Newcastle v Southampton tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews Southampton's trip to Newcastle, picking out his best bet and a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Southampton to beat Newcastle at 9/5 (General)
Two games into the new Premier League season and Newcastle fans are experiencing a familiar feeling, yet to pick up a point and third from bottom only by virtue of goal difference.
The Magpies were far from woeful against West Ham on the opening weekend however, looking dangerous on the counter, but they conceded poor goals against the Hammers, and four of them.
Again, against Aston Villa they were somewhat unfortunate, Danny Ings netting a sublime overhead kick before Villa were awarded a somewhat controversial penalty.
Newcastle did limit Dean Smith's side to just 0.55 non-penalty expected goals in that match, but they themselves only created 0.71 xGF, managing just one shot on target.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Newcastle 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Southampton 7/4
Already, this season is turning into a struggle for Steve Bruce’s men and as raucous as St James’ Park can be when things are going well, it can also be a hostile atmosphere when things take a turn for the worse.
There has been a lot of doom and gloom surrounding Southampton in the lead up to this campaign, particularly after losing their top scorer Ings to Villa, as well as Jannik Vestergaard to Leicester, but they have recruited in typically-Southampton fashion, bringing in under-the-radar players for little money, such as right-back Tino Livramento, who was outstanding against Manchester United at the weekend.
An opening-day defeat to Everton was far from ideal, but the Saints looked far from out of their depth against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side on Sunday, before thrashing Newport 8-0 in the Carabao Cup, employing Ralph Hasenhuttl’s trademark high press to good effect on the two latter occasions.
A similar approach could unsettle what is already an under-pressure Newcastle side, and if Southampton can cut off the supply lines to both Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, the Magpies may struggle to get out.
Southampton’s box-shaped press is designed to prevent any passes from defence into midfield, which seriously hampers Newcastle’s chances of getting their more creative players on the ball.
With Bruce’s centre-halves resorting to long hopeful balls forward, Southampton should be able to pick up the pieces and take the game to the home side, while any dawdling on the ball from a Newcastle defender will be rapidly pounced upon by the Saints’ voracious forward line.
With Southampton’s energetic full-backs also likely to push back Newcastle’s wing-backs, the home advantage held by the Magpies could quickly disappear and, with that in mind, backing SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN at 9/5 makes plenty of appeal.
Hasenhuttl is arguably facing his biggest challenge as Southampton boss this season, but though the Saints have undoubtedly lost some key players, it is hardly the first time such a fate has befallen the club, and they always rebuild in the correct way.
Last season the Saints were 5/4 to win at St James’ Park, while Newcastle were 9/4. That means the layers think Newcastle are 10% more likely to win the fixture this season, and Southampton are 10% less likely, probabilities that seem like an overreaction.
Newcastle v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Southampton to win at 9/5 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (26/08/21)
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