Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Calvert-Lewin and Gabriel Magalhaes to commit 2+ fouls each at 11/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Calvert-Lewin and Gabriel card double at 35/1 (bet365)
Arsenal’s faultless start to the campaign came to an abrupt halt on the south coast.
Brighton beat them 3-0 in their last game before the international break, ending a run of seven straight wins, five of which came to nil.
It’ll be interesting to see how Mikel Arteta’s side react to the defeat, their Spanish supremo has certainly had plenty of time to stew on it.
Last season, Arsenal only lost seven games in 90 minutes, four of which came in their final 14 matches in all competitions.
Their first defeat of last campaign came at Anfield. Arsenal won their next match against Nottingham Forest 3-0, kick starting an unbeaten run stretching 18 games during which the Gunners won 15.
I get the sense the Seagulls could’ve poked the bear here.
That said, opponents Leeds are no soft touch.
Arsenal beat them by an aggregate scoreline of 9-0 in the Premier League last season but Daniel Farke’s evolved since then and his squad got a lot stronger this summer.
Leeds are unbeaten in five league games (W2 D3) although they are outperforming their defensive metrics and slightly outperforming their xPTS.
Plus, in a strange quirk they seem to play their best stuff under the lights at Elland Road, so the visitors are probably best avoided in the 1x2.
Arsenal to win to nil at 5/4 or the unders at evens are both tempting because this is the early kick-off following a long international break and both squads will have put in some serious air miles.
I have gone for a different approach though targeting the fouls and cards markets with one particular match-up in mind.
GABRIEL MAGALHAES will be opposing DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN and the Leeds frontman hasn’t been afraid to throw his weight around this campaign.
Calvert-Lewin has picked up three cards in five appearances and committed 10 fouls. Interestingly, he’s also drawn 20 fouls across his last 16 appearances.
At 5/1 his price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth a punt as a single. That’s marginal value based on his career cards per 90 average of 0.17 without considering his cynical form this season.
Putting it alongside GABRIEL in a CARD DOUBLE also appeals at 35/1. Backing both players TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS is the final bet at 11s.
Gabriel committed at least one foul in 15 of his last 20 Arsenal appearances, hitting this line four times across that sample and five times across his last 15 appearances at The Emirates.
Odds correct at 16:30 BST (10/10/26)
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