but think "yeah, last season wasn't a one-off was it?" and they should have secured maximum points on offer. Leeds were fortunate to snatch one of them in the end.
It was a slightly different story in their trip to Bournemouth - another 1-1 draw - with the Cherries posting ten shots on target to the two Brentford had which found the net. Game state hardly a factor either with the hosts trailing for a grand total of four minutes in the first-half.
Villa may have had their issues in domestic contests so far but then this was exactly what happened last season. They failed to win any of their opening five, a run which included an away loss to Brentford, but ultimately enjoyed a campaign which delivered the Europa League and a fourth-placed finish.
ASTON VILLA TO WIN being in at 13/8 is always worth serious consideration in home games against non-big-six sides. They boasted the fourth-best home record in 2025/26.
It's particularly the case in the first-half of the season, where European football doesn't carry the significant weight it does in the second. Patchy form in March, April and May could well have been put down to focus being on success on the continent - they won 12 of 13 in the league from the end of September to the final days of December.
And while it's not in the 'ideal' category of game a home contest with Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday (an extra day of rest anyway) sees them an odds-on 4/6 for success, so there's little reason to suggest focus will be elsewhere.
We're taking a little bit of a risk given the contrasting league form of both in the opening exchanges of the season but it's a decent price play on a Villa side who have been consistently strong in the long term under Unai Emery's guidance.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This should be high on the Match of the Day billing, if the odds are to be believed.
Chelsea's meeting with Bournemouth is made a 1/2 shot (as a best price) that there's at least three goals scored, with bookmakers only slightly above even money for four or more.
It's hardly a surprise given their respective starts to the season. Chelsea, who I'm sure will conveniently have a few players back available from injury following the end of the internationals, have seen over 2.5 goals in six of their seven across all competitions - the game which didn't being a 2-0 home win over Sky Bet League One outfit Luton.
It's five of seven for Bournemouth with one of those which fell short being the home loss to Liverpool last time out. It has, at least, landed in all three of their contests on the road.
With that Chelsea entertainment has come CORNERS. There were 16 in the loss to Brentford and 14 as they were held at home to Hull. Game state is always a significant factor in corners betting and it certainly was the case on both occasions.
But then it works both ways. A total of 11 came as Brighton chased a way back into the game at Stamford Bridge while Fulham took six having been trailing for a significant part of their meeting at Craven Cottage.
It's a positive of backing corners in games involving Xabi Alonso's side. They are clearly an elite attacking unit when they're on it but they've shown defensive vulnerabilities and teams will know they will have chances to claw things back if the scoreline is close enough.
There's also the style factor as well. Bayer Leverkusen took the most corners of the 18 Bundesliga sides when winning a stunning title in 2023/24, following it up by sitting second to Bayern Munich in the metric by four the season after. On both occasions though, they conceded a good amount more than their main rival at the top.
It's perhaps worth pointing out at this point too that in the 24/25 campaign, only two sides conceded a higher amount than RB Leipzig - that was Marco Rose's (now at Bournemouth) final season at the helm. In the year before, they ranked third for corners taken.
Bookmakers go around the 11/8 mark and slightly above that the match corner count goes OVER 11.5 here. That's worth taking in a contest where both sides should see opportunities to strike.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Ipswich vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This is quite a significant game in an otherwise non-significant month of the season. Ipswich meet Fulham with both teams widely fancied to be among those swimming against the tide when it comes to survival.
The hosts have seen their price for the drop drift from the 4/6ish available in the summer to 5/4 now. For Fulham, they're now as short as 5/2 from the 11/2 previously available.
But why now? Ipswich have lost four of their last five; Fulham with one win over the same period, albeit with a couple of draws chucked in across their last three. Defeat following a three-week hiatus brings back the dread among supporters - 'the break hasn't fixed the issues' the likely thought process.
Creativity hasn't actually been a huge problem for either side but as you'd perhaps expect it's defensive woes which have held them back. Both sit in the top four for expected goals against (xGA) highlighting the quality of chances they are both allowing to the opposition.
Unsurprisingly then, both are also in the top five for shots conceded. The away side much better in terms of shots taken volume (14 more than Ipswich after five games), with 25 coming in the loss to Crystal Palace - a team expected to be in the same area of the table as both on display here.
It's worth investigating the match shots line here, with 11/8 available on OVER 27.5 in the contest. That's just for shots, they don't have to be on target.
While it's a very small sample size of two games, Fulham are yet to lead in an away league game this season. They took seven shots in the 20 minutes if you include added time after going behind late at Sunderland.
The first hour of their draw with Manchester United delivered 26 shots (nine from Fulham) before an own goal gave them the lead. There were 32 when they were beaten by Chelsea on opening weekend.
While they were a better level of opposition, the open nature of this contest could lead to efforts at both ends. The 'significant' nature could well make it cagey but then there's an importance on securing victory.
Ipswich's away loss at Everton returned 34 match shots, while their own 3-2 thriller against Palace somehow fell to 23 shots despite the high-scoring nature of it.
A home win puts Ipswich in a good position at this early stage while further piling the pressure on Álvaro Arbeloa and Fulham. The game state should be there as both sides aim for victory.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Sunderland vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
A battle of two of the Premier League's European representatives, although it's Brighton who have certainly impressed far more in the opening exchanges of the new campaign.
Fabian Hürzeler's side have earned ten points from a possible 15 with a 3-0 thrashing of champions Arsenal in their final game before the international break making people sit up and pay attention if they were so foolish not to be doing so already.
That came a week after a 5-0 hammering of Coventry, with a come-from-behind 3-2 win at Manchester United wedged in between. They certainly wouldn't have wanted the break when it came.
Will that prove costly in disrupting their momentum? Perhaps, it's difficult to say. That's not to suggest they won't win here but rather you surely want to keep playing football when you score 11 goals in a seven-day period.
Sunderland's Brian Brobbey netted a hat-trick but was still on the losing side in their visit to Manchester City. His injury picked up in the Netherlands' 1-1 draw with Germany certainly a blow for his club side.
It puts pressure on Wilson Isidor to deliver in his absence - he netted six times in 32 outings last season. Sunderland weren't so reliant on one striker from a purely goal-scoring perspective but then they were a low-scoring side. That has somewhat continued into the new campaign.
It's slightly put me off backing goals in this contest, but I am happy enough to side with Brighton making a solid start and siding with the 19/20 for 1+ BRIGHTON GOALS IN THE FIRST-HALF, with a smaller stakes play on the 11/2 for 2+.
The Seagulls have netted at least once before the break in six of their previous seven across all competitions, with two or more coming in three of those.
It may have only happened against Sunderland in two of their seven competitive games so far but then they've had a decent fixture list, particularly at home. The only game you could point to would be Arsenal although they created 0.77 expected goals (xG) worth of chances prior to half-time.
City were 3-2 up after 43 minutes of that thriller at the Etihad and Brighton, across the first weeks of this season, have demonstrated their attack is as strong, if not better, than Enzo Maresca's side.
Brighton have struck in the first-half of three of their four away in all competitions and the one game which fell short was the Conference League trip to Tromso, a game in which they posted 12 first-half shots of which five were on target.
We may have had a few weeks off domestic top-flight football but I'm willing to side with the visitors to pick up where they left off.
Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 09:25 BST (08/10/26)
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