Premier League: Are long-range shots and goals back?

After years of being told by data nerds, like me, that shooting from distance is stupid - that you should instead look to carve out a ‘better’ chance, one with a higher probability of being scored - it seems as though the Premier League may be ready to rip up that script.

Shooting from distance had become something of a dying art in the top flight, with teams deliberately avoiding low-percentage efforts in favour of smarter, higher-value opportunities. But the early signs this season suggest that may no longer be the case.

We are only five games into the season, so this is a very small sample of 50 matches, but the numbers show a clear shift towards taking more attempts from range than we have seen in recent seasons.

There have been 496 shots from distance, an average of 9.9 per game. At the same stage last season, there had been just 365 shots from range - 7.3 per game - with this season’s figure the highest across the opening five matchdays of any of the last four campaigns.

Unsurprisingly, the number of shots on target from outside the box is up too, from 78 at this stage last season to 104. More strikingly, we have seen almost double the number of long-range goals through five matchdays: 23 compared with 13.

This could, of course, simply be noise. It is a tiny sample and could be a freak occurrence that analysts and coaches spend the international break trying to nip in the bud.

Or it could be that shooting from distance is becoming the new edge.

Perhaps teams are shifting opponents from side to side specifically to create space on the edge of the box for a shot. Maybe opponents aren’t expecting the attempt, or are being told to ‘allow’ it, not to close down as aggressively, or instead to protect a more dangerous passing lane, creating the perfect opportunity for an opponent to pull the trigger.

It could be as simple as teams losing patience when trailing and taking more speculative efforts.

Whatever the reason, it is a trend worth following from a betting perspective when the Premier League returns after the international break.
Many firms offer player shot-on-target-from-outside-the-box markets, while some also price up simply having an attempt from distance.

Wingers and midfielders are generally priced fairly short in these markets but there are some big, juicy prices available on centre-backs, and that is where things get interesting.

Through the first five gameweeks, we have seen 26 shots from outside the box from central defenders, the most at this stage of any of the last four seasons.

That works out at an average of 0.52 long-range shots per game, or 5.2 per gameweek.

The leader in this category is Manchester United’s LISANDRO MARTINEZ, who has taken four shots from distance and hit the target twice.
Hull’s centre-backs are of interest too, with NOBEL MENDY and JOHN EGAN combining for five attempts from distance, three of which have been on target.

Even more interestingly, the Tigers duo have taken three shots from the halfway line between them, with two hitting the target.

Unfortunately, no bookmakers price up a shot from inside a player’s own half, but it does at least highlight the intent of defenders who are willing to break up play, spot a goalkeeper well out of his goal and try an audacious effort.

Nottingham Forest’s JAIR CUNHA is another interesting candidate having taken two shots from outside the box this term. He plays on the right side of a back three, giving him even more licence than most defenders to get involved in attacks and potentially find himself in shooting positions.

So, while the prices around the set-piece angle of backing a centre-back goalscorer have dwindled over the course of the last season, perhaps the new edge is to back a centre-back to have a shot, or a shot on target, from distance.

The prices vary, but for context, Hull’s Mendy was 25/1 for 1+ shot on target from outside the box away at Chelsea, while Lewis Dunk was 33/1 for the same at home to Arsenal.

In terms of a centre-back scoring from outside the box, while not in the Premier League, for a price context during the international break Spain's Pau Cubarsi was 150/1.

Maybe, just maybe, the Thunderbastard is back, and maybe, just maybe the value lies in the centre-backs.

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Home of This Week's Acca
• Football and other sports tips
• Download the Sporting Life app
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.