Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Lewis Miley to be shown a card at 19/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Milan van Ewijk to be shown a card at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Miley & Van Ewijk both to be shown a card at 20/1 (General)
This is perhaps the most intriguing of Gameweek 6 match-ups to choose for the Monday Night Football slot.
Coventry meet Newcastle with both sides still undergoing a period of adjustment. For the hosts, a much-needed victory over Nottingham Forest came with a slight annoyance of an immediate three-week break in the aftermath as they continue to adapt to life in the top-flight.
Newcastle have showed signs of life under Matthias Jaissle - a tough gig to inherit given the successful spell delivered by Eddie Howe. A 4-1 humbling by Leeds a reminder that there is still work to do following a summer of significant change.
I also use the word intriguing because neither side has particularly excelled on the usual metrics associated with some of the betting markets. The only one really in Newcastle's favour is match goals with four of five going over 2.5. For the Sky Blues though, that figure stands at just two games.
This is a meeting of two of the poorest sides on the underlying metrics across the opening exchanges of the campaign. Only Aston Villa (-4.35) sit with a worse expected goal difference (xGD) - both of the teams involved on Monday sat on -3.76.
It's the same when you focus on total shots attempted. Newcastle rank ever so slightly better for efforts on target (where Forest now join Coventry and Villa in the bottom three). Neither particularly prolific for corners taken either which is hardly a surprise when you consider the crossing numbers.
So perhaps siding with a low-scoring game is the way to go. However, there is an added risk of taking that approach in a contest with two defences who have demonstrated they can be vulnerable. Both sides will be thinking this may be an opportunity to finally get their attacks going.
This could be an evening which does see cards. Referee John Brooks is certainly on the stricter end of the scale and he's been appointed to this - all three of his Premier League outings this season delivering at least five yellows.
While neither side consistently posts high crossing figures they have demonstrated a preference to attack down their flanks. Both have also displayed a desire to build on their left side. This makes a couple of players worth targeting.
For Newcastle, LEWIS MILEY could continue in his right-back role and his price TO BE CARDED is near 5/1. On the Coventry side of things, MILAN VAN EWIJK is back from injury and should take his position on the right side of a back-five. He's in at 4/1 in the same market.
We'll start with Miley as the bigger price of the pair. The one potential issue is that Amar Dedic has returned to training but it may still be a push to put him straight back into the XI. Jaissle told reporters on Thursday that "we hope that three, four players are ready to be in the squad."
If Miley stays at right-back, he should be a bit more involved on the defensive side of things. Last season, in his seven Premier League games where he started in the position, he returned a total of 14 tackles (which was only second to Bruno Guimaraes among Newcastle players in that period), while his 11 interceptions was the most of anyone in that squad.
Granted, the foul count could have been higher but it only needs one mis-timed attempt to go into the referee's book - something which feels like it has far more potential when a player is featuring out of their normal position.
The frustration would be if Dedic is in from the start but even then Miley will have some responsibility to cover the wide attacks from his midfield position. While the potential of the bet is shortened slightly, he should still have involvement from the off in this Newcastle side.
For Coventry, Frank Lampard will have a slight dilemma of what to do in that wing-back position after asking midfielder Caleb Yirenkyi to cover the position in Nottingham. However, Van Ewijk is the natural option and should regain his spot.
He was carded in their narrow away defeat at Manchester City but was a regular in this area last season as they won the Sky Bet Championship title. A total of eight yellows were shown in 43 starts.
He'll have the task of dealing with the threat of Harvey Barnes down that side - a player who has been fouled at least three times in two of five league outings this season - with the potential of coming up against the lively Bazoumana Touré later on in the contest.
In a game which could be tense or scrappy at times, siding with MILEY and VAN EWIJK to catch the referee's attention feels the best avenue to explore at the prices, with a smaller stakes play on the double also advised.
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (09/10/26)
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